US embassy cable - 02ABUJA776

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000776 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR SIGNALS THAT 
OBASANJO WILL RUN IN 2003 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d). 
 
 
1. (U) President Obasanjo's Senate Liaison Officer 
Kashim Imam told reporters March 5 at the National Assembly 
that President Obasanjo will run in 2003 because "there is no 
credible alternative to him." Imam added, "not only will he 
run on the strength of our achievements, but also he will be 
reelected because he has performed." 
 
 
2.  (C) According to PDP National Youth Director Ibrahim Sidi 
Bamailli, Imam made his statement after the Presidential 
Villa learned of a move led by House Speaker Na 'Abba for 
several Representatives to send a joint missive to the PDP 
leadership opposing Obasanjo as the party's Presidential 
candidate in 2003. By making this pronouncement, they hoped 
to place Obasanjo on the defensive, Bamailli maintained. If 
he announced his candidacy after their action, he would be 
viewed as the one splitting the party, the Na'Abba group 
felt. However, because many in this rival group were abroad 
for the Hajj, the decision to send the statement was never 
finalized. The Presidency decided that Imam should preempt 
the mavericks by making a pro-Obasanjo statement before they 
could re-assemble. 
 
 
3. (C) During a March 5 breakfast meeting, Lino Adesanya, a 
Lagos-based businessman with close contacts in the PDP, 
confirmed to Ambassador Jeter that party rebels have been 
seriously caucusing about making a public statement opposing 
Obasanjo before he formally announces his reelection decision. 
 
 
4.  (C) Comment : Imam's statement may be part reiteration, 
part preemptive strike.  Presidential advisors periodically 
make statements that Obasanjo will run again, preserving 
their boss's flexibility on the question. Works Minister 
Anenih's "there is no vacancy in the Villa" remark last year 
was the most famous and set the tone.  While Obasanjo may 
still be mulling over his choices, some advisors publicly 
have lent their voices to the reelection option in hopes of 
influencing Obasanjo and to remind the public that Obasanjo 
has not decided against running. 
 
 
5. (C) Comment: The timing of Imam's statement also may have 
been influenced by news of the rebel group's intentions. 
Obasanjo's people understand that the player who punches last 
usually gets called for the foul. They may have felt it 
important to strike first so that Na'Abba and company will be 
perceived as undermining party unity should they make an 
anti-Obasanjo statement close on the heels of Imam's positive 
one.  The choice of Imam, son of a major political figure in 
Nigerian political history, was likely intended to stem 
growing Northern opposition to a second Obasanjo term.  In 
that regard, it will have little effect. While Imam's 
statement may have prevented the Na' Abba group's flanking 
action this time, the battle has just started. Other 
skirmishes between Obasanjo friends and foes are certain. End 
Comment. 
Jeter