US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI594

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000594 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2015 
TAGS: KISL, PGOV, PINR, PREL, PTER, SCUL, IN, IR, IZ, India-Iraq 
SUBJECT: INDIA'S SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE DOMINATES MUSLIM 
ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE IRAQ ELECTION 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Indian Shias are excited about the prospect 
of a Shia government in Iraq, revere Ayatollah Sistani and 
support the January 30 election.  This does not mean, 
however, that they are pro-American, as they also want US 
troops to depart Iraq as soon as possible and Iraq and Iran 
to have close and friendly ties.  A leading Shia cleric 
reflected the views of the larger community when he asserted 
that India's Sunnis do not share these views and distrust the 
Shia assent to power in Iraq, with some harboring quiet 
sympathy with the insurgency and its call for an election 
boycott.  Although influential in their stronghold in 
Lucknow, the Shia are a relatively small and economically 
disadvantaged community in India (numbering an estimated 14 
million), and as a result, their views regarding events in 
Iraq will not be the last word on Indian reaction to the Iraq 
elections.  However, we will seek to encourage them to 
project their support for upcoming elections to wider Indian 
audiences.  End Summary. 
 
Zahir Iftikhari 
--------------- 
 
2.  (C) Zahir Iftikhari is an influential Shia cleric from 
Lucknow.  His grandfather was a famous Shia scholar, who 
wrote a number of influential books on Islam.  Iftikhari is 
playing a prominent role in recent Indian Shia moves to leave 
the current Muslim Personal Law Board and establish a 
strictly Shia organization.  He spent seventeen years 
studying Islam in Iraq and is a fluent Arabic speaker, 
although he does not speak English.  With his sterling 
reputation and large following, Iftikhari often speaks on 
behalf of India's Shia community.  Like many Indian Shia, he 
follows Iraqi politics in minute detail.  He met with Poloff 
on January 20. 
 
Iraqi Shias' Big Day 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Iftikhari asserted that Indian Shias strongly support 
the January 30 Iraqi elections, and predicted that there 
would be a large Shia turnout.  January 30 is a Shia holiday 
and Iraqi Shias are likely to be out and about and in a 
festive mood.  Iftikhari expected Iraqi Shias to ignore the 
Sunni boycott call, and looked forward to a peaceful 
assumption of power by their community, after having been 
denied political rights under Sunni rule for so long. 
 
4.  (C) Iftikhari was adamant that Iraqi Shia would not 
establish an Iranian style theocracy when they assume power 
in Baghdad.  Pointing out that the Shia had experienced 
repression, murder and destruction of their holy places under 
Saddam, he projected that they would be munificent towards 
the Sunni, not attempt to gain retribution, and make 
concessions to head off communal violence.  Iftikhari 
downplayed the likelihood of a Sunni/Shia civil war after the 
election, asserting that Baathist supporters of Saddam are 
behind most of the terrorism, and that a quick trial and 
execution of Saddam and his associates would end the violence 
and the threat of civil war. 
 
Minority Within a Minority 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) According to Iftikhari, Shias in India tolerate their 
Sunni brethren, but the Sunnis have no tolerance for Shia 
Islam, and treat Shias as second class citizens.  He asserted 
that this difference is reflected in the attitudes of the two 
communities regarding the Iraqi election, with Indian Sunni 
supporting a boycott and delay and Shias eager to see the 
election go forward as planned.  Likewise, he noted, Indian 
Shia have no sympathy with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other 
Sunnis in Iran who are committing acts of terrorism, implying 
that Indian Sunnis are more equivocal on this score. 
 
6.  (C) Iftikhari asserted that Indian Shias are united 
behind Ayatollah Sistani and will adhere to his calls to 
support the Iraq election and to create a secular state. 
Indian Shia also want strict controls on the power of the 
Iraqi government to interfere with the personal lives of 
Iraq's citizens, as the Indian Shia are a minority within the 
larger Indian Muslim minority, and realize the importance of 
tolerance. 
 
7.  (C) Although Iran is the leading Shia nation, Iftikari 
pointed out, that its government has little or no credibility 
with Indian Shias, who view it as too orthodox and 
authoritarian.  Despite this, Indian Shia praise Ayatollah 
Khomeini for fighting only against Iraq's Baathist government 
and never supporting terrorism against Sunni civilians.  He 
also claimed that Khomeini only overthrew the Shah after his 
despotism became unbearable, and with the "complete support 
of Iran's population."  He predicted that after the election 
there would be much closer interaction between Iran and Iraq, 
as "99 percent of Iranians" will come to Iraq to visit the 
holy places. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Iftikhari is only one of many Shia leaders who have 
told Poloff of their support for the elections in Iraq. 
However, this does not necessarily translate into backing for 
continued American involvement there.  Most Shia expect 
Sistani to be the real power in Iraq after the polls, that he 
will call for the coalition forces to withdraw, and that the 
Iraqi government will distance itself from the US after our 
troops depart.  Sunni contacts confirm Iftikari's assessment, 
in that they largely oppose American involvement in Iraq and 
the elections, which they view as a Shia power grab.  India's 
shia -- especially the clerical hierarchy in Lucknow -- 
maintain a tight link to Iraq, and were a factor in the GOI's 
2002 decision not to deploy military forces.  However, the 
Shia are a minority within the Muslim community (estimated at 
10 percent of 140 million), so their view is not the last 
word on Indian reaction to the Iraq elections. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize Considered 
MULFORD