US embassy cable - 05ZAGREB119

UNCLAS  ZAGREB 000119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT:  Aftermath of Presidential Elections: New Energy for 
Opposition Parties and Renewed Calls for Electoral Reform 
 
REF: Zagreb 78 
 
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Summary and Comment 
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1. (SBU) Croatian President Stjepan Mesic was re-elected to a 
second five-year term on January 16, defeating his ruling party 
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) opponent Jadranka Kosor 66 to 34 
percent.  Four months before local elections (scheduled for May 
17, 2005), Mesic's victory could energize the opposition parties 
that rallied behind him.  Kosor's self-described "respectable" 
finish was significantly boosted by Bosnian Croat votes at polling 
stations in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).  Continued reports of 
small-scale irregularities (reftel) are renewing calls for 
election law reform, with Mesic out front pushing for an end to 
diaspora voting, which would require constitutional changes.  With 
the HDZ now narrowly controlling the parliament, it will want to 
keep the four "diaspora" seats it holds.  President Mesic's 
support for the idea of disenfranchising the diaspora, now that 
the issue is in the eye of a sympathetic public, could force at 
least some important reforms at the margins to clean up a few 
legal and procedural loopholes that open the door to embarrassing 
(if not widespread) irregularities.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
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Easy Win ... 
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2. (U) Croatian President Stjepan Mesic easily won a second term 
in the second round of presidential elections, defeating the HDZ's 
Jadranka Kosor by a 2 to 1 margin.  Voter turnout was 51 percent, 
similar to first-round turnout.  Mesic won in 19 counties and in 
all but one major city; Kosor won in two counties by a narrow 
margin, and attracted the vast majority of the Croatian diaspora, 
a segment traditionally loyal to the HDZ.  Some ten opposition 
parties backed Mesic's candidacy, including the Social Democrats 
(SDP), his former People's Party (HNS) and the Peasant Party 
(HSS). 
 
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... Weakens HDZ for Local Elections? 
------------------------------------ 
 
3. (U) Although HDZ leaders portray their score as a "respectable 
result," analysts agree that Mesic's victory confirmed the 
declining popularity of Croatia's biggest party.  Exit polls 
indicated that Mesic led by 71 to 29 percent of the vote in 
Croatia itself, while Kosor's figures increased only after the 
votes from the diaspora, mainly in BiH, were added.  In addition, 
hard right voters did not swing disproportionately to Kosor in the 
runoff, despite some ham-handed HDZ attempts to exploit Mesic's 
sealed ICTY testimony to sway voters. 
 
4. (U) Opposition parties now hope to exploit Mesic's victory in 
the local elections scheduled in May.  SDP leader Ivica Racan said 
Mesic's re-election is the first victory and the local elections 
will bring a second, setting up a showdown between the opposition 
and the HDZ and forcing early parliamentary elections (not due 
until 2007).  Mesic himself said he would not necessarily be 
neutral at the local elections, suggesting he might return the 
favor to the opposition parties that rallied behind him. 
 
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Reform Needed 
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5.  (SBU) Small-scale voting irregularities, primarily in BiH, 
similar to that in the first round (reftel), are invigorating 
proponents of electoral reform.  After the first round, election 
monitoring NGO GONG identified a number of irregularities.  These 
included dead people on voter lists (some even checked off as 
having voted) and the addition of names to the voter list on the 
spot (especially in BiH).  Adding names on election day is legal, 
but opens the door to double voting.  A local journalist of dual 
citizenship proved that this was easy to do - first casting her 
vote in Karlovac, just south of Zagreb, and then crossing into BiH 
and voting again in Mostar.  A central register of voters would 
eliminate this problem.  NGO Juris Protecta estimates that the 
number of names on Croatian voter lists is at least half a million 
higher than the number of the actual voters.  Most recently, the 
GoC announced it would seek to resolve this problem before local 
elections in May. 
 
6.  (U) Parliament Speaker Vladimir Seks said on January 17 that 
the Local Election Law would be changed to allow only actual 
residents to vote, not those who live elsewhere and only have a 
registered residence in Croatia.  This does not address the 
diaspora vote -- as Croatian citizens abroad do not vote in local 
elections -- but it could result in more accurate voter lists that 
 
 
will reduce the possibility of irregularities at future elections. 
While saying that diaspora citizens should be equal to any other 
Croatian citizens, Prime Minister Sanader noted that the GoC would 
initiate the signing of a bilateral agreement with BiH that could 
regulate the voting status of dual citizens. 
 
FRANK 
 
 
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