US embassy cable - 02HARARE618

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000618 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/FO AND AF/S 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZER 
ABUJA FOR AMBASSADOR JETER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, NI 
SUBJECT: MARCH 7 MEETING WITH NIGERIAN ELECTION 
DELEGATION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D 
 
1. (C) THE AMBASSADOR MET MARCH 8 WITH THE HEAD OF 
THE NIGERIAN ELECTION OBSERVER DELEGATION CHIEF 
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SHONEKAN, THE NIGERIAN ELECTION COMMISSION 
REPRESENTATIVE AND HIGH COMMISSIONER JUTA.  SHONEKAN 
HAD EARLIER BEEN PRESIDENT OBASSANJO'S SPECIAL 
EMISSARY TO ZIMBABWE FOR THE ABUJA PROCESS AND 
ACCOMPANIED OBASSANJO ON HIS LATE JANUARY VISIT TO 
ZIMBABWE TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND MDC 
LEADER TSVANGIRAI.  SHONEKAN, WHO SAID HE WAS 
SURPRISED THAT OBASSANJO HAD SELECTED HIM FOR THIS 
ELECTION MISSION, PUT HIS EMPHASIS ON THE NEED FOR 
ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNDER WHICHEVER 
CANDIDATE WAS ELECTED.  HE RELATED THE COMMITMENTS 
TO END VIOLENCE AND RUN A FAIR ELECTION MADE BY 
PRESIDENT MUGABE DURING HIS JANUARY VISIT. BUT, 
SHONEKAN NOT SEEM TO DRAW THE APPROPRIATE 
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT MUGABE'S LACK OF GOOD FAITH WHEN 
THE AMBASSADOR OUTLINED THE GOVERNMENT-ORGANIZED 
CAMPAIGN OF TARGETED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WHICH 
WAS CONTINUING AND THE PROCEDURAL MANIPULATIONS AT 
WORK.  SHONEKAN WAS PLEASED WITH HIS MEETING WITH 
MDC LEADER TSVANGIRAI, AND PARTICULARLY HIS 
WILLINGNESS TO FORM A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT, BUT 
WAS NOT DISTRESSED ABOUT THE ABSENCE OF INDICATIONS 
OF CONCILIATORY SIGNALS FROM ZANU-PF. 
 
2.(C) THE NIGERIAN ELECTION COMMISSIONER (WE DID NOT GET 
HIS NAME.) AND THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER WERE MORE 
ENGAGED.  THEY EXPRESSED PARTICULAR DISTRESS ABOUT THE 
REPORT THAT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ARMED FORCES MEMBERS 
HAD VOTED ABSENTEE.  THE ELECTION REGISTRAR HAD 
CONFIRMED TO THEM THAT THIS WAS SO, BUT SAID HE DID NOT 
KNOW UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES THEY HAD VOTED. THE 
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AMBASSADOR CONFIRMED THAT OUR INFORMATION SHOWED THAT 
THEY HAD VOTED UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF THEIR COMMANDING 
OFFICER.  THE ELECTION COMMISSIONER EXPRESSED CONCERN 
OVER THE LAST-MINUTE CHANGES IN ELECTION PROCEDURES AND 
THE HIGH COMMISSIONER EXPRESSED CONCERN WHEN HE RECEIVED 
A CALL FROM HIS ELECTION OBSERVERS IN MUTARE REPORTING 
THAT ZANU-PF ACTIVISTS HAD BEEN GIVEN ELECTION OBSERVER 
BADGES IDENTICAL TO THOSE OF HIS DELEGATION. 
 
3. (C) CHIEF SHONEKAN'S LACK OF ENGAGEMENT IN THE KEY 
ELECTION ISSUES WAS NOTABLE AND WE HAVE LITTLE 
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT RECOMMENDATIONS HE WILL MAKE TO 
PRESIDENT OBASSANJO FOLLOWING THE ELECTIONS.  HE EVEN 
SEEMED TO SHRUG OFF OUR COMMENT THAT PRESIDENTS 
OBASSANJO AND MBEKI HAD THE GREATEST CAPACITY TO 
CONVINCE PRESIDENT MUGABE TO ACCEPT A PEACEFUL 
DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION.   HC JUTA, ON THE OTHER HAND, WAS 
MORE ENGAGED THAN WE HAVE EVER SEEN HIM AND HE MADE A 
POINT OF SUGGESTING THAT WE BE IN CONTACT ON MONDAY TO 
COMPARE NOTES.  WE KNOW THAT JUTA WAS RECENTLY CALLED 
HOME TO RECOMMEND HOW PRESIDENT OBASSANJO COULD BE 
HELPFUL AND HE SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE RESPONSIBILITY 
SERIOUSLY. 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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