US embassy cable - 05ANKARA361

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000361 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PLS PASS TO NEA/I, S/CT AND EU/SE DOUG SILLIMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 
TAGS: OVIP, PTER, TU 
SUBJECT: CENTCOM COMMANDER'S MEETING WITH DEPUTY OF THE 
TURKISH GENERAL STAFF 
 
REF: A. AMBASSADOR ERIC S. EDELMAN 
     B. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric S. Edelman: Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (S) SUMMARY. GEN Abizaid met with Turkey's DCHOD GEN Ilker 
Basbug on January 12.  Both presented assessments of Iraq, 
Afghanistan, and U.S.-TU relations.  Basbug reiterated the 
objectives of Turkish policies on Iraq-united, peaceful, 
democratic, and whole.  Both sides agreed the upcoming 
elections were critical and Basbug noted Turkey's consistent 
urging of strong Sunni participation.  Kirkuk's unique status 
also remains high on the list of Turkish concerns.  Basbug 
described the U.S.-Turkish relationship as strong and based 
on common interests, claiming that media stories don't truly 
reflect the state of our relationship.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) On January 12, GEN Abizaid met with GEN Ilker Basbug, 
Deputy Chief, Turkish General Staff, to discuss the security 
situation and upcoming election in Iraq, Afghanistan, and 
U.S.-Turkish relations.  Accompanying Basbug were TGS Chief 
of Operations (J-3) LG Metin Yavuz Yalcin, TGS Chief Plans 
and Principles (J-5) LG Aydogan Babaoglu, and Executive 
Secretary MAJ Murat Yetkin.  GEN Abizaid was joined by the 
 
SIPDIS 
Ambassador, EUCOM Director of Strategy, Plans and Assessments 
MG Scott Gration, Turkey Office of Defense Cooperation Chief 
MG Peter Sutton, GEN Abizaid's Executive Officer Col Joe 
Reynes, PolMilCouns, and Turkey DATT Roman Hrycaj 
(notetaker). 
 
3. (C) GEN Basbug began by describing the U.S.-Turkish 
relationship as "...a strong and unique partnership and 
friendship based on shared common ways and interests."  He 
added that, "We believe coordination, consultation and 
cooperation between allies is important and can overcome all 
possible problems." Then directing his thoughts directly to 
GEN Abizaid he said, "You are carrying a heavy and historic 
responsibility on your shoulders." 
 
4. (C) After expressing his appreciation for GEN Basbug's 
hospitality, GEN Abizaid assessed current conditions in Iraq. 
 He said, and the situation in Iraq is very complex and 
easily misunderstood by outside observers.  He described the 
old order as not completely defeated, but resilient and 
desperate to remain in power.  Salifist and Al-Zarqawi 
extremist types hate the idea of elections and would do 
anything to prevent them.  He predicted, that Shi'a, Kurds 
and Turkmen would participate strongly.  The Sunni would, 
too, except for the intimidation.  On this election they 
would be underrepresented, but that shouldn't interfere with 
the selection of a representative Iraqi government with a 
future for all.  GEN Abizaid said he thought all groups will 
reach out to the Sunni and all will participate in developing 
a new constitution, but the process of drafting and ratifying 
a new constitution was more important--and more fraught with 
difficulty--than attaining participation in the election, he 
added. 
 
5. (C) Gen. Abizaid noted that Turkey's role was crucial to 
success in Iraq.  He added, that he was confident problems 
could be overcome by liaison work and discussions at every 
level.  He reiterated our goal of an Iraq without terrorist 
groups or sanctuaries and saw interests of Turkey, the United 
States and Iraq, too, as congruent.  GEN Abizaid also pointed 
out that since 30 June 2004, more Iraqi soldiers and police 
have died in Iraq than Americans, a fact he said is lost on 
both the Turkish and American publics. Abizaid stressed that 
the insurgency in Iraq was not a revolt of the Sunni 
community.  Since many if not most of the casualties are 
Sunni.  He continued, "What we are doing in Iraq is important 
for Iraq and the region, and will ultimately be successful." 
GEN Abizaid also noted the U.S. military effort in Iraq 
cannot be successful without the logistical flow through 
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey. 
 
6. (C) GEN Basbug responded that the Turkish public's 
position on Iraq has been well known by U.S. officials.  He 
said the main objective of Turkish policies is a united, 
peaceful and democratic Iraq.  Keeping Irag's political and 
territorial integrity is also very important.  Basbug asked 
if there were a possibility the elections might not occur on 
30 January.  GEN Abizaid responded, that the clear U.S. 
position is that the elections will take place 30 January, 
but that they weren't U.S. elections.  The Iraqi government 
makes the decisions regarding the polls, he noted.  He added 
that the Iraqi government is planning for 30 January, and 
that there would be no exceptions.  The CENTCOM commander 
detailed additional thoughts.  He expects the polls to be 
open in Mosul, but opined that if the voter intimidation 
(directed primarily against the Sunni) is successful, the 
Sunni Arab turnout will be less then the Shi'a or Kurds. 
However, there are Sunni names on every ballot.  GEN Abizaid 
reminded Basbug that the peo 
ple against the elections are desperate, knowing they can't 
survive them after having committed crimes (including mass 
murder) for 30 years.  Abizaid concluded by saying he 
believed that in the period immediately after the elections 
there would be violence against the new leaders, but a civil 
war was unlikely (though CENTCOM will vigilantly look for 
warning signs). 
 
7. (C) GEN Basbug referred to recent tensions in the Mosul 
area and asked about its effect.  GEN Abizaid replied that 
Mosul had seen a decrease in tension as insurgent activity 
now is less than a week ago because of U.S. Army battalions 
and an ING battalion had been moved to Mosul.  He noted the 
situation had improved to the point that in some 
neighborhoods people were applauding as captured insurgents 
were taken away.  However, he also said he thinks the enemy 
will try to kill as many as possible in the next few days. 
 
8. (C) GEN Basbug agreed with Abizaid that the insurgents are 
trying to stop the elections, but expressed the belief that 
if the election proceeds and the results are accepted, the 
security situation will improve.  Basbug expected the 
post-election period when the constitution would be drafted 
and put to a referendum, would be difficult.  He said he 
thought the discussion about the constitution would be more 
contentious than the elections "by far".  Basbug worried that 
the TAL gave the Kurds a veto over the constitution; GEN 
Abizaid noted that the TAL actually gives a veto to any three 
provinces, noting that these could also be Sunni provinces. 
GEN Abizaid added that many of the unanswered questions will 
be decided in the process of creating and approving a new 
constitution: e.g. What is the role of Islam in government?, 
Will there be federal zones?, Will the structure of 
government have one or two chambers?, etc.  GEN Abizaid 
concluded that once a constitution is written that guarantees 
personal rights, it 
will contribute to stability. 
 
9. (C) The Turkish DCHOD turned to Kirkuk, stating that 
Turkey is paying great attention to its status.  Basbug 
thought that the special status of Baghdad and Kirkuk, as 
required by the Transitional Administrative Law, might be a 
top problem for the constitutional process.  However, he also 
admitted that the Turkish military does not see another 
option for Iraq, i.e. coalition/U.S. forces must be 
successful.  Basbug said he saw three aspects to the problem: 
 military, economic, and political.  While hoping the elected 
Iraqi government would be seen as legitimate by the Iraqi 
people and predicting a bright future for the country, he 
also suggested future success depended on developing Iraq's 
military and security forces.  GEN Basbug said Turkey had 
been "fully supportive" of NATO's decision to train and equip 
forces and made a proposal to NATO.  Some of the offered 
training, like border security and law of armed conflict had 
been "very much welcomed".  Although the IIG had informed 
Ankara that senior Iraqi military leaders are unable to 
participate in out-of-country training at this time, Basbug 
hoped after the elections some senior officers could attend 
such training in Turkey. 
10. (C) The DCHOD turned to the NATO Mission in Afghanistan, 
asking GEN Abizaid if he has any ideas on how to overcome 
shortfalls in meeting NATO requirements.  GEN Abizaid thought 
NATO was too slow in meeting the requirements in Afghanistan. 
 He said that the training mission was key:  it was important 
to change the culture so that security forces understood that 
they now served the people, not a dictator.  The same was 
true for Iraq, he said.  Iraq won't emerge from darkness 
until their forces are well trained, well equipped, and well 
led. 
 
11. (C) GEN Basbug asked for Abizaid's assessment of the new 
Iraqi military's effectiveness.  GEN Abizaid explained that 
the army was built from the ground up, but he noted a need to 
build a chain of command.  He also described the Iraqis as 
solid, loyal, professionals, who, ...when they performed with 
us in Fallujah, did well."  GEN Abizaid noted that insurgents 
have concentrated on attacking Iraqi Police, and that in 
earlier instances the police ran and did not fight, but that 
with more training, of late, the police had fought well.  He 
added that the police also learned that a police unit that 
surrenders may be executed by the insurgents anyway. Finally, 
GEN Abizaid said the military justice system in Iraq was not 
functioning and there have been cases where lawful orders 
were not followed and nothing happened to the offenders. 
 
12. (C) GEN Basbug raised the Turkish forces in Northern 
Iraq. Saying that, "Turkey has liaison officers (LNOs) with 
U.S. forces in Tal A'far, Kirkuk, and Mosul and that the 
level of liaison cooperation was at a satisfactory level.  He 
noted the U.S. liaison working with Turkish Special Forces in 
Silopi.  He said Turkey was about increasing the level of 
liaison in Baghdad from one to two officers.  In northern 
Iraq he noted Turkey has small groups of Special Forces, and 
two battalions and that it has shared the locations of those 
units with the U.S."  He continued, "The presence of Turkish 
military in northern Iraq is dependent on the PKK in northern 
Iraq." 
 
13. (S) "I don't want to remind again about the 
As-Suleymaniah event in 2003," Basbug said referring to the 
incident in which U.S. Special Forces conducted a raid on 
Turkish Special Forces in northern Iraq. Basbug welcomed the 
subsequent proposal from EUCOM Commander, GEN Jones, to have 
meetings between two-star general representatives of the U.S. 
and Turkey. LG Yalcin interjected that such meetings were not 
to be routine, but on an as-needed basis, and had even been 
accomplished by videoconference.  GEN Basbug said that we 
cannot have another incident like As-Suleymaniah, and GEN 
Abizaid responded that we shouldn't let issues become 
exaggerated because of press reports. 
 
14. (C) GEN Basbug said As-Suleymaniah was an exception, and 
that he wanted to thank GEN Abizaid for the excellent job 
U.S. forces did in Mosul to drive off insurgents who attacked 
the Turkish Police convoy enroute to Baghdad.  U.S. forces 
attacked the insurgents, treated the wounded Turkish Police, 
recovered the bodies of those killed and expedited the return 
of the remains back to Turkey. 
 
15. (C) GEN Basbug asked GEN Abizaid whether he saw foresaw 
any possible problems in Afghanistan for the Turkish military 
taking over command of ISAF. GEN Abizaid replied that the 
situation in Afghanistan continues to improve, with the next 
elections being provincial.  GEN Abizaid thought there might 
be a spike in violence and that part of the problem was a 
lack of proper preparation by Afghan election officials.  The 
elections might be delayed because of violence expected in 
certain border regions, which would be inevitable as 
Pakistani military forces moved north and coalition force 
come south.  GEN Basbug agreed the elections might be 
delayed.  GEN Abizaid concluded encouraging other countries 
to take on PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) 
particularly.  More countries need to lead in the West. 
 
16. (C) For his last point, GEN Basbug returned to the 
U.S.-Turkish military relationship, saying, "We haven't seen 
any serious lack of consultations, cooperation or 
coordination." He continued, "Sometimes the media create a 
slanted story, but media stories don't truly reflect our 
relationship."  As examples of the continuing interaction GEN 
Basbug explained he was going to visit EUCOM in March and 
thought the bilateral HLDG (High Level Defense Group) would 
meet in April.  (Comment: We now expect the HLDG to occur in 
June.) 
17. (C) AMB Edelman took the opportunity to agree with GEN 
Basbug that relations, military-to-military and 
government-to-government, are quite good, but added that both 
sides needed to work to prevent creation of a public void 
regarding common interests and values."  AMB Edelman stressed 
both sides have an obligation to "...say it in public." 
 
18.  (U)  Baghdad Minimize Considered. 
EDELMAN