US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO181

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: REFORM CANDIDATES MAKE GAINS AS POLLS 
CLOSE 
 
REF: COLOMBO 0149 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  With one exception, polls to elect 
representatives to the People's Majlis, or Parliament, closed 
throughout this island nation on January 22.  Although 
counting continues, preliminary results indicate a solid 
showing for pro-reform candidates, with the Presidential 
Spokesman predicting they will capture nearly a quarter of 
the seats.  Mohammad Latheef, the head of the Maldivian 
Democratic Party, termed the results "a resounding victory" 
that strengthens the case for legalizing political parties in 
the Maldives.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U)  With one exception, polls to elect representatives 
to the People's Majlis closed on time on January 22.  (Note: 
The one exception was a resort island on which many of the 
residents are workers registered to vote in other 
constituencies.  Polling closed there the following day, and 
the ballot box reached the counting center in Male' by 10:00 
p.m. that night.  End note.)  According to Ismail Habeeb, a 
member of the Election Task Force, counting had been 
completed in 4 of the 21 constituencies as of late morning 
January 24.  Counting was proceeding smoothly, Habeeb said, 
with no evidence of irregularities.  He added that 
representatives from both SAARC and the Commonwealth 
Secretariat were observing the process.  Final results are 
 
SIPDIS 
not expected to be announced until late January 26. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Rasheeda Ali, a member of the Maldivian Human 
Rights Commission (MHRC), said that the MHRC had not received 
any feedback as of mid-morning January 24 from the 25 
election monitors it had trained.  (Note:  Our colleagues at 
Commonwealth missions in Colombo tell us that they have not 
yet received a read-out from the Commonwealth observer team 
either.)  According to Ali, the MHRC had received only one 
report of a disturbance on election day:  a scuffle at a 
polling station in the capital city of Male' in which five 
people were arrested.  Presidential Spokesman Dr. Ahmed 
Shaheed told us that the incident was orchestrated by "thugs" 
in the pay of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party 
(MDP).  Shaheed added that only one person--who he said was 
found in possession of a knife--remained in detention as of 
January 24. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Despite the logistical constraints posed by the 
recent tsunami, the entire voting process had been conducted 
"credibly," Shaheed told poloff, as evidenced by the strong 
showing posted by pro-reform candidates.  Based on 
preliminary returns, Shaheed predicted that MDP candidates 
would win 8-10 of the 42 available seats.  (Note:  The most 
notable winner appears to be Ibrahim Ismail, one of four 
pro-reform Special Majlis MPs who had been detained and 
charged with sedition by the Government following the August 
12-13 civil unrest.  Ismail outpaced 13 other contenders as 
the highest vote-getter in the capital city of Male'.) 
Shaheed said he was personally surprised by the MDP's 
performance, adding that he had believed Government-backed 
candidates would be able to parley the Government's energetic 
tsunami relief efforts into victory at the ballot box.  The 
 
SIPDIS 
number of eligible voters swelled by more than 57 percent 
compared with the last People's Majlis elections five years 
ago, an increase Shaheed attributed to the demographic bulge 
of Maldivians between the ages of 21-25.  The greater 
percentage of younger voters in the electorate is likely a 
significant factor in the MDP's solid showing, he theorized. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Mohammad Latheef, head of the MDP who lives in Sri 
Lanka, told poloff on January 24 that the election results 
constituted "a resounding victory" for his party.  (Note: 
Maldivian law does not recognize political parties, and the 
MDP is not registered as a party in Maldives.  Because 
candidates cannot claim a party affiliation when registering, 
it is often difficult for an outsider to determine which 
candidates are pro-MDP.  MDP critics claim that the 
organization adopts a particularly liberal and inclusive view 
of its membership, dubbing many unaffiliated winners as MDP 
candidates in an effort to appear more popular.  Many MDP 
leaders, including Latheef, citing the fear of arrest and 
suppression in Maldives, live in self-imposed exile in Sri 
Lanka and other countries.  End note.)  The MDP's strong 
performance at the polls was a clear mandate, he said, which 
the Government should recognize by legalizing the party. 
When asked if the "resounding victory" was evidence that the 
elections were free and fair, Latheef demurred, claiming that 
the Government had actively discouraged many sure-to-win MDP 
candidates from running in the election in the first place. 
 
6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  With the counting continuing and the 
reports from the assorted international, national and 
regional election observers still pending, it is too early to 
pass judgment on the freeness or fairness of the polls.  With 
only one report so far of a disturbance--and with even the 
quick-to-complain Latheef citing only pre-election 
atmospherics as an inhibiting factor--we have seen no 
evidence so far that these elections were any less free or 
fair than previous polls.  That they took place at all--and 
more or less on schedule--is a tribute to Government 
efficiency and organization--as well as an indication of the 
degree of internal and international pressure it felt to 
conduct a credible exercise.  If pro-reform candidates post 
as strong a showing as expected, it will be become 
increasingly difficult for the Government to ignore calls to 
move toward a party system. 
 
ENTWISTLE