US embassy cable - 02HARARE611

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, DAS BELLAMY; AND AF/S 
 
CAPETOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/07 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE BEHIND THE SCENES SCHEMES, A PAN- 
         AFRICAN ELECTION WHITEWASH UNLIKELY 
 
REF: A) HARARE 591 B) HARARE 603 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) WE HAVE PICKED UP A NUMBER OF REPORTS THAT THERE 
ARE MOVES AFOOT TO LINE UP AFRICAN ELECTION OBSERVATION 
DELEGATIONS TO AGREE TO A COMMON POST-ELECTORAL 
STATEMENT FAVORABLE TO ROBERT MUGABE.  DEPUTY ELECTIONS 
SUPERVISION COMMISSIONER'S NYIKAYARAMBA INVITATION TO 
AFRICAN CHIEFS OF MISSION AND THE HEAD OF AFRICAN 
ELECTION OBSERVATION DELEGATIONS TO A FOLLOW-UP MEETING 
TO THE ESC PRE-ELECTION BRIEFING (REFTELS) TURNED OUT TO 
BE AN INVITATION TO MEET WITH MDC LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. 
 
2.  (C) REPORTS ON THE MEETING FROM CONTACTS WITHIN THE 
AFRICAN DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY REVEAL THAT THERE ARE TWO 
UNDERLYING CONCERNS AMONG MANY AFRICAN DELEGATES. 
FIRST, THERE IS WIDESPREAD ACCEPTANCE OF THE ZANU-PF 
CREDO THAT THE LAND ISSUE -- NOT THE RULE OF LAW OR THE 
PRINCIPLE OF POPULAR SOVEREIGN WILL -- LIES AT THE HEART 
OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN.  SECONDLY, THERE IS A FEELING 
THAT THE MDC MAY NOT BE QUALIFIED TO TAKE UP THE REINS 
OF POWER, REGARDLESS OF THE POLITICAL HANKERINGS OF THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE. 
 
3.  (C) DUKE LEFHOKO, HEAD OF THE SADC-PF DELEGATION AND 
THUS FAR THE STRAIGHTEST SHOOTER OF THE AFRICAN MISSION 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00611  01 OF 02  071508Z 
HEADS, REPORTEDLY WARNED MDC BEFORE THE MEETING NOT TO 
AGREE TO ANY CONDITIONS OFFERED BY THE AFRICAN GROUP. 
IN FACT, THERE WAS REPORTEDLY A SUBSEQUENT ATTEMPT BY 
CERTAIN DELEGATES TO GET TSVANGIRAI TO STATE THAT HE 
WOULD ACCEPT THE ANNOUNCED OUTCOME, WHATEVER THIS MIGHT 
BE, A POSITION THAT TSVANGIRAI WOULD NOT ACCEPT.  TWO 
ANC MEMBERS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN DELEGATION PRESSED 
TSVANGIRAI ON EXACTLY THE SAME POINT DURING A PUBLIC MDC 
 
SIPDIS 
BRIEFING EARLY LAST WEEK. 
 
4.  (C) THE NDI'S DENNIS KADEMA (PROTECT), WHO IS 
ADVISING THE SADC-PF DELEGATION, INFORMED DCM ON MARCH 7 
THAT THE AU IS TAKING A VERY STRONG PRO-MUGABE STANCE. 
A WOMAN FROM THE AU DELEGATION MET WITH SADC-PF SYG 
MUTUKWA AND LEFHOKO EARLY THIS WEEK AND STRONGLY PRESSED 
THEM TO AGREE TO SIGNING ON TO A JOINT, ALL-AFRICAN POST 
ELECTORAL STATEMENT FAVORABLE TO MUGABE.  THEY REFUSED, 
AND OTHER DELEGATIONS HAVE REPORTEDLY ALSO BALKED AT THE 
NOTION. 
 
5.  (C) AFRICAN CONCERNS ABOUT LAND AND THE MDC'S 
ABILITY TO GOVERN DO NOT APPEAR TO REFLECT AN ACCEPTANCE 
OF ZANU-PF'S SLASH AND BURN APPROACH TO ELECTIONEERING. 
THE NIGERIANS AND SOUTH AFRICANS HAVE BOTH TOLD US THAT 
ZANU-PF VIOLENCE AND BLATANT DISREGARD FOR THE RULES IS 
APPALLING.  OTHER DELEGATIONS HAVE EXPRESSED SIMILAR 
SENTIMENTS.  THREE DELEGATES FROM GHANA -- TWO MPS WHO 
FORMERLY WERE IN OPPOSITION AND A WELL QUALIFIED 
ELECTION COMMISSIONER -- DESCRIBED TO THE AMBASSADOR 
THEIR REPULSION AT THE WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE, PROCEDURAL 
WEAKNESSES, AND GOZ MEDIA DISTORTION.  HOWEVER, THEY 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00611  01 OF 02  071508Z 
INSISTED THAT THEY ARE BOUND BY THE TERMS OF THEIR 
INVITATION AND ARE UNABLE TO SPEAK OUT UNTIL AFTER THE 
ELECTION IS DONE. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT.  WE DO NOT THINK THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORGE 
A PAN-AFRICAN, PRO-MUGABE POSITION WILL PREVAIL DESPITE 
QUESTIONS BY SOME DELEGATIONS ABOUT THE LAND ISSUE AND 
THE MDC'S CAPACITY TO GOVERN (WHICH, WE NOTE, SHOULD IN 
DEMOCRATIC TERMS BE THE BUSINESS OF THE ZIMBABWEANS AND 
NO ONE ELSE).  AS NOTED IN EARLIER REPORTS, A NUMBER OF 
AFRICAN BILATERAL DELEGATIONS -- AND CLEARLY THE AU -- 
HAVE NOT COME HERE TO FIND FAULT WITH A MUGABE VICTORY, 
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE OBTAINED.  HOWEVER, OUR 
CONVERSATIONS WITH MEMBERS OF OTHER AFRICAN DELEGATIONS, 
AND THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF SOME OF THEIR OBSERVERS 
IN THE FIELD AS REPORTED BY OUR OBSERVER TEAMS, LEAD US 
TO CONCLUDE THAT THERE WILL BE OTHER, MORE BALANCED 
VOICES.  IN THE EVENT OF AN ANNOUNCED MUGABE VICTORY, 
THE FINAL PUBLIC POSITIONS OF THE NIGERIANS AND THE 
SOUTH AFRICANS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHETHER OR NOT THE 
AFRICANS AT LARGE RETREAT TO THE UNFORTUNATE "QUIET 
DIPLOMACY" OF AFRICAN SOLIDARITY THAT HAS TOO FREQUENTLY 
PREVAILED IN THE PAST.  END COMMENT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3075 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00611  02 OF 02  071508Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  WHA-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      L-00     VCE-00   M-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /007W 
                  ------------------70EFDC  071508Z /38 
O 071500Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1128 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
NSC WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, DAS BELLAMY; AND AF/S 
 
CAPETOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/07 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, OAU, ZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00611  02 OF 02  071508Z 
SUBJECT: DESPITE BEHIND THE SCENES SCHEMES, A PAN- 
         AFRICAN ELECTION WHITEWASH UNLIKELY 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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