US embassy cable - 05AMMAN587

UNCLAS AMMAN 000587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: LOW IRAQ OUT-OF-COUNTRY VOTER REGISTRATION TOTALS 
CONTINUE 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 468 
 
     B. AMMAN 342 
     C. AMMAN 293 
 
OCV Registration Results Continue Low 
-------------------------------------- 
 
1.  IOM-run, out-of-country (OCV) voter registration for 
Iraqis in Jordan continues to be marked by low turnouts, 
widespread confusion, and apparent apathy among many 
potential voters.  As of COB Saturday, January 22, six days 
after the beginning of registration, only 10,941 Iraqis were 
registered in Jordan out of an estimated pool of up to 
200,000 potential registrants.  This latest figure reflects a 
steady uptic in daily registration totals, but still falls 
short of initial registration goals of fifty per cent turnout 
or more.  The International Organization for Migration (IOM) 
OCV headquarters in Amman, which administers the OCV effort 
internationally, reports that worldwide turnout after six 
days totaled about 188,000 out of an estimated pool (recently 
calibrated downwards) of approximately 1.1 million eligible 
voters. 
 
Iranian Exception 
----------------- 
 
2.  According to IOM, the most impressive OCV registration 
turnout so far has been in Iran, where over fifty percent of 
IOM's currently estimated voter pool of approximately 80,000 
were registered by January 22.  In contrast, only 10,500 
Iraqis had registered by January 22 in Syria, the country 
with the largest estimated pool (approximately 250,000) of 
eligible OCV participants.  U.S. and U.K. registration 
turnout as of day six is at about ten percent of IOM's 
revised estimate of their potential OCV pool. 
 
Registration Deadline Extended... 
--------------------------------- 
 
3.  In an effort to facilitate worldwide registration 
turnout, IOM announced on January 20 a two-day extension to 
the OCV registration process, originally scheduled to end on 
January 23.  The new deadline is Tuesday, January 25.  IOM 
also extended daily OCV registration operating hours from 5PM 
until 7PM in all OCV countries except the Netherlands.  In a 
possibly related development, the GOJ announced on January 20 
a 75% reduction in potential fines payable by Iraqis who have 
overstayed their visas or are otherwise residing in Jordan 
illegally (probably the majority of the Iraqis currently 
living here). 
 
But Other Disincentives Remain 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  While the Jordanian move was welcomed by some Iraqi 
political figures and activists and was heavily covered in 
the Arab media, it is unclear that this partial amnesty will 
allay the concern of most of the affected Iraqis, as many are 
day laborers and the like who cannot afford to pay even the 
reduced fine.  Despite the GOJ's commitment to the IOM not to 
use the OCV registration process to check immigration status 
(ref a), Iraqis' concerns over possible detention by 
Jordanian police and/or demands for fine payments (perhaps 
compounded by the visibly stepped-up police presence at 
registration locations) continue to be seen as a disincentive 
to OCV registration (ref a). 
 
5.  Continued voter confusion and lack of knowledge over the 
purpose of the election, who is running, and why they should 
bother to vote is also widely cited by IOM personnel and 
local Iraqi sources as an important contributing factor to 
the low registration turnout.  This was circumstantially 
confirmed in three conversations over the last two days with 
prominent Iraqis in Amman - a businessman, a parliamentary 
candidate, and an important tribal leader who has been an 
active coalition supporter.  The businessman and the tribal 
leader both expressed a notional desire to vote, but revealed 
substantial confusion over election procedures and what the 
election was for.  The parliamentary candidate (also a 
successful businessman) asserted that even his close 
relatives "don't understand anything about this election." 
Also reported in the press and confirmed anecdotally is 
difficulty in producing the two Iraqi identification 
documents required for registration.  One businessman told us 
dejectedly that he and his family have no relevant Jordanian 
documents and nothing else beyond their Iraqi passports to 
identify themselves as Iraqis. 
 
 
HALE