US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI332

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR PM, NEA, NEA/ARPI 
SECDEF FOR OSD, OUSD (P) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2015 
TAGS: AF, ETRD, IR, IZ, MAS, PREL, PTER, TC 
SUBJECT: ASD RODMAN MEETING WITH UAE INFORMATION MINISTER 
 
1. (C) Summary: During a January 12 meeting with UAE 
Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ASD 
Peter Rodman discussed Iraq,s upcoming election and its role 
in achieving stability.  Sheikh Abdullah shared concerns 
about Sunni participation in the election and representation 
in a future Shi,a-dominated government.  He said the UAE 
remains focused on Iranian meddling in Iraq, and shares U.S. 
skepticism about Syrian President Bashar,s ability to shut 
down the sanctuaries for Iraq,s insurgents inside Syria. 
Sheikh Abdullah said the positive signals from Washington 
after Mahmoud Abbas, election have given new hope to the 
Palestinians, and he urged greater U.S. engagement.  He said 
to expect even more positive editorial changes at Dubai-based 
Al Arabiya television, and he confirmed that the recent 
Saudi-Bahrain spat had not affected the UAE,s desire to talk 
with the U.S. about a Free Trade Agreement.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On the margins of the first U.S.-UAE Joint Military 
Commission, Peter Rodman, Assistant Secretary of Defense for 
International Security Affairs (ASD/ISA), joined by 
Ambassador and party, called on Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al 
Nahyan, Minister of Information January 12.  Sheikh Abdullah 
was joined by Yousef Al Otaiba, special advisor to Abu Dhabi 
Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed 
Forces Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. 
 
Iraq election 
------------- 
 
3. (C) Sheikh Abdullah asked ASD Rodman for a readout of his 
meeting a day earlier with Dubai Crown Prince (and titular 
UAE Minister of Defense) Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid (MBR). 
ASD Rodman said MBR had expressed concern about Iraq,s Sunni 
population in the run-up to the January 30 election.  ASD 
Rodman said the election has enormous value, but the Sunnis 
are faced with a dilemma.  While they will no longer dominate 
Iraq, they can be full participants in a benign political 
system.  Delaying the elections would not accomplish anything 
because the Sunnis would still be faced with the same 
dilemma.  ASD Rodman noted that the Shi,a and Kurds were 
reaching out to the Sunnis to reassure them that there is a 
place for them.  He said he hoped the Sunnis would make the 
right decision because Iraq cannot survive without the 
coalescence of all groups.  Despite intimidation by 
extremists, "polls show that 80-85% of the population want to 
vote," and the U.S. still believes the majority of Iraqis 
want to participate in the political process, and the U.S. 
will do its best to provide maximum security.  The election 
will be fully legitimate. 
 
4. (C) Will the Sunnis have a chance to vote, Sheikh Abdullah 
asked?  ASD Rodman said there have been some difficulties 
setting up sufficient polling stations, and there was also 
the problem of intimidation.  Sheikh Abdullah inquired about 
voting modalities, and whether the U.S. sees a single party 
dominating the future national assembly.  ASD Rodman said 
that he was impressed by the inclusiveness of the so-called 
Shi,a list, indicating a desire for national unity.  It is 
more a coalition than a party.  ASD Rodman expressed 
confidence that the election would produce a balanced 
government.  After the election, the politics will begin. 
The new presidency council and others elected will look for 
balance and make room for Sunnis to join the political 
process.  They will also have the task of drafting a new 
constitution.  He added that the Kurds have the incentive to 
be inclusive, as do the Shi,a.  If the Shi,a win a majority 
of seats in the national assembly and the country then 
fragments, their victory will be hollow.  "We have to provide 
a structure and incentive for the Sunni to defeat their own 
extremists." 
 
Iranian influence in Iraq 
------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Sheikh Abdullah asked about Iranian influence on the 
Iraq election, and noted that some of the candidates on the 
predominant Shi,a list had lived in Iran.  ASD Rodman said 
that the list supported by Ayatollah Al Sistani was a list of 
Iraqis, and none of the Shi,a factions in Iraq wants to be 
perceived as being a &puppet of Iran.8  The Iran-Iraq war 
demonstrated that the Shi,a of Iraq were Iraqis, not a tool 
of Iran.  "We share UAE's view that if this were another 
Iran, this would be a disaster--but that is the least likely 
outcome."  Sheikh Abdullah recalled a statement by Shi,a 
candidate Abdul Aziz Al Hakim about the need for Iraq to 
repay Iran $100 billion in war reparations.  ASD Rodman said 
he understood Sheikh Abdullah,s concern, but added that the 
U.S. view was that Iraqis are Iraqi, and that in a democratic 
Iraq, the Shi,a will be a majority who coexist with Kurds 
and Sunnis.  Iran will try to disrupt Iraq to prevent it from 
becoming stable, but a sense of national identity will pull 
Iraqis together.  If the U.S. can help Iraqis consolidate 
their institutions, we could have a positive influence. 
 
6. (C) Sheikh Abdullah expressed concern about the potential 
rise of a Shi,a extremist party in Iraq, similar to the 
small but influential Hezbollah in Lebanon.  The radical 
Shi,a Hizbullah in Lebanon is disproportionately influential 
with Muslims throughout the Middle East, and he is concerned 
that a similar phenomenon could occur with Hizbullah in Iraq. 
 ASD Rodman said the extremism currently on display in Iraq 
is Sunni, and the disruption is being caused by former Saddam 
Hussein regime elements and foreign fighters backed by 
Zarqawi.  Most Shi,a are moderates who seek to participate 
in the political process.  Sheikh Abdullah asked what would 
happen if only a small percentage of Sunnis were elected to 
the national assembly, or if those Sunnis elected were 
political unknowns inside the Sunni community.  ASD Rodman 
said there are well-known candidates, such as Iraqi President 
Al Yawar, who is a tribal leader.  The national assembly will 
have legitimacy.  The U.S. is training the army and police. 
Although the struggle will continue, the U.S. believes the 
moderate Iraqis will be strengthened by the creation of a 
legitimately elected government, he said. 
 
7. (C) Sheikh Abdullah asked whether voting on the basis of 
lists was perhaps a bad idea.  ASD Rodman said some in the 
USG had concerns but the UN had determined that this was the 
simplest method to implement in a short period of time.  Once 
the Iraqis draft a new constitution, it is open to them. 
They could introduce district elections as a way to ensure 
more stability. 
 
Syria,s role 
------------ 
 
8. (C) Had the Syrians changed their policies vis--vis Iraq, 
Sheikh Abdullah asked?  ASD Rodman said that the problem with 
Syria is that it is a place where the insurgents organize and 
raise money, and that Syrian Baathists are colluding.  The 
infiltration of insurgents across the Syria-Iraq border is a 
&symptom8 of the main problem, which is going on inside 
Syria with the collusion of the government.  The U.S. is 
skeptical of President Bashar, even though he told A/S Burns 
and ASD Rodman last September that he supports the Iraqi 
government &100 percent.8  The fact is, several months 
later, the same activity is taking place, and Syria should be 
able to control, and is accountable for, what is going on 
inside its own borders.  Deputy Secretary Armitage traveled 
to Damascus more recently to deliver the same message, ASD 
Rodman said.  U.S. patience is wearing out.  Bashar has to 
stop providing sanctuary for the insurgents. Bashar Al Asad 
is not in control, Sheikh Abdallah suggested, and the people 
around him are the old guard. 
 
 
Palestinian election and the Roadmap 
------------------------------------ 
 
9. (C) In the wake of the Palestinian leadership elections, 
the signals from Washington have been &quite positive,8 and 
have given the Palestinians &new hope,8 Sheikh Abdullah 
said.  When Mahmoud Abbas was Prime Minister, he did not get 
the backing he deserved, even though he was a moderate.  &We 
should not lose the opportunity we have with Abu Mazen8 this 
time around, Sheikh Abdullah asserted.  ASD Rodman recalled 
President Bush,s June 24, 2002, speech in which he stated 
that both sides in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute have 
responsibilities, but that the Palestinian leadership was 
corrupt and tainted by its association with terrorism.  When 
Arafat departed the scene, that opened up a new opportunity. 
Israel,s Gaza disengagement plan is historic.  There are now 
conditions on the ground that &warrant us to plunge in and 
do things.8  Sheikh Abdullah nodded in agreement.  ASD 
Rodman continued, &This is clearly a moment when the 
conditions are right.  Now is the time to engage.8  Sheikh 
Abdullah agreed and noted that &everyone knew Arafat was 
corrupt.8  He said that Palestinians have to get their own 
state.  &We should not let extremists continue to use the 
Palestinian argument as a tool in other contexts,8 he added, 
alluding to terrorist actions elsewhere. 
 
Review of JMC 
------------- 
 
10. (C) ASD Rodman also reviewed the deliberations that had 
taken place at the January 11-12 Joint Military Commission 
(JMC).  The JMC had very few complicated issues in the 
military sphere, which is an indication that the relationship 
is very strong.  The one &vulnerability8 is the Defense 
Cooperation Agreement (DCA), and the UAE side did not wish to 
discuss it at the JMC, preferring to raise it directly with 
the Embassy at a later time.  ASD Rodman said that everywhere 
we are in the world we have a status of forces arrangement, 
and that we need to fix our dormant DCA with UAE. 
 
 
Al Arabiya television 
--------------------- 
 
11. (C) ASD Rodman talked about his interview that morning 
with Dubai-based Al Arabiya television.  Sheikh Abdullah said 
to expect more positive changes at the station.  Many of the 
station,s editorial staff had worked at Al Jazeera in the 
past and came to Al Arabiya with the &same mentality8 as 
one finds at Al Jazeera.  Give Al Arabiya six more months to 
change, he asked.  He said he &could not understand8 how 
the Qataris &allow8 Al Jazeera to broadcast what they do. 
The news department is &run by fundamentalists and Arab 
nationalists.8 
 
FTA 
--- 
 
12. (C) Sheikh Abdullah said the recent FTA dispute between 
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was not &slowing down the UAE8 on 
its FTA plans.  Sheikh Abdullah said the Saudis had larger 
problems but failed to solve them for many years.  ASD Rodman 
said the U.S. appreciates the UAE,s military cooperation, 
its help in Iraq and Afghanistan, its recent economic 
contribution to the earthquake/tsunami victims in Southeast 
Asia, and the fact that, like the U.S., it has a strategic 
interest in Iran.  &We will do our best to show that we are 
a reliable ally,8 he said. 
 
13. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
14. (U) ASD Rodman has approved this cable. 
SISON