US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU485

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000485 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
MUMBAI FOR GOOD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: PROMISES MADE IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT: 
OPPOSITION, FORMER PM PRESS DEUBA TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON 
COMMITMENTS 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 0412 
     B. (B) 01 KATHMANDU 2503 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON PMAHONEY.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
1.  (C)  In the days since Opposition parties, along with 
former Prime Minister and current Nepali Congress Party 
President Girija Prasad Koirala, decided to vote with or 
support the Government of Nepal (GON) to ratify the state of 
emergency (Ref A), Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is 
finding out--if he ever doubted--that winning the support of 
his long-time rivals may not come cheap.  Opposition Leader 
Madhav Nepal, along with his strange new bedfellow Koirala, 
are joining unlikely ranks to push Deuba to follow through on 
the commitments he made to consider amending the constitution 
to set up a national government during elections and to 
prosecute corruption.  Besides teaming up with the 
Opposition, Koirala is also busily forming several new 
committees within the Congress Party--one of which may play a 
key role in selecting MP candidates for the next election. 
End summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
NC AND UML:  TOGETHER AT LAST? 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  Since supporting the Government of Nepal (GON) in 
the Feb. 21 late-night vote to ratify the state of emergency 
(Ref A), Opposition Leader Madhav Nepal and former Prime 
Minister and current Nepali Congress Party President Girija 
Prasad Koirala have been pressing Prime Minister Sher Bahadur 
Deuba to follow through on commitments he made during his 
speech in Parliament that day, including a possible 
constitutional amendment and more vigorous prosecution of 
corruption.  On Feb. 28, the PM sent a letter to heads of the 
five largest political parties, soliciting their opinions on 
amending the Constitution. 
 
3.  (C)  The Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist 
Leninist (UML), the largest Opposition party, is advocating 
several amendments, including a measure establishing an 
all-party caretaker government during national elections; a 
provision to establish an all-party government during 
national emergencies; and a limit on the size of the Cabinet. 
 The official position of the UML, which has not had a Prime 
Minister since 1995, is that only the establishment of an 
all-party government can ensure free and fair elections. 
Hari Sharma, a close advisor to the former PM, confirmed that 
Koirala signed an agreement with the UML leadership on both 
the Opposition's 22-point reform program, including proposals 
for Constitutional amendments, and Koirala's proposal for a 
broader national alliance (now being termed a "Broader 
Democratic Alliance") (Ref B) before the debate on 
ratification.  The two party leaders signed a second 
agreement just a few days ago, Sharma added, that details how 
to proceed with the issues outlined in the earlier agreement, 
including cooperation on political reform; decentralization 
of local government; depoliticization of the bureaucracy; and 
the development of a common agenda to strengthen the Prime 
Ministerial system, which, apparently, they consider to have 
been vitiated during Deuba's tenure.  Sharma remarked with 
some surprise at both UML and Nepali Congress efforts to keep 
the text of the agreements "secret"--even though some hints 
have appeared in the local press. 
 
------------------------------- 
CORRUPTION COMMISSION--AGAIN 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  But constitutional amendments are not the only area 
where Koirala and the UML are finding common cause to 
prod--and to criticize--the GON.  In their remarks during the 
ratification debate (Ref A), both Koirala and Madhav Nepal 
castigated Deuba for failing to curb corruption.  On March 4 
the Cabinet announced the formation of a judicial commission 
to investigate the assets of high-ranking GON employees since 
1990.  (Note:  By some estimates in the press, the number of 
individuals to be investigated numbers well over 10,000.  End 
note.)  King Gyanendra will appoint the three members of the 
Commission, the mandate of which extends for six months.  The 
Judicial Council has recommended Supreme Court Justice 
Krishna Jung Rayamaji to chair the new Commission. 
Opposition politicians greeted the announcement with guarded 
enthusiasm, many of them noting the formation of at least 
four previous commissions with similar mandates, the 
recommendations of which have never been acted upon. 
 
5.  (C)  Some sources identify King Gyanendra as the real 
impetus for this newest commission.  According to these 
accounts, the King called in the Prime Minister and, citing 
sharp criticism from donors at the February 4-7 Nepal 
Development Forum about corruption and the lack of good 
governance and Secretary of State Powell's own remarks during 
his January 18-19 visit, directed Deuba to do something quick 
to clean up the GON's act.  One source contends that the 
Cabinet's original terms of reference for the Commission 
limited its mandate to the investigation of corruption "from 
now onwards"--a draft that was quickly rejected by the King. 
 
6.  (C)  Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey, the head of Transparency 
International in Nepal, told poloff he is skeptical that the 
recommendations of this new and hypothetically improved 
commission will fare any differently from those of its 
numerous predecessors.  The Constitution calls for and the 
GON has already established a standing anti-corruption 
watchdog Commission (Commission for Investigation of the 
Abuse of Authority) whose members are appointed by the King, 
Pandey observed, and whose findings and recommendations are 
largely ignored by an easily influenced judiciary. 
Repeatedly forming and re-forming multiple commissions could 
be avoided, he said, if at least one of those bodies were 
sufficiently empowered to make its recommendations stick. 
Unfortunately, he remarked pessimistically, corruption is so 
widespread that any given target of a probe has enough "dirt" 
on everyone else--or on the key allies of others--to 
discourage the zealous pursuit of investigations.  Moreover, 
he added, the Commission's terms of reference are ambiguous. 
The word "corruption" is never mentioned in its mandate--only 
a call for the examination of personal assets.  The new 
commission is only window-dressing and will lead nowhere, he 
predicted, because the political will just isn't there. 
 
 
------------------------------ 
AND MORE CONGRESS COMMITTEES 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C)  On February 26, Koirala also set up--and hand-picked 
the members for--a Parliamentary Committee and a  nine-person 
Central Working Implementation Committee within the party 
without consulting the Central Working Committee.  How 
exactly the leaner, meaner CWIC will differ from the Central 
Working Committee--which enjoys considerably broader 
representation from the party's different factions--is 
unclear.  NC General Secretary Sushil Koirala explained that 
the new CWIC will meet during "emergencies," or when there is 
not enough time to call a Central Working Committee meeting. 
Considerable suspicion lingers, however, that the new 
committees' real role will be to choose the party's nominees 
for MP during the next general election--thereby ensuring 
that only Koirala's candidates are on the ticket.  Deuba and 
his mentor, former PM K.P. Bhattarai, did not show up at the 
Parliamentary Committee's first meeting on March 4, which 
nominated a candidate for a newly vacant seat in the Upper 
House.  Political wags and the local media immediately 
deduced Deuba, resenting his rival's closed-door selection of 
membership of these two committees, boycotted the meeting. 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
EMERGENCY, BUT NOT DEUBA, CRITICIZED 
------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) While he is apparently keeping busy forming 
closed-door committees and cooperating with the Opposition in 
private, Koirala has recently muted his usually vocal 
criticism of Deuba in public.  In a Feb. 27 meeting with the 
Ambassador, Koirala described his relations with the GON as 
good, while lamenting in the same breath that the GON 
consistently fails to provide him and others in the party 
leadership adequate information about the state of affairs in 
the nation.  Instead, he relies on grass-roots party 
activists to get a real handle on the security situation 
outside of Kathmandu. "I don't like this emergency," Koirala 
told the Ambassador, adding that he voted to ratify because 
he recognized the nation is in a difficult position.  He said 
his party has completed a report that criticizes the GON's 
handling of the emergency and cites numerous human rights 
abuses since its imposition.  Human rights abuses will only 
lead to the creation of more Maoists, Koirala observed.  His 
own party's ability to conduct legitimate activities and hold 
meetings has been sharply curtailed since November 26, he 
complained.  He said he had told the Prime Minister to 
restore civil liberties to average people "so that we can 
isolate them from the Maoists." 
 
 
--------------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
9.  (C)   Deuba is under obvious pressure from both the 
Opposition and political rivals within his own party to 
follow through on commitments made during the ratification 
debate.  So far at least, he is going through the motions of 
that follow-through.  In the grim aftermath of the bloody 
Maoist attacks in Achham, Koirala may have decided that 
continuing his near-daily broadside attacks against Deuba in 
public might be viewed as unseemly--even unpatriotic--by 
some, and do nothing to further his seemingly tireless quest 
to regain the prime ministership.  But his atypical quietness 
in public should not be mistaken for a lack of activity in 
private. With a few judicious press leaks here and there, 
Koirala is letting it be known widely enough that he is not 
letting up on his rival.  What the proposed constitutional 
amendments will do to address the urgent needs of the 
nation--an end to an increasingly violent insurgency; help 
for a crippled economy; jobs for a burgeoning generation of 
young people--is apparently beside the point. 
 
10.  (C)  Comment continued:  A proliferation of toothless 
anti-corruption Commissions (especially a  three-person team 
suposed to investigate the assets of thousands of public 
employees in just six months) is unlikely to convince anyone 
that the GON is serious about tackling corruption.  Instead 
of spinning its wheels forming new, equally ineffective 
Commissions, the GON should focus instead on giving just one 
of them--probably the Constitutionally sanctioned Commission 
for the Investigation of the Abuse of Authority--the 
wherewithal to have its findings enforced. 
MALINOWSKI