US embassy cable - 05QUITO156

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000156 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EC 
SUBJECT: GOE ATTEMPTS TO GET PAST COURT ISSUE 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Supported by a pro-government march of 
10,000, President Gutierrez introduced his referendum 
proposals in Congress on January 21.  The reforms include a 
method to select a new Supreme Court and other judicial 
institutions.  Already sensing opposition to his referendum 
from within his alliance, Gutierrez has signaled that should 
Congress block the referendum, he would try to bypass that 
institution.  Gutierrez used his January 14 state of the 
nation speech to cite his government's accomplishments and 
reaffirm his government's commitment to propose a neutral 
method to replace current judicial institutions.  He then 
left for New York, where he reportedly convinced financiers 
to approve new and cheaper lending for Ecuador. 
 
2.  (SBU) The political opposition, perhaps sensing citizen 
disinterest in the court issue, is attempting to mobilize 
street protests around other issues.  Guayaquil mayor Jaime 
Nebot is planning a citizen's march on local issues for 
January 26; the indigenous leadership has signaled it will 
focus any call for protests on opposing an FTA with the U.S. 
Despite support from a cross section of civil society, 
opponents of the new Supreme Court have not been able to 
mobilize significant numbers to oppose it.  Instead, they 
have organized media-grabbing events, including a "honk to 
reject the justices" event outside the court, and, on January 
20, a "funeral march for the constitution," which attracted 
2,000.  Former VP and perennial presidential candidate Leon 
Roldos is seeking one million signatures for a rival 
referendum.  Perhaps acceding to these pressures, the new 
Supreme Court president resigned on December 13.  End Summary. 
 
Gutierrez Declares Victory and Departs for NYC 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3.  (U) In his January 14 annual state of the nation address, 
President Gutierrez claimed credit for a long list of 
advances, grouped by the following themes: 
 
-- fight against corruption and impunity 
-- fight against poverty and unemployment 
-- increased productivity and competitiveness 
-- increased security (social, judicial, environmental, and 
citizen) 
-- pragmatic foreign policy and political reform 
 
4.  (U) Gutierrez claimed credit for record low inflation 
rates in 2004, the highest GNP growth rate in the region, and 
the government's fiscal discipline and refusal to raise basic 
commodity prices.  Gutierrez singled out his government's 
belief that an FTA with the U.S. would bring benefits for all 
Ecuadorians, and touted his government's good relations with 
the U.S., Peru and Colombia.  He also acknowledged USG 
support on a number of fronts (including northern border 
development projects).  The message was roundly applauded and 
frequently interrupted with pro-government chants.  The 
government had seeded the auditorium with Gutierrez 
supporters. 
 
Referendum Already In Trouble? 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) Gutierrez traveled to New York on January 15 to 
meet with bankers and creditors. From a press conference 
there, Gutierrez signaled that he knows his referendum may be 
in trouble in Congress.  Should Congress fail to act on his 
proposal quickly, he said, the government would consider 
employing a "Plan B" to reform the courts.  This unspecified 
alternative plan would not require Congressional approval. 
Upon his return to Ecuador, Gutierrez submitted his 
eight-question referendum proposal to Congress, and was 
supported by a staged pro-government march of 10,000, 
according to police sources. 
 
Dueling Marches 
--------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot (PSC) is organizing a 
"pro-security" march for January 26, to protest the central 
government's disallowance of municipal hiring of private 
security guards and other local issues.  PSC leader Leon 
Febres-Cordero will reportedly not participate.  The 
Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) has vowed to organize its 
own rival march for the same date and time.  Authorities seek 
to separate the two to prevent conflict.  Meanwhile, in a fit 
of pique over a perceived slight from the president, VP 
Alfredo Palacio told the press on January 13 that he might 
organize his own (as yet unscheduled) anti-government march. 
The VP's anti-government ruminations were played up by the 
media. 
 
7.  (SBU) Indigenous leaders are sending mixed signals on 
whether they will mobilize to challenge or protest the court 
issue.  CONAIE President Luis Macas has alternately called 
for other social groups to join CONAIE in forming a "parallel 
government," and signaled that CONAIE would reserve efforts 
to mobilize its base for higher priority issues (i.e. 
opposing an FTA with the U.S.).  Pachakutik congressional 
leader Carlos Gonzalez told PolOffs on January 13 that no 
anti-government protests were currently planned, and that the 
FTA remained the indigenous movement's highest priority. 
Civil Society Efforts Start Small 
--------------------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Several notable efforts have been launched by civil 
society to protest Congress' action on the courts, but these 
protests have not coalesced around a unified response.  The 
Episcopal Conference of Bishops quickly and publicly rejected 
Congress' move to replace the Supreme Court and has expressed 
public support for a referendum on the subject.  An umbrella 
group calling itself the Civic Convergence for Democracy is 
protesting the permanence of the new court by holding 
attention-grabbing events for the media, including a "honk 
for new justices" event on January 19 and a "funeral for the 
constitution" march on January 20.  Former Vice President 
Leon Roldos, meanwhile, has proposed his own referendum on 
the court and other unrelated issues, and hopes to collect a 
million signatures to force its acceptance by election 
authorities.  Civic Convergence members have privately 
criticized Roldos' effort, pointing out that the constitution 
prohibits private citizens (but not the government) from 
raising constitutional issues by referendum. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Legal arguments against Congress' December 
replacement of the Supreme Court coming from civil society 
groups are gaining coherence and provoking a defensive 
reaction from the government, but public protest has been 
limited.  The government's proposal to put the issue to a 
referendum seems more a diversion than a realistic option. 
 
10.  (SBU) The political opposition has been hamstrung in 
seeking to capitalize on this issue by its thoroughly 
discredited manipulation of the ousted court.  Nebot's march 
could shift the political momentum, but by changing the 
subject of the march to local issues, has lowered the 
political stakes.  A strong PRE turnout could cancel 
anti-government momentum further.  The VP's posturing is 
ludicrous (but not unprecedented) and has provoked little 
public support.  Despite lack of consensus here on how to 
resolve this constitutional issue, we will continue to engage 
with Congress, civil society and the GoE to encourage efforts 
to strengthen judicial independence. 
Chacon