US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS284

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SNAR, EAID, AF, NATO, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: COORDINATOR FOR AFGHANISTAN QUINN MEETINGS WITH 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION, COUNCIL 
 
 
Classified By: USEU PolOff Sarah Groen for reasons 1.5(b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  On January 20, Coordinator for Afghanistan 
Ambassador Maureen Quinn and a joint State/Department of 
Defense team met with European Council Director General 
Robert Cooper and European Commission South Asia Head of Unit 
Julian Wilson.  Cooper said he is markedly more optimistic 
about the situation in Afghanistan now than he was six months 
ago, primarily because of the successful presidential 
elections and signs of more resolve from the government of 
Afghanistan.  The meeting with Wilson focused more on the 
specifics of EU participation in Afghanistan, with Wilson 
saying the EU has set aside  8 million in funding for the 
parliamentary elections in May, and that any additional 
funding will have to be diverted from other projects. 
Ambassador Quinn thanked the EU for its assistance to 
Afghanistan, and asked for follow-through on commitments and 
additional assistance on alternative livelihoods.  She also 
suggested that the EU consider providing development experts 
who could be stationed with provincial reconstruction teams. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
COOPER: BIG PICTURE IMPROVING 
============================= 
 
2.  (C) Cooper told Ambassador Quinn that he is more positive 
about the situation in Afghanistan now than he was six months 
ago.  He said he had originally thought Karzai "a nice guy" 
but unable to govern effectively; he now sees signs of 
stiffening resolve from the Afghan government (such as 
Karzai's formation of a new cabinet mostly devoid of 
warlords).  It is good that Ismail Khan and Fahim Khan have 
been moved on, Cooper said.  He thought "we should pay 
attention to (former interior minister and presidential 
runner-up Yunus) Qanooni," because "the idea of having an 
opposition is not a bad one."  Qanooni is a natural 
politician, Cooper said, adding that he is "always suspicious 
of a government of national unity." 
 
3.  (C) "Everything goes well except drugs, basically," was 
Cooper's take on the current situation.  Ambassador Quinn 
agreed that the narcotics problem was a "big black cloud," 
but pointed out that the issue is front and center and that 
progress is being made.  She said every effort is being made 
to give the counter-narcotics effort an "Afghan face."  This 
is an area, Quinn said, where the EU could make a big 
contribution, by helping develop alternative livelihoods (an 
area in which it has expertise). 
 
4.  (C) Ambassador Quinn mentioned she had previously met the 
Commission's Julian Wilson and EU Special Representative in 
Afghanistan Francesc Vendrell in New York.  Cooper expressed 
confidence in Vendrell, saying that while he (Cooper) used to 
be more involved in Afghanistan--he participated in the Bonn 
conference--he now defers to Vendrell, and finds him "very 
acute."  (Note: Vendrell's six-month tenure is up for renewal 
in the next month.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (C) Cooper asked about the current status of Operation 
Enduring Freedom.  Ambassador Quinn said our commitment to 
Operation Enduring Freedom is still strong, noting that the 
effort has shifted from counter-terrorism to 
counter-insurgency, with OEF forces staying in one place and 
building relationships with local leaders.  A more robust 
effort by Pakistan along the border has also made a big 
difference.  Both elements have led to successes in recent 
months.  Cooper said he thought a successful 
counter-insurgency effort was all about having a credible 
government that can maintain order. 
 
6.  (C) Ambassador Quinn highlighted the success stories of 
the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), and said we will 
be encouraging more European participation, ideally with the 
contribution of EU development experts to the PRTs.  She also 
pointed out that after the parliamentary elections, the Bonn 
process winds down, and asked if Cooper had any thoughts on 
what might come afterwards.  "It's clear Afghanistan will 
still need a considerable amount of outside support," he said. 
 
7.  (C) Toward the end of the meeting, Cooper seemed to reach 
a main message he wanted to communicate.  "If you want to 
make an impact (in Afghanistan), there is no substitute for 
military involvement," he acknowledged.  But the consequence 
of American military power in Afghanistan is that the EU can 
feel sidelined.  "If you can find ways of recognizing that 
the EU is an important player in Afghanistan, the more likely 
support is to continue," he said.  He said the level of 
overall EU interest in Afghanistan is waning a bit, as 
progress is made there and as other parts of the world become 
more urgent hotspots; Afghanistan now has "less visibility" 
(although certain key member states such as France, Germany 
and the UK are still very focused on the country).  Cooper 
suggested that when President Bush and President Barroso meet 
in February, President Bush should recognize the role of the 
European Commission in Afghanistan.  In response, Ambassador 
Quinn reaffirmed that "we do recognize and value the EU 
commitment" to Afghanistan, and discussed key projects where 
we would welcome further EU contributions:  roads, 
alternative livelihoods and other counter-narcotics 
assistance, and provision of civilian personnel for the PRTs. 
 
 
COMMISSION: ELECTION FUNDING AND LONG-TERM STRATEGY 
============================================= ====== 
 
8.  (C) While Ambassador Quinn's discussion with Cooper 
covered the big picture, her meeting with Julian Wilson of 
the European Commission focused more on specifics of EU 
involvement in Afghanistan, including updates on election 
funding, the EU Kabul-Jalalabad road project, and potential 
shifts in Commission funding over the next several years. 
 
9.  (C) On election funding, Wilson told us the Commission 
has currently set aside  8 million to support the 
Parliamentary elections in May.  This is down from the  21 
million the Commission provided for the presidential 
elections.  Asked why, Wilson pointed out that the initial 
21 million had included funding for voter registration in 
advance of the presidential elections, a one-time task.  He 
assured us, however, that if it comes to a "bun fight" around 
the donors table, where donors have to dig deeper into their 
pockets to meet higher election costs, the EU will be at that 
table because it is important to them politically.  Wilson 
pointed out that if the Commission is to contribute more than 
 8 million to elections, the money will have to be diverted 
from other projects. 
 
10.  (C) Discussing more long-range plans for assistance to 
the region, Wilson said that the Commission's new 7-year 
funding plan (which would cover 2007-2013) would raise the 
overall amount of money allotted to South and Central Asia, 
but that there may be a strategic shift in funding 
priorities, possibly leading to a decrease in funding for 
Afghanistan.  He said the Commission currently provides 
assistance funds in the amount of  200 million annually to 
Afghanistan and  50 million to Pakistan; in the next 
seven-year plan, that amount could rise to  400 million 
annually for both countries, with  150 million going to 
Afghanistan. 
 
11. (C) This re-alignment fits, Wilson said, with the EU's 
conception of Afghanistan as a "symptom" of wider problems in 
that part of the world, problems which must be addressed in 
countries such as Pakistan if Afghanistan is to be 
successful.  He said the EU is interested in taking a 
"longer-term, coherent" approach to the region, which would 
put Afghanistan in the context of neighbors to the north as 
well as to the east.  He suggested that in the long run, 
there might be an internal reorganization at the European 
Commission that would group together offices dealing with 
South and Central Asian countries all the way from Iran to 
Bangladesh.  Wilson stressed that the new funding plan is 
still under the discussion, and that the decisions on how to 
prioritize the funding are made "far above my pay grade." 
The 2007-2013 financial plan will probably be completed later 
this year. 
 
12.  (C) Wilson raised the issue of the timetable for 
parliamentary elections.  Ambassador Quinn said that Karzai 
and the Government of Afghanistan are starting to make key 
decisions which need to happen before elections.  Our sense, 
she told him, is that elections can happen by late May or 
early June at the latest, and that it is important to stick 
to thise original timeframe so that the attention of the 
international community does not shift elsewhere.  Wilson 
noted that personnel support for the elections could also be 
a factor; many UN personnel are reaching the ends of their 
contracts, and are choosing not to renew.  This may be due to 
the fatigue of working in a stressful area, and also to the 
fact that world attention has to some extent shifted 
elsewhere, and other crises are now more immediate. 
 
13.  (C) Finally, Ambassador Quinn touched briefly on the 
issue of Commission support for the Italian judicial sector 
project (which Wilson said he would look into), and asked 
about the status of the Commission-funded Kabul-Jalalabad 
road.  Commission Afghanistan Desk Officer Jonathan Hatwell, 
who visited Afghanistan and checked on the road project in 
November 2004, said that the project has largely recovered 
from a June 2004 attack that killed several employees of a 
Chinese company working on the EU project.  Extra security 
was put in place, and he believes the work is now back on 
track, progressing at a rate of 10-12 kilometers per month. 
 
14.  (U) Ambassador Quinn cleared this cable. 
 
MCKINLEY 
.