US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV381

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000381 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2009 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, KWBG, GZ, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: PA SECURITY FORCES BEGIN DEPLOYING IN NORTHERN GAZA 
 
Classified By: Pol/C Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary: A force of some 2,000 PA security personnel 
began deploying in the northeastern Gaza Strip, near Bayt 
Hanoun and Bayt Lahiya January 21 in an agreed-upon effort 
between the IDF and Gaza security chief Mousa Arafat aimed at 
preventing rocket fire at Israeli towns.  Observers on the 
ground report that the numbers should be sufficient to the 
task at hand and that the men themselves appear confident 
they will be able to accomplish their mission without a 
strong challenge from the militants, as they believe Abu 
Mazen has come to "understanding" with these groups not to 
launch attacks.  One journalist, however, reported that she 
came across members of one Fatah splinter group assessing the 
seriousness of the PA's effort to stop their activity.  Other 
Fatah-affiliated militants have let it be known that unless 
all militant groups agree to stop their actions 
simultaneously, they will not abide by any cease-fire.  They 
argue that absent a full cease-fire, the GOI will continue to 
target them.  End Summary. 
 
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Boots on the Ground 
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2.  (SBU) Confirming Israeli media reports, Ministry of 
Interior DG for Community Affairs Abdulsamia Efrangi told 
Poloff January 21 that approximately 2,000 PA security 
personnel in total were beginning to deploy in northern Gaza 
to prevent rocket fire at Israel emanating from the area 
around Bayt Hanoun.  In response to Poloff's question, 
Efrangi clarified that, given the 24-hour nature of the task 
at hand, the 2,000-man deployment translates into some 
500-700 personnel on the ground at any one time.  Efrangi 
added that the number initially deployed January 21 could be 
smaller than 500, as Palestinians celebrate the second day of 
the Eid al-Adha holiday.  On the ground visual inspection by 
international personnel and journalists January 21 appeared 
to confirm that number.  Movement restrictions through Abu 
Khouli and the ensuing difficulty of gathering forces 
together in the north were also cited as possible reasons for 
a slightly more drawn-out deployment.  Any slight delay in 
deployment notwithstanding, Efrangi claimed that Mousa Arafat 
is determined that the deployment succeed.  "It is his big 
test," Efrangi said. 
 
3.  (SBU) UNSECOORD representative in Gaza Simon Butt 
assessed that the 2,000 personnel announced by the PA are 
sufficient to the task of securing the Bayt Hanoun area. 
Butt said that additional forces would be required if the PA 
decides to secure the area around Khan Yunis, some 15 miles 
away, to prevent mortar and rocket attacks against the Katif 
settlement bloc.  Khan Yunis is well known as an area where 
residents are actively hostile to the PA, whereas residents 
of Bayt Hanoun are, on the contrary, appealing for order and 
protection from Israeli retaliation generated by the militant 
activity there. 
 
4. (SBU) The number of rockets fired within and from Gaza 
dropped dramatically in the two days prior to the deployment 
and following the barrage of rockets attacks January 15-18 
that killed an Israeli teenager in Sderot and injured several 
other people.  Israeli and Palestinian commentators viewed 
the high rate of militant attacks as an attempt by the 
militant groups to strengthen their positions prior to the 
resumption of talks with Abu Mazen, now currently underway. 
Gazans with whom Poloff spoke ascribed the drop in no small 
part to the onset of the Eid al-Adha holiday. 
 
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PA Security and Militants Both Appear Confident 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5.  (C) NYT stringer Taghreed el-Khodary told Poloff that she 
traveled along with a PA security team the morning of January 
21 as they deployed on the outskirts of Bayt Hanoun, well 
known as a location from which militants fire Qassams into 
Israel.  El-Khodary said that the troops appeared confident 
that they were up to the task of securing the area.  Asked 
how they would respond to attempts by militants to fire 
rockets from the area under their control, the troops 
reportedly said they would "carry out their duties" without 
hesitation.  That being said, team members also expressed the 
belief that their leadership had "come to an agreement" with 
Hamas not to launch attacks and that they would not be 
seriously challenged.  Whether or not the agreement is 
public, el-Khodary concluded, these men were confident that 
it was, indeed, in place. 
 
6.  (C) El-Khodary told Poloff that while observing the 
deployment of PA security forces near the Erez Crossing, she 
had met a "carload" of Aymon Juda militants (nominally under 
the umbrella of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades) who were out 
doing the same thing.  The militants, according to the 
journalist, made no attempt to dissemble when she questioned 
them about their purpose: they were there to observe and 
determine whether the deployment is "serious." 
 
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All or Nothing 
-------------- 
 
7.  (C) Gaza journalist Nidal al-Mughrabi, who also has good 
access to al-Aqsa faction leaders, told Poloff recently that, 
based on conversations with several commanders, he understood 
that the Fatah factions would indeed be ready to sign on to a 
cease-fire, but only/only if all militant groups, including 
the Fatah splinter groups sign on simultaneously.  The 
commanders also demanded that they be guaranteed both jobs 
and safety from Israeli attack.  Without the full basket, 
there would be no deal.  Al-Mughrabi said that the more 
radical organizations such as the Popular Resistance 
Committees, Fatah Hawks and Abu Rish Brigades are less 
inclined to agree. 
 
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