US embassy cable - 05PARIS387

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000387 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH INAUGURATION IRAQ - 
ELECTIONS MIDDLE EAST 
PARIS - FRIDAY, JANUARY 21, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. BUSH INAUGURATION 
2. IRAQ - ELECTIONS 
3. MIDDLE EAST 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
YESTERDAY'S STRIKES ARE TODAY'S FRONT-PAGE STORY, EXCEPT FOR 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE, WHICH TITLES "EUROPE, IRAQ, IRAN, 
CHINA: WHAT THE WORLD EXPECTS FROM GEORGE BUSH." THE INSIDE 
STORIES REPORTING ON THE PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION ARE TITLED 
"BUSH II AS A MISSIONARY `FOR LIBERTY FOR THE WORLD'" (LE 
FIGARO); "BUSH, THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE FIREFIGHTER" 
(LIBERATION); "THE WORLD ACCORDING TO BUSH II" (LE PARISIEN) 
AND "GEORGE W. BUSH, DEFENDER OF LIBERTY" (FRANCE SOIR). SOME 
REGIONAL COMMENTARY FOCUSED ON THE INAUGURAL SPEECH. (SEE PART 
C) 
 
IRAQ AND THE COMING ELECTIONS ARE THE SUBJECT OF A FRONT-PAGE 
OP-ED BY ALAIN FRACHON IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE TITLED 
"ELECTIONS IN IRAQ AND FEAR OF THE SHIITES." FRACHON EXPLAINS: 
"WITH THE COMING ELECTIONS, ARAB CAPITALS IN THE REGION DO NOT 
KNOW WHETHER THEY SHOULD FEAR MORE DEMOCRACY AS A PRECEDENT, 
INCREASING VIOLENCE OR A CIVIL WAR BETWEEN SHIITES AND 
SUNNIS." (SEE PART C) RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO INTERVIEWS 
GERARD CHALIAND, AN EXPERT ON CONFLICTS, AND THE AUTHOR OF A 
BOOK ON THE TWO IRAQI WARS: "THE MILITARY SITUATION HAS 
WORSENED. BUT NOT HOLDING THE ELECTIONS ON JANUARY 30 WOULD BE 
AN OBVIOUS SIGN OF FAILURE. MY PREDICTION IS THAT THE RESULTS 
WILL BE LAME, BECAUSE ONE CANNOT HOPE TO REBUILD A POST-BAATH 
IRAQ WITHOUT THE SUNNIS, AND APPARENTLY THEY ARE NOT 
PARTICIPATING." 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT'S EDITORIAL ON THE MIDDLE EAST 
URGES THE U.S. TO WEIGH IN ON THE PARTIES, WHILE IT CRITICIZES 
EUROPE'S LIMITED INFLUENCE AND FRANCE'S LACK OF CREDIBILITY 
WITH ISRAEL BECAUSE OF ITS PRO-ARAB STANCE. (SEE PART C) 
 
EUROPE AS A TARGET OF A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL REPORT 
IS THE BASIS FOR A STORY IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO BY 
BRUSSELS'S CORRESPONDENT, ALEXANDRINE BOUILHET: "SEEN FROM 
WASHINGTON, THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT A POWER OF THE FUTURE. 
ACCORDING TO THE CIA'S STUDY, `MAPPING THE GLOBAL FUTURE,' 
EUROPE WILL BE UNABLE TO PLAY THE PREDOMINANT ROLE IT WANTS TO 
PLAY ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE. THESE CONCLUSIONS HAVE SENT A 
CHILL ACROSS BRUSSELS. EUROCRATS ARE ALL THE MORE ANNOYED 
ABOUT THE REPORT AND ITS SIMPLISTIC AND `PESSIMISTIC' VISION 
OF EUROPE BECAUSE THEY ARE CAREFULLY PLANNING FOR PRESIDENT 
BUSH'S VISIT NEXT MONTH. `WHY, THEY ASK, WOULD THE PRESIDENT 
OF THE U.S. WASTE HIS TIME COMING TO BRUSSELS IF THE EU IS 
INDEED SUCH A NEGLIGIBLE QUANTITY?'" 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
BUSH INAUGURATION 
 
"SEMANTICS" 
FRANOIS BCET IN REGIONAL L'ALSACE (01/21): "FOR THE MOMENT, 
ONLY THE VOCABULARY HAS CHANGED. THE AXIS OF EVIL HAS GIVEN 
WAY TO `OUTPOSTS OF TYRANNY,'... BUT THE WAY TO SOLVE PROBLEMS 
AND THE OBJECTIVES HAVE NOT CHANGED." 
 
"HELPING BUSH" 
JEAN-CLAUDE KIEFER IN REGIONAL DERNIERES NOUVELLES D'ALSACE 
(01/21): "WE NEED TO HELP THE UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH IT IS 
`THE' WORLD'S NUMBER ONE MILITARY POWER, THE U.S. IS 
POLITICALLY WEAK. IT SYSTEMATICALLY HAS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLES TO 
GET WHAT IT WANTS, WITH THE RISK OF ALWAYS HAVING TO ACT 
T 
FORCEFULLY TO REMAIN CREDIBLE. THIS IS RISKY FOR THE ENTIRE 
WORLD. HOW CAN WE HELP BUSH? BY TIRELESSLY TRYING TO BE 
HEARD." 
"DIPLOMACY" 
PHYILIPPE WAUCAMPT IN REGIONAL LE RPUBLICAIN LORRAIN (01/21): 
"THE U.S. SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERSTOOD THE LIMITS OF DIPLOMACY BY 
WHIP AND SCORN, SEEING THAT IT HAS CAUSED THE REJECTION OF 
AMERICA AND REINFORCED TERRORISM. THE PR-HUMANITARIAN 
OPERATION MOUNTED AFTER THE TSUNAMI SHOWS THAT THE REPUBLICAN 
ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO BE LIKED, BUT THERE ARE LIMITS IN THE 
NEO-PURITAN VIEW OF A WORLD IN BLACK AND WHITE WHERE THOSE WHO 
ARE NOT WITH AMERICA ARE AGAINST HER." 
 
IRAQ - ELECTIONS 
 
"ELECTIONS IN IRAQ AND FEAR OF THE SHIITES" 
ALAIN FRACHON IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (01/21): "WITH THE 
COMING ELECTIONS, ARAB CAPITALS IN THE REGION DO NOT KNOW 
WHETHER THEY SHOULD FEAR MORE DEMOCRACY AS A PRECEDENT, 
INCREASING VIOLENCE OR A CIVIL WAR BETWEEN SHIITES AND SUNNIS. 
IN THE 1980'S IT WAS IRAN'S SHIITES WHO WERE FEARED. TODAY THE 
DANGER WOULD BE COMING FROM IRAQ. AFTER TEHERAN, BAGHDAD'S NEW 
SHIITE POWER COULD GALVANIZE ALL SHIITE MINORITIES IN THE 
REGION AND LEAD TO INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST. 
ALREADY, TEHERAN'S SHIITE THEOCRACY IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR 
WASHINGTON. FROM THE SHORES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN TO THE GULF, 
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHIITE REGIME IN BAGHDAD IS PERCEIVED IN 
THE ARAB WORLD AS A POLITICAL UPHEAVAL WITHOUT PRECEDENT. 
IMAGINING THAT THIS NEW POWER COULD ALIGN WITH TEHERAN IS 
ENOUGH TO GIVE CERTAIN ARAB COUNTRIES NIGHTMARES. BUT IS THIS 
SCENARIO PLAUSIBLE? NOT QUITE. FIRST BECAUSE THE RELATIONSHIP 
BETWEEN IRAQ'S POLITICAL SHIITE BASE AND TEHERAN'S IS A 
COMPLEX ONE. IRAQ'S SHIITES ARE PROFOUNDLY `ARAB,' LEADING TO 
A NON-AVOWED DISTANCE WITH IRAN'S PRO-PERSIAN SHIITES. IN 
SHORT, THE RELATIONSHIP IS AS MUCH ONE OF PARTNERSHIP AS IT IS 
ONE OF RIVALRY." 
 
MIDDLE EAST 
 
"A GLIMMER OF LIGHT IN JERUSALEM?" 
CLAUDE IMBERT IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT (01/21): "THE 
SIGNS OF HOPE COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WILL SOON BE STIFLED 
UNLESS THE U.S. DECIDES TO WEIGH IN ON THE PROCESS. HAVING 
BEEN WELL ELECTED, PRESIDENT BUSH HAS A FREE HAND TO ACT. 
CAUGHT IN THE CALAMITOUS QUAGMIRE OF IRAQ, INTERNATIONALLY 
AFFECTED BY GROWING ANTI-AMERICANISM, HE IS TAKING THE MEASURE 
OF WHAT HE COULD GAIN FROM A PEACEFUL CONCLUSION OF ONE OF THE 
MOST NEFARIOUS CONFLICTS EVER. BUSH HAS OPENLY SUPPORTED 
SHARON, BUT BEHIND THE SCENE HE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED TIES WITH 
ABU MAZEN'S MODERATES. HE CAN COUNT ON MUBARAK AS AN ALLY. AND 
THE SAUDI REGIME IS PROMISING TO BE INCREASINGLY VIGILANT: 
THEY CAN FEEL THE FLAMES COMING CLOSER. TEHERAN IS THE 
REGIONAL JOKER. FOR THE TIME BEING WASHINGTON IS LETTING THE 
EUROPEANS FEEL THEIR WAY AROUND. IN THIS HIGH-RISK GAME, THE 
EUROPEANS WILL ONLY HAVE A MORAL INFLUENCE, AS THEY CONTINUE 
TO GIVE WASHINGTON THE SUPPORT IT EXPECTS, BUT NO MORE. 
FRANCE, BY ALIGNING WITH EVERY ARAB DEMAND, HAS LOST THE 
RESPECT OF ISRAEL. SINCE THE FAILURES OF THE CLINTON-BARAK- 
ARAFAT TRIO, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. TODAY SHARON AND ABU 
MAZEN ARE IN A POSITION TO DIALOGUE AND TO DECIDE. TO HELP 
THEM WE MUST BELIEVE IN THEM. BUT MOSTLY THEY EACH NEED TO 
BELIEVE IN THE OTHER." WOLFF