US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI549

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000549 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECIN, IN, ASEAN 
SUBJECT: INDIA ON EAST ASIA SUMMIT: NOT WITHOUT ME 
 
REF: A. SINGAPORE 148 
     B. 04 STATE 275091 
     C. 04 NEW DELHI 8051 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt.  Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Following the November 2004 ASEAN Plus One 
Summit in Vientiane, the MEA scoffed at the idea of an East 
Asia Summit, but a recent conversation with MEA Joint 
Secretary (Southeast Asia Two) Biren Nanda indicates India 
 
SIPDIS 
has shifted from that position.  It now appears that India, 
if invited, would welcome the opportunity to participate. 
The Singapore High Commission has told us that India has not 
made a concerted effort to secure an invitation, which may 
reflect what one New Delhi foreign policy expert describes as 
the GOI's perception that Southeast Asia wants India's 
presence in the region as a balance to China.  End Summary. 
 
India Changes Its Mind 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C) In a January 14 meeting with PolCouns and Poloff, the 
MEA's Biren Nanda avoided a detailed discussion of the East 
Asia Summit (EAS), but his quiet insistence that India's 
participation was up to the ASEAN members was in sharp 
contrast to his colleague, Joint Secretary (Southeast Asia 
One) Mitra Vashishta's (protect) vehement dismissal of the 
Summit in December (ref C).  Whereas Vashishta argued that 
the EAS would be "a waste of time," telling PolCouns that one 
of the GOI's objectives in Vientiane was to make New Delhi's 
position known, Nanda said India was interested in closer 
ties with ASEAN, and would be happy to participate in an EAS 
if invited.  Disguising his earlier enthusiasm, later in the 
conversation Nanda reiterated that India's invitation to the 
EAS was ASEAN's decision to make, adding that "we have 
engagement through ASEAN Plus One." 
 
New Delhi's Not Trying Very Hard 
-------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Singapore High Commission First Secretary Edmund Chia 
told Poloff on January 20 that if India is not included in 
the first EAS, it will not be possible to have New Delhi 
participate for a long time.  The majority inclination in 
ASEAN right now, he continued, is not to invite India, adding 
that Singapore does support bringing in the GOI, as reported 
in ref A.  Part of the problem, Chia remarked, is that New 
Delhi is not trying very hard.  He characterized New Delhi's 
foreign policy attitude as more focused on the larger 
countries and regions, particularly, the US, the EU, and 
sometimes China.  Therefore, no one in the GOI really pays 
attention to Southeast or East Asia until the Foreign 
Minister is about to take a trip.  While India would probably 
like to be included in the EAS, Chia observed, he has seen no 
GOI lobbying for it. 
 
They Really Like Us 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In December, the MEA's Vashishta commented to 
PolCouns that "Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand are all on 
our side, because of the magic of the PM."  Capturing that 
attitude, Jawarhalal Nehru University Professor of East Asian 
Studies Manmohini Kaul remarked to Poloff recently on 
Southeast Asia's view of New Delhi, "India is wanted in the 
region, but the question is, how keen is India?"  New Delhi 
is still "preoccupied" with South Asia as an area of 
immediate and ongoing concern, she noted, explaining that 
India is more comfortable with South Asian groupings where 
India is "in the driver's seat" than it is in the more 
diverse and competitive ASEAN milieu.  On the GOI's East Asia 
policy, Kaul, who is also on a kitchen cabinet of advisors to 
the Indian Foreign Secretary, pointed out that India does 
want to play a larger role, but is not "executing" the way 
China has. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C) With the assumption in the Foreign Ministry that the 
invitation is in the mail, GOI opposition to the EAS seems to 
have vanished.  As we had suspected, GOI opposition to the 
EAS was rooted in a fear of being left out, more than 
concerns about redundancy with ASEAN Plus Three.  In contrast 
to the MEA attitude at the Laos Summit, Nanda's recent 
comments ("it's up to ASEAN") reflect the non-proactive 
position Singapore has observed.  India appears unwilling to 
make the effort to secure a seat at the EAS, but will 
certainly take notice if not invited, as is the case with the 
GOI's lingering unhappiness at not being involved with APEC. 
MULFORD