US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA89

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000089 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM BRAZZAVILLE EMBASSY OFFICE 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER; DEPT FOR AF/C - BARGERON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2009 
TAGS: ECON, PGOV, PREL, CF 
SUBJECT: CONGO/B: POST-NEW GOVERNMENT - WHAT'S NEXT FOR 
CONGO'S FUTURE 
 
REF: A) KINSHASA 80 B) KINSHASA 2115 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBIN R. SANDERS FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
 1.    (C)  SUMMARY:   ALTHOUGH THE SHOCK THAT THE GOVERNMENT 
ANNOUNCED BY PRESIDENT SASSOU ON JANUARY 8, IS NOT NEW AT ALL 
BUT MAINTAINS MANY OF THE COUNTRY,S WELL-KNOWN HARDLINERS 
HAS WORN AWAY A BIT, THE ATMOSPHERE OF DISAPPOINTMENT 
PREVAILS THAT SASSOU MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY TO LIVE UP TO HIS 
YEAR LONG RHETORIC ON PERMANENT AND LASTING POLITICAL AND 
ECONOMIC REFORM.  THE RECONFIGURED CABINET HAS ALMOST NO NEW 
THINKERS IN IT AND SASSOU CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY MANY 
OF THE OLDER GENERATION WHO WERE TRAINED IN THE FORMER SOVIET 
UNION AND ARE NOT SUPPORTERS OF FREE MARKET OR POLITICAL 
REFORM. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONGO IN THE SHORT AND 
MEDIUM TERM EITHER POLITICALLY OR ECONOMICALLY.  WE WILL NEED 
TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHETHER CONGO NOT ONLY MAINTAINS PAST 
REFORMS AND TRANSPARENCY EFFORT, BUT ALSO THAT IT ADVANCES 
THESE EFFORTS IN ORDER TO STAY ON THE IMF PRGF PROGRAM AND TO 
REEARN MODEST CONSIDERATION WITH THE IFIS AFTER THE 
NON-REAPPOINTMENT OF FORMER FINANCE MINISTER ANDLEY.  THERE 
ARE INITIAL WORRYING ECONOMIC SIGNS THAT ROLLBACKS COULD 
HAPPEN GIVEN THAT THE NEW DIRECTOR OF THE STATE OIL COMPANY 
SNPC, DENIS GOKANA, IS SASSOU,S NEPHEW WHO PREVIOUSLY SERVED 
AS A SPECIAL ADVISOR AT THE PRESIDENCY.  ALTHOUGH SNPC HAD 
MADE SOME TRANSPARENCY IMPROVEMENTS TO MEET IMF MEASURES 
THERE ARE STILL SNPC AUDIT COMMITMENTS THAT MUST BE MET.  THE 
NEW GOVERNMENT LIST AND PHOTOS HAVE BEEN FAXED TO DEPARTMENT. 
 WITH THE RECONFIGURED CABINET, CONGO'S NEAR AND MEDIUM TERM 
FUTURE DOES NOT LOOK THAT BRIGHT.   END SUMMARY. 
 
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A LOOK AT SASSOU: A CASE OF POLITICAL SURVIVAL 
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2.  (C)     PRESIDENT SASSOU HAS SPENT THE LAST YEAR ENSURING 
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS OF HIS COMMITMENT TO BOTH POLITICAL 
AND ECONOMIC REFORM.  BOTH HIS NATIONAL DAY (REF B), AND NEW 
YEAR,S DAY REMARKS (REF A) STRESSED THESE POINTS AND, FOR 
OUR PART, SASSOU UNDERSCORED THIS CHANGE AND COMMITMENT WITH 
ALL US VISITORS, OFFICIAL AND PRIVATE SECTOR.   WHAT WE 
UNDERSTAND, HOWEVER, IS THAT SASSOU,S POLITICAL POWER OR 
CONTINUED HOLD ON SUCH REQUIRED HIM TO MOVE AWAY FOR HIS 
STATED VISION (SUCH AS ESTABLISHING A REFORM POLITICAL PARTY) 
FOR THE COUNTRY, IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO APPEASE THE NUMEROUS 
HARDLINERS - ALL WHO REPRESENT VARIOUS NORTHERN ETHNIC GROUPS 
(E.G. MBOKI, MBETY, BOMITABA, LEKOBA, MBONGO, AND LIKOULA). 
THESE GROUPS HELPED HIM AND HIS SMALL MBOCHI CLAN WIN THE 
1997-2001 CONFLICTS. NORTHERN GROUPS FROM THE LIKOULA AREA 
CONTROL MOST OF THE REPUBLICAN GUARD AND MILITARY, AND MANY 
OF THOSE MEMBERS WERE IN SASSOU,S WAR FIGHTING COBRA MILITIA 
UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF ANGOLAN FORCES AND WITH MEMBERS OF 
THE INTERAHAMWE. 
 
3.  (C)     DURING MOST OF 2004, THE INTERNAL STRUGGLES 
WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT WERE EVIDENT. THE GOVERNMENT WAS SPLIT 
BETWEEN PRO-IMF/POLITICAL REFORMERS, AND THE HARDLINERS WHO 
FOUGHT TRANSPARENCY EVERY STEP OF THE WAY AS IT HINDERED 
THEIR ABILITY FOR PERSONAL ENRICHMENT.  THE REFORMERS, WITH 
STRONG BACKING FROM SASSOU IN 2004 WERE FEW:  FINANCE 
MINISTER ANDLEY, HEALTH MINISTER MOKA, INFORMATION MINISTER 
AKOULA, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE ARMED 
FORCES, GENERAL MONDJO.  FORMER FINANCE MINISTER ANDLEY,S 
SURVIVAL WAS ALWAYS LINKED TO THE CONSTANT SUPPORT AND 
PROTECTION OF THE PRESIDENT.  IN LATE 2004 AND IN THE EARLY 
DAYS OF  2005, AFTER SASSOU,S REMARKS OF STRONG APPRECIATION 
FOR THE SUPPORT FROM THE IFIS AND CONGO,S APPROVAL FOR THE 
IMF/PRGF PROGRAM, HARDLINERS MOVED IN TO NOT ONLY CONVINCE 
SASSOU THAT ANDLEY WAS NO LONGER NEEDED BECAUSE CONGO "HAD 
THE IMF PROGRAM NOW," BUT AS WE UNDERSTAND, REMINDED HIM THAT 
HIS POLITICAL SURVIVAL DEPENDED ON THEIR CONTINUED SUPPORT. 
IN THE END, IT APPEARS HE CHOSE POLITICAL SURVIVAL OVER 
REFORM. 
 
 
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       CONVERSATION WITH FORMER FINANCE MINISTER ANDLEY 
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4.  (C)     IN SPEAKING WITH OUT GOING FINANCE MINISTER 
ANDLEY JANUARY 8-10, HE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HIS 
NON-REAPPOINTMENT CAME AS A SURPRISE WHEN HE WAS INFORMED 
JUST BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT.   HE SAID 
THE PRESIDENT MET WITH HIM FOR FOUR HOURS OUTLINING THAT HE 
HAD WANTED TO KEEP HIM IN THE POSITION BUT THAT THERE WAS 
STRONG OPPOSITION FROM MANY IN THE INNER CIRCLE.  ANDLEY ALSO 
REMARKED THAT SASSOU SAID HE WANTED TO "PROTECT ANDLEY" FROM 
ANY HARM THAT MIGHT COME TO HIM, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPEN TO 
ANDLEY,S BROTHER.  (NOTE:  ANDLEY,S OLDER BROTHER, WHO WAS 
IN CHARGE OF CONGO,S VERSION OF THE NATIONAL LOTTERY, WAS 
MYSTERIOUSLY KILLED IN A HOTEL IN PARIS LATE 1980S WHEN 
TRAVELING WITH A GROUP OF CONGOLESE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. 
RUMORS WERE THAT HE WAS KILLED BECAUSE OF THE MONEY INVOLVED 
IN THE LOTTERY. END NOTE).   ANDLEY ADDED THAT SASSOU TOLD 
HIM THAT HE WOULD CONSIDER BRINGING HIM BACK WHEN THE 
POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE WAS LESS CHARGED, AND IN THE MEANTIME HE 
WOULD NOMINATE HIM TO RETURN TO HIS OLD JOB AS VICE GOVERNOR 
OF THE BANK OF CENTRAL AFRICA.  ANDLEY EXPLAINED TO THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT HE DID "THE BEST HE COULD TO HELP HIS 
COUNTRY," AND THAT HE IS WALKING AWAY WITHOUT REGRETS. 
 
5.  (C)     ANDLEY ALSO SHED LIGHT ON SOME OF HIS STRONGEST 
ENEMIES AND THOSE HE HAD TO ALWAYS BLOCK FROM USING THE 
TREASURY AND STATE RESOURCES AS PERSONAL FINANCIAL VEHICLES. 
THEY INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:  THE NEW PRIME 
MINISTER, ISIDOIRE MVOUBA (FORMER MINISTER OF GOVERNMENT 
COORDINATION), ENVIRONMENT MINISTER DJOMBO, AND MINISTER OF 
PLAN PIERRE MOUSSA.  OTHER HARDLINERS INCLUDE THE MINISTERS 
OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (ADADA), DEFENSE (NDOLOU), SECURITY 
(MBOT), MINES (OBA), AND TERRITORIAL ADMINISTRATION (IBOVI). 
THESE REPRESENT THE KITCHEN CABINET OF THE PRESIDENT. 
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A PLETHORA OF "FAMILY HARDLINE ADVISORS" 
AT THE PRESIDENCY WHO ALSO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON SASSOU 
INCLUDING HIS NEPHEW, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR JEAN 
DOMINIQUE OKEMBA, AND HIS UNCLE MINISTER OF STATE EMMANUEL 
YOKA. 
 
 
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BIO NOTE ON NEW FINANCE MINISTER ISSOIBEKA 
 
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6.  (C)     CONGO,S NEW FINANCE MINISTER PACIFIQUE ISSOEBEKA 
HAS SERVED AS THE VICE GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF AFRICA 
IN YAOUNDE FOR THE LAST TWO AND HALF YEARS. PRIOR TO THAT HE 
WAS DIRECTOR OF THE BRAZZAVILLE BRANCH OFFICE OF THE CENTRAL 
AFRICA BANK.  HE IS 63 YEARS OLD AND IN THE 1970S SERVED AS 
THE DIRECTOR OF CONGO,S NATIONAL SUGAR COMPANY.  IN 
AMBASSADOR,S INITIAL MEETING WITH ISSOIBEKA HE DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO HAVE THE DRIVE OF ENERGY OF THE FORMER FINANCE 
MINISTER.  HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE HOW HE 
HANDLES THE POLITICAL PRESSURES THAT WILL COME FROM MANY OF 
THE HARDLINERS WHO MAY BE LOOKING TO RETURN TO ENRICHING 
THEMSELVES FROM STATE RESOURCES. 
 
 
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OTHER ATMOSPHERICS - WEAPON CACHES 
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7.  (C)     THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER THE LAST WEEK OF THE 
DISAPPEARANCE OF VARIOUS WEAPONS CACHES AS WELL AS THE THEFT 
OF WEAPONS FROM SEVERAL MILITARY COMPOUNDS.  THIS MAY OR MAY 
NOT BE LINKED TO VARIOUS CONCERNS REGARDING THE CHANGE IN 
GOVERNMENT.   POST WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ISSUE TO 
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THERE ARE LINKAGES TO THE GOVERNMENT 
CHANGE OR WHETHER THIS IS THE NORMAL CONGO BEHAVIOR OF 
STEALING WEAPONS FOR CASH. 
 
8.  (U) BRAZZAVILLE OFFICE - SANDERS 
 
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MEECE