US embassy cable - 05HOCHIMINHCITY58

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HO CHI MINH CITY 000058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
USDOC for 6500 and 4431/MAC/AP/OPB/VLC/HPPHO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EAGR, KPAO, SENV, PGOV, SOCI, VM, AFLU 
SUBJECT: AVIAN FLU:  FRESH OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN 
VIETNAM 
 
REF:  04 HO CHI MINH CITY 001258 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  Since the end of December 2004, 
Vietnam's southern provinces have experienced a 
renewed outbreak of avian flu.  Southern provincial 
authorities have issued a ban on the transport of 
poultry and poultry products within and out of 
disease-stricken areas.  Chicken is disappearing from 
local menus and markets, though the availability and 
popularity of eggs so far remains unchanged.  Local 
media reports on the outbreak have been timely and 
widespread, significantly raising public awareness 
about this most recent outbreak of avian flu.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) In the past two weeks, Vietnamese doctors 
have confirmed five people have died from becoming 
infected with the H5N1 virus, with three other 
possible cases waiting to be confirmed.  A total of 16 
have been hospitalized as suspected cases, all within 
southern Vietnam.   The Animal Health Department 
reported on January 16 that a total of 67,038 
chickens, 68,203 ducks and geese, and 98,750 quail 
have been culled or died of avian flu in southern 
Vietnam. 
 
3. (SBU) Since December 26, 2004, major news dailies 
based in Ho Chi Minh City have been reporting 
prominently on the fresh outbreak of avian flu (H5N1) 
in Vietnam.  The papers have given the story front 
page, above-the-fold coverage, with more detailed 
stories continuing on page three.  Leading papers 
covering the story include the Communist Party paper 
of HCMC 'Saigon Giaiphong' ('Saigon Liberation'), 
'Nguoi Lao Dong' ('The 'Worker') and 'Tuoi Tre' 
('Youth'), the highest circulation general interest 
daily in the nation.  Vietnamese reporters, who tend 
to err on the side of caution in reporting health 
crises, appear to be building on their experience with 
the first avian flu outbreak in 2004.  The reporting 
is more detailed, analytical and avoids inclusion of 
more sensational comments from outside observers.  To 
date, this reporting seems to have achieved partial, 
if not complete, success in raising awareness of avian 
flu. 
 
4. (SBU) Often with accompanying photos, coverage has 
been both factual and analytical.  For example, "The 
Worker" reported that the transport of poultry on 
passenger buses from the Mekong Delta region to HCMC 
would increase the risk of the spread of bird flu. 
After this report, transporting poultry in passenger 
cars was banned.  Newspapers have conducted interviews 
with local Vietnamese health officials and 
veterinarians highlighting the risks, seeking to raise 
public awareness of the disease.  Southern provincial 
authorities have since issued a ban on the transport 
and trade of poultry and poultry products within or 
out of the 18 provinces in the Mekong Delta affected 
by avian flu.  Additionally, Prime Minister Phan Van 
Khai issued a directive this week to temporarily ban 
all imported poultry and poultry products from 
neighboring countries. 
 
5. (SBU) A sure sign that public awareness is on the 
rise is the decline in chicken prices and the 
disappearance of poultry from many menus.  According 
to a local caterer, poultry prices have been dropping 
since early January.  The price of poultry in December 
was VND27,300/kg, falling to VND25,500/kg by the 
second week of January.  Customer orders for chicken 
declined significantly by the second week of January 
and school cafeterias dropped orders for chicken 
completely.  Starting next week, the caterer will not 
offer chicken at all due to declining demand and for 
reasons of safety.  One local expatriate grocer told 
EconOff that she has not noted any change in either 
supply or price of poultry since the most recent avian 
flu outbreak.  However, this grocer sources all of her 
poultry locally through one supplier, and the grocer 
admitted she was unsure how long her supplier would be 
able to meet the even lower levels of demand. 
 
6. (SBU) Comparatively, the past week and a half has 
seen an increase in prices for other types of meat, 
according to local contacts.  The most notable 
increase has been in the price of fish, a ready 
substitute for chicken.  Mackerel prices have risen 
from VND24,000/kg to VND30,000/kg and tuna from 
VND12,000/kg to VN16,000/kg.  Pork has also seen a 
moderate price increase, with pork ribs increasing 
from VND36,000/kg to VND40,000/kg and lean cuts of 
pork from VND32,000/kg to VND35,000/kg.  Beef prices 
continue to remain stable.  Current events do not 
appear to have had an effect on egg prices or 
consumption levels. 
 
7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Vietnam will continue to struggle 
with avian flu, which will directly affect the 
stability of local poultry markets.  The swiftness of 
this most recent outbreak highlights the potential for 
Vietnam to import U.S. poultry products to meet local 
demand, especially given the recent ban on poultry 
from neighboring countries.  The current decline in 
poultry demand is significant as Vietnam approaches 
the lunar new year holiday, where chicken dishes 
traditionally figure prominently in new year 
celebrations.  END COMMENT. 
 
WINNICK