US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI496

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000496 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PREF, PTER, IN, NP, BT, UNHCR, Bhutan 
SUBJECT: BHUTANESE AMBASSADOR: SECURITY SITUATION IN NEPAL 
WILL HINDER REFUGEE REPATRIATION 
 
REF: STATE 9663 
 
Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford, Reason 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The poor security situation in Nepal, 
instability of the government in Kathmandu, and uncertainty 
over future GON willingness to deliver on any inherited 
agreements will hinder the refugee repatriation process, 
Bhutanese Ambassador Lyonpo Dago  Tshering told the 
Ambassador on January 19.  During the meeting, the Ambassador 
passed PRM A/S Dewey's letter to King Wangchuck (reftel) to 
Tshering and reiterated USG interest in helping to restart 
 
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the refugee repatriation process.  Tshering related that his 
government had heard rumors of an upcoming military offensive 
by Nepalese forces against the Maoists.  The draft 
constitution is now being reviewed by the Cabinet and the 
King plans to "take the document to the people" in February. 
End Summary. 
 
Security and Stability 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Ambassador Tshering reiterated that the RGOB is not 
willing to restart the work of the Joint Verification Teams 
(JVT) under the current security situation in Nepal.  He 
added that if another attack on refugee verification workers 
occurred similar to the December 22, 2003 incident, there 
would be "enormous problems back home."  He also expressed 
reservations about the current political developments in 
Nepal, questioning whether advancing the repatriation process 
at this time would not cause additional problems.  "We want 
to be part of the solution, but not part of the Nepalese 
problem," he said, implying that resettling the Category 1 
refugees at this time might be destabilizing in Nepal.  He 
had little confidence in the current Nepalese government's 
ability to remain in power, and noted that the other six 
opposition factions have already stated they would not abide 
by agreements made by the Deuba administration. 
 
Letter Diplomacy 
---------------- 
 
3.  (C) The Ambassador then delivered A/S Dewey's letter 
(reftel) stressing USG interest in creating momentum in the 
repatriation process.  The Ambassador highlighted the message 
that spelling out King Wangchuck's plan clearly to the GON 
could only be positive, and that a unilateral initiative to 
repatriate Category 1 refugees immediately could break the 
ice and get the process moving.  Ambassador Tshering pledged 
RGOB support to the repatriation process, adding that Thimphu 
is open to such a repatriation, but that a dialogue with the 
GON needs to begin and that Kathmandu should draft the next 
letter. 
 
4.  (C) Tshering described how he had engaged with his 
Nepalese counterpart shortly after the Dewey/Wangchuck plan 
was announced in October, but the Nepalese Ambassador told 
him he did not have a mandate to discuss the issue.  In 
response to the Ambassador's question as to whether there had 
been any subsequent contact, and Tshering answered that the 
only engagement between the two governments was the initial 
exchange of letters.  He complained that the letter from the 
GON focused solely on restarting the JVT process and not on 
the repatriation of Category 1 refugees. 
 
Maoists 
------- 
 
5.  (C) Tshering postulated that if the security situation in 
Nepal improved, the JVT process would quickly be back on 
track.  However, when questioned whether that was likely, he 
quickly said no, adding that he had heard rumors of an 
upcoming military offensive by the GON against the Maoists 
and asked if the USG had heard anything about it.  (Comment: 
Embassy has no information about such military action.  End 
Comment) 
 
Constitution 
------------ 
6.  (SBU) Tshering concluded the meeting by announcing that 
the draft constitution is ready and is currently being 
reviewed by the Cabinet.  The King plans to take the document 
to Bhutan's 20 districts for the people's review in February. 
 No date has been set for its official release or adoption, 
and it will need a second review by the Cabinet following the 
King's "road show" and then a vote in the National Assembly. 
Tshering said that the constitution will not change current 
 
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citizenship laws. 
MULFORD