US embassy cable - 02ABUJA711

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000711 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA -- ZIMBABWE IN THE NEWS 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (b) and 
(d). 
 
 
1. (U) To the apparent chagrin of President Obasanjo, news of 
the President's late January discussions with President 
Mugabe in Harare has leaked.  ThisDay February 26 reported 
Presidential Special Assistant Tunji Oseni refuting rumors 
that Obasanjo offered asylum to Mugabe. In his statement, 
Oseni claimed that rumors of the offer and of Nigeria 
positioning a helicopter in Harare to afford Mugabe a quick 
exit should he lose the election were "baseless and untrue." 
Oseni reportedly said the two Heads of State never discussed 
the possibility of Mugabe's departure. 
 
 
2. (C) Oseni's public disclaimer, however, does not jibe 
exactly with what NSA Aliyu Mohammed told us privately. 
During a February conversation with Ambassador Jeter 
(septel), Mohammed stated that Obasanjo recommended to Mugabe 
that he retire and not seek reelection. However, Mugabe said 
he was committed to running and could not back down. The 
Zimbabwean reportedly hinted that he might consider 
retirement after winning the election. ( Mugabe's last 
statement strikes us probably as unlikely as it is illogical.) 
 
 
3. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Nigerian Labour Congress and the 
Ghanaian Trade Union Congress, after a conference in Abuja, 
issued a communique condemning electoral restrictions in 
Zimbabwe. The communique described recent Government of 
Zimbabwe measures as restrictive, repressive and calculated 
to perpetuate Mugabe's tenure in office.  NLC castigation of 
Mugabe is a noteworthy sign that the NLC leadership believes 
its commitment to democracy should outweigh other 
considerations that, in the past, often kept organized labor 
from echoing Western criticism of many African leaders' 
undemocratic practices. The NLC also might have a more 
parochial reason for the statement.  It probably wanted to 
send a signal to domestic politicians that organized labor 
also will not endorse electoral skullduggery at home in 2003. 
 
 
 
 
4. (C) Comment: Based on what Mohammed told us, Oseni's press 
denial is not completely accurate. Because of Obasanjo's 
involvement in Zimbabwe and his personal approach to 
resolving crisis, it would not come as a shock if Obasanjo 
offered asylum to Mugabe. (Nigeria has certainly harbored 
deposed leaders before.) However, before broaching retirement 
with Mugabe, Obasanjo would have given the issue some 
thought. He would have had in mind that Mugabe would need a 
place to retire to and that place would have to accept Mugabe 
while being acceptable to him. In Obasanjo's mind, Nigeria 
would be just as good if not a better option than any other 
country. 
Jeter