US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI492

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PK, IN, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: INDIA DOWNPLAYS LOC CEASEFIRE VIOLATION 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) New Delhi has publicly downplayed the January 18 
evening incident of artillery fire at the LOC, the first such 
case since guns fell silent in November 2003, and has 
assigned its Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) 
to discuss the incident with his Pakistani counterpart via a 
regularly scheduled weekly hotline call.  Immediately 
following the incident, a 16th Corps spokesman in J&K gave 
Pakistan the benefit of the doubt, telling the press "we will 
not like to accuse the Pakistan Army, as we have to 
investigate first whether militants have fired from across 
the LOC."  The message from Delhi was similar, with an Army 
spokesman emphasizing on January 18 that India was 
"exercising full restraint." 
 
2.  (C) Media have reported that the two DGMOs spoke on the 
morning of January 19.  Relating the content of that 
conversation, Vice Chief of the Army Staff LtG Bhupinder 
Thakur said Pakistan did not know who had fired the 
artillery, and had agreed to investigate the incident.  Again 
not excluding the possibility that militants may have been 
source of the firing, Thakur said that 82mm shells were 
"available with terrorists," adding that "we will take it on 
a case-by-case basis."  The incident, allegedly involving 
about 15 mortar shells fired into the Poonch area in three 
salvos of 60mm and 82mm shells during a two hour period in 
the evening of January 17, reportedly wounded one local girl. 
 The MEA had no immediate reaction. 
 
3.  (C) The incident, which Indian sources attribute to the 
Pakistani military, has sparked speculation as to its 
rationale, given that Indo-Pak relations were otherwise 
normalizing, and the 2003 ceasefire was one of the most 
significant bilateral achievements since former PM Vajpayee's 
"Hand of Friendship" speech in April 2003. 
 
--Some Army sources reportedly linked the incident to a 
failed attempt on January 17 in which the Indian army killed 
five infiltrators.  According to this theory, Islamabad was 
seeking to prevent Indian from recovering the bodies and 
finding out more about their origin and activities. 
 
--Another more bizarre theory suggests that it was an 
expression of disapproval by Pakistan over the lack of 
progress in the Baglihar dispute. 
 
--The most unsual hypothesis came from Srinagar, where some 
journalists speculated that India might be behind the 
incident, in order to divert attention from the Baglihar 
case, after Pakistan on January reportedly formally 
approached the World Bank for mediation.  A well-informed 
Jammu-based Indian correspondent saw a connection between the 
incident, the abrupt cancellation of a 400-man unit that was 
supposed to have been de-inducted (withdrawn) from J&K, and 
the recent failed infiltration attempt, calling the case 
"Indian mischief." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4.  (C) The GOI has dealt with this incident as it has 
following the few minor LOC ceasefire incidents since 
November 2003 -- by downplaying them publicly, clarifying 
them with Pakistan at the military level via established 
channels, and then closing the chapter.  We are also 
heartened that there has been virtually no public echo in the 
political arena, including from the opposition BJP which in 
an earlier phase of Indo-Pak relations would have made much 
of this occasion for anti-Pakistan rhetoric.  Aside from 
criticism of the government's handling of the Composite 
Dialogue, the BJP has been silent, yet another indication 
that the Indian political class is prepared to subordinate 
blips like this to the larger interest in reconstructing 
India's ties with Pakistan. 
MULFORD