US embassy cable - 05PARIS339

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000339 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ PRESIDENT BUSH'S SECOND 
TERM 
PARIS - WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 19, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. IRAQ 
2. PRESIDENT BUSH'S SECOND TERM 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
ALTHOUGH THE STRIKES AFFECTING THE NATION THIS WEEK (TRAINS, 
POSTAL SERVICE, TEACHERS AND GOVERNMENT WORKERS) ARE A MAJOR 
EDITORIAL STORY, FRONT PAGES ARE DEVOTED TO A VARIETY OF 
ISSUES, INCLUDING CONDOLEEZZA RICE'S SENATE HEARINGS. LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LIBERATION TITLES ITS REPORT "AMERICAN DIPLOMACY ADOPTS 
A DIFFERENT TONE." RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO HEADLINES "THE 
U.S. TURNING TO DIPLOMACY" AND QUOTES EXTENSIVELY FROM THE 
HEARINGS. IN HIS REPORT WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT PHILIPPE 
GELIE COMMENTS: "ABOUT IRAQ, WHERE VIOLENCE IS ON THE RISE, 
CONDOLEEZZA RICE REGRETS NOTHING. STILL SHE IS DETERMINED TO 
LOOK TO THE FUTURE, A FUTURE WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKE WHAT EUROPE 
AND OTHERS ARE HOPING FOR: `I WILL TRY TO RE-ENFORCE ALLIANCES 
AND GIVE OUR SUPPORT TO OUR FRIENDS.'" GELIE DESCRIBES THE NEW 
BUSH-RICE TEAM AS A "TRUE POLITICAL COUPLE." "THIS POLITICAL 
AND PERSONAL PROXIMITY BETWEEN THE TWO IS A GUARANTEE OF 
INCREASING COHESION IN U.S. DIPLOMACY, AND POSSIBLY A LOSS OF 
NUANCE. SHE HAS THE BRAINS AND HE HAS THE GUTS." 
 
COLUMNIST ALEXANDRE ADLER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO 
DESCRIBES THE OPTIONS AWAITING PRESIDENT BUSH DURING HIS NEXT 
TERM. (SEE PART C) 
 
IRAQ AND THE COMING ELECTIONS ARE THE SUBJECT OF AN ANALYSIS 
BY RENAUD GIRARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO, TITLED "IRAQ: 
ON THE ROAD TO TOTAL WAR," WHILE IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX 
EDITORIALIST BRUNO FRAPPAT WRITES ABOUT "CHAOS AND DEMOCRACY." 
(SEE PART C) 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES ITS LEAD TO THE CONTINUING 
MYSTERY SURROUNDING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THEIR JOURNALIST IN 
IRAQ. 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE CARRIES A FULL-PAGE PORTRAIT OF 
ALBERTO GONZALES, TITLED "THE TWO FACES OF ALBERTO GONZALES" 
THE "FIRST `LATINO' JUSTICE MINISTER WHO IS LOYAL TO BUSH AND 
OIL INTERESTS." ERIC LESER'S PORTRAYAL INCLUDES GONZALES'S 
HUMBLE BEGINNINGS, HIS YEARS AS WHITE HOUSE LEGAL ADVISER 
"WHICH REPRESENT NOT ONLY A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE ERRORS BUT 
ALSO A LOOK INTO THIS MAN'S SHADY MORALITY" AND HIS ROLE IN 
THE LEGISLATION GOVERNING GUANTANAMO DETAINEES." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ 
 
"IN IRAQ, ON THE ROAD TO TOTAL WAR" 
RENAUD GIRARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/19): "IRAQ HAS 
BEEN THROWN INTO A SITUATION WHICH IS MORE SERIOUS THAN JUST 
ANARCHY. THE AMERICANS AND THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT ARE FACING 
AN ARMED INSURRECTION WHICH IS SLOWLY TURNING TO TOTAL WAR. IN 
THIS ASYMMETRICAL WAR, THE TRADITIONAL QUALITIES OF THE U.S. 
ARMY DO NOT ALLOW IT TO TAKE THE UPPER HAND. IT IS LACKING ALL 
THE ATTRIBUTES OF A CREDIBLE OCCUPATION FORCE: MOTIVATION OF 
THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP AND ITS SOLDIERS, KNOWLEDGE OF THE 
LOCAL LANGUAGE AND CULTURE, EFFECTIVE LOCAL NETWORKS OF 
COLLABORATION AND THE ABILITY TO INFILTRATE ENEMY CELLS. 
AMERICAN FORCES ARE UP AGAINST EXTREMELY MOTIVATED GUERRILLA 
FIGHTERS READY TO DIE FOR A SACRED CAUSE. BECAUSE MANY ARE 
FORMER SOLDIERS WHO WERE REJECTED WHEN SADDAM'S ARMY WAS 
DISSOLVED, THEIR AMBUSHES ARE RELATIVELY SOPHISTICATED. THESE 
RESISTANCE FIGHTERS KNOW THEIR ENVIRONMENT. AND EVEN IF THEY 
ARE NOT WELL COORDINATED, THIS LACK OF COORDINATION IS RATHER 
AN ASSET. THEIR GOAL IS NOT SO MUCH TO PUSH THE AMERICANS OUT 
OF IRAQ, AN UNATTAINABLE GOAL. THEY WANT TO UNDERMINE 
AMERICA'S POLITICAL PLANS FOR IRAQ. AFTER THE MILITARY 
IMPASSE, THE AMERICANS ARE FACING A POLITICAL IMPASSE. THE 
FACT THAT THE SHIITE MINORITY IS ABOUT TO TAKE OVER IRAQ'S 
LEADERSHIP IS A TERRIBLE HUMILIATION FOR THE SUNNI COMMUNITY. 
THE MILITARY VICTORY AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS LED TO 
ANARCHY, WHICH IN TURN HAS LED TO TERRORISM, TERRORISM TO 
INSURRECTION, INSURRECTION TO CIVIL WAR: WHEN AND HOW WILL THE 
INFERNAL SPIRAL OF THE AMERICAN EXPEDITION TO IRAQ COME TO AN 
END?" 
 
"CHAOS AND DEMOCRACY" 
BRUNO FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (01/19): "IN IRAQ, DURING 
THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN, CHAOS CONTINUES. IN MARCH WE WILL BE 
CELEBRATING THE TWO-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE INVASION OF IRAQ 
TO TOPPLE SADDAM UNDER THE U.S. BANNER OF BRINGING FREEDOM AND 
DEMOCRACY. TOMORROW, PRESIDENT BUSH WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN HIS 
SECOND TERM IN OFFICE AFTER A BELATED AND DISCREET 
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT THE FAMOUS WMD WHICH ESSENTIALLY SERVED 
TO JUSTIFY THE WAR, DO NOT EXIST. TEN DAYS LATER ELECTIONS IN 
IRAQ WILL TAKE PLACE IN A COUNTRY MORE DIVIDED THAN EVER ABOUT 
THE AMERICAN OCCUPATION, TORN BY ETHNIC HATE AND INHABITED BY 
THE WORST POSSIBLE ISLAMIC FANATICISM. WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS 
IN THE MIDST OF SUCH WASTE? . THE ELECTIONS ARE THE ONLY WAY 
OUT. THERE HAVE NEVER BEEN OPEN, LEGAL AND DEMOCRATIC 
ELECTIONS IN IRAQ. THE ELECTIONS THAT WILL BE HELD ON JANUARY 
30TH WILL TAKE PLACE UNDER THE WORST POSSIBLE CONDITIONS. BUT 
IF THEY DO TAKE PLACE, AND EVEN IF THEY LOOK LIKE A CARICATURE 
OF DEMOCRACY, THEY WILL BE LESS OF A CARICATURE THAN WHAT IRAQ 
HAS EXPERIENCED IN THE PAST. IN IRAQ, THERE REMAINS THAT 
NARROW GAP WHERE A MINIMUM AMOUNT OF LEGITIMACY CAN STILL 
TRICKLE DOWN AFTER SUCH A MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF ILLEGITIMACY." 
 
PRESIDENT BUSH'S SECOND TERM 
 
"PRESIDENT BUSH'S NEW DIRECTION" 
ALEXANDRE ADLER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/19): "FOR HIS 
SECOND TERM. DOMESTIC POLICY ISSUES ARE LIKE SO MANY DAUNTING 
ICEBERGS BLOCKING THE WAY. IN 2000, IN MATTERS OF FOREIGN 
POLICY, PRESIDENT BUSH PROMISED TO RE-ESTABLISH AMERICA'S 
PRESTIGE. IN HIS OWN WAY, HE HAS MANAGED TO DO THIS: AMERICA 
IS NOT VERY POPULAR BUT IT HAS INSTILLED A CERTAIN FEAR IN ITS 
ENEMIES. BUT THERE IS A PRICE TO PAY: AMERICA HAS INCURRED GEO- 
POLITICAL DEBTS, FIRST AND FOREMOST ABOUT IRAQ. THE SHIITE 
VICTORY WAS LONG DESIRED BY TEHERAN. NOW IRAN WILL BE TEMPTED 
TO ASK FOR ITS DUE. IRAN AND SYRIA KNOW THAT AMERICA NO LONGER 
HAS EITHER THE MUSCLE OR THE APPETITE FOR OTHER MILITARY 
CONFRONTATIONS AGAINST THE MUSLIM WORLD OR POLITICAL ONES 
AGAINST THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE 
BETTER RELATIONS WITH EUROPE AND CHINA, THE U.S. MUST, 
PARADOXICALLY, RETURN TO CLINTON'S FUNDAMENTALS ABOUT DOMESTIC 
POLICY: REDUCING THE DEFICIT, AND CONSULTING WITH EUROPE AND 
JAPAN ABOUT CURRENCY DECISIONS." WOLFF