US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE49

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, MI, Malawi Electoral Commission, Political 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY GAINS IN BY-ELECTIONS 
 
 
1.  Official results released by the Malawi Electoral 
Commission (MEC) on Thursday indicate that the eight By- 
Elections held on Tuesday January 12 resulted in a gain 
of six Parliamentary seats for the governing United 
Democratic Front (UDF) and its allies.  The UDF picked 
up two seats, while two Independents likely to align 
with the UDF were also elected. The Republican Party and 
Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) picked up a seat each. 
The opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) managed to 
win the remaining seats. 
 
2.  Despite the government's overall success, President 
Mutharika failed to get his favored candidate elected in 
his home district, where a candidate aligned with UDF 
National Chairman Bakili Muluzi was elected on an 
independent ticket. The UDF also failed to get its 
candidate elected to the seat won in 2004 by Vice 
President Chilumpha (who is unable to hold the position 
concurrently as Vice President), which the Malawi 
Congress Party won. 
 
3.  The MEC Chairwoman, Justice Anastazia Msosa, who 
declared the exercise free and fair, reported voter turn 
out as 33.12%. She attributed this to seasonality, 
noting that people are currently focused on farming. 
However, she said MEC would work to find out why so few 
showed up to vote. The MEC will release a report on the 
by-elections later in the year. 
 
4.   COMMENT.  The results of this election are a major 
gain for the UDF as a party, but it is unclear what 
impact they will have on governance.  In light of the 
ever-widening rift between party and government, 
increased UDF representation could, depending on which 
side the new Parliamentarians ally themselves, mean 
increased support for the president and his initiatives. 
Conversely, it could bring the Muluzi-Mutharika power 
struggle to the floor of Parliament.  END COMMENT. 
 
GILMOUR