US embassy cable - 02HARARE574

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000574 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D   C O P Y - ADDED CLASSIFICATION REASON 
 
FOR AF/FO: A/S KANSTEINER AND AF/S 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO ELECTIONS 
 
REF: HARARE 416 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JOSEPH SULLIVAN FOR REASON 1.5 (D) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00574  070037Z 
 
1.(C) THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAVE BRED INCREASED 
UNCERTAINTY AMONG MOST OBSERVERS REGARDING THE LIKELY 
ELECTION OUTCOME.  THE ONLY CREDIBLE PUBLISHED POLL BY 
THE MASS PUBLIC OPINION POLL FROM A JANUARY STRATIFIED 
SAMPLE SURVEY SHOWED MDC WITH A TWO TO ONE MARGIN AMONG 
VOTERS EXPRESSING A PREFERENCE, WITH ALMOST 60 PER CENT 
DECLINING TO REVEAL THEIR INTENTIONS.  WE UNDERSTAND 
THAT A PRIVATE GOVERNMENT POLL ALSO SHOWED PRESIDENT 
MUGABE TRAILING BY A NARROWER MARGIN OF THE LOW 50 PER 
CENT TO HIGH 40 PER CENT RANGE. 
 
2.(C) NOTWITHSTANDING THE ABOVE, ZANU-PF INSIDERS ARE 
PRIVATELY EXPRESSING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN RECENT WEEKS 
OVER THE LIKELY ELECTION OUTCOME AND THEIR PROSPECTS OF 
MAINTAINING POWER.  PART OF THIS CONFIDENCE COMES FROM 
WHAT THEY FEEL HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL MOBILIZATION OF THEIR 
RURAL VOTER BASE AND SUBSTANTIAL INTIMIDATION OF 
POTENTIAL MDC VOTERS IN RURAL AREAS AND OTHER AREAS 
WHERE MDC SUPPORT IS NOT OVERWHELMING.  THERE ARE ALSO 
CREDIBLE REPORTS OF VOTE MANIPULATION, PARTICULARLY WITH 
MILITARY BALLOTS, LAST-MINUTE ADDITIONS TO THE VOTER 
ROLLS ONLY IN AREAS OF ZANU-PF STRENGTH AND IN THE MOST 
RURAL VOTING PRECINCTS AND WITH MOBILE POLLING STATIONS. 
IN ADDITION, THE MDC HAS BEEN FRUSTRATED IN ITS CAMPAIGN 
BY POLICE OR ZANU-PF MOB PREVENTION OF SCORES OF 
OPPOSITION RALLIES.  MOREOVER, EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO 
HOLD DOWN THE TURNOUT IN AREAS OF MDC STRENGTH -- URBAN 
AREAS AND MATABELELAND THROUGH DELAY IN ANNOUNCEMENT OF 
POLLING PLACES AND REDUCTION OF POLLING STATIONS IN 
URBAN AREAS.  ITS MUCH HYPED UNVEILING OF THE ALLEGED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00574  070037Z 
ASSASSINATION PLOT BY MDC CANDIDATE TSVANGIRAI ALSO 
PLEASES ZANU-PF.  WHILE WE DOUBT THAT THE CONSPIRACY 
ACCOUNT HAS CHANGED MANY VOTES, IT HAS RAISED  FEARS 
AMONG SOME MDC SUPPORTERS THAT, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, 
TSVANGIRAI WILL NEVER BE ALLOWED TO COME TO POWER, 
 
SIPDIS 
THEREBY DISCOURAGING MDC SUPPORTERS FROM VOTING. 
 
3. (C) AS REPORTED IN REFTEL, MDC'S CHANCES IMPROVE, 
DEPENDING ON THE SIZE OF THE TURNOUT.  GIVEN THE EXTENT 
OF ZANU-PF VOTE MANIPULATION, LIMITATIONS IMPOSED ON 
OPPOSITION CAMPAIGNING AND USE OF THE STATE RADIO AND 
TELEVISION, AND CONTINUING TARGETED  INTIMIDATION AND 
VIOLENCE, A VERY HIGH VOTER TURNOUT IS EVEN MORE 
IMPORTANT FOR THE OPPOSITION TO OVERCOME THE ABOVE 
HANDICAPS.  FOR THE MDC TO PREVAIL, IT COULD TAKE 80 PER 
CENT OR MORE TURNOUT, A PARTICIPATION RATE THAT WAS 
ANTICIPATED IN THE JANUARY OPINION POLL, BUT WHICH COULD 
DIMINISH DUE TO OBSTACLES PLACED IN THE WAY OF 
PARTICIPATION IN MDC AREAS OF STRENGTH.  EVEN WITH A 
VERY HIGH TURNOUT, AN MDC MARGIN OF VICTORY WOULD LIKELY 
BE FAIRLY NARROW, GIVEN THE COUNTERVAILING FACTORS AT 
PLAY.  ALTERNATIVELY WITH A LOWER TURNOUT, ZANU-PF COULD 
WELL PREVAIL DUE TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF ITS 
STRENGTH IN RURAL AREAS, INTIMIDATION OF OPPOSITION 
ACTIVITY AND VOTE MANIPULATION.  WE DO NOT THINK IT 
LIKELY THAT ZANU-PF CAN WIN BY A LARGE MARGIN.  THERE IS 
SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE OPPOSITION AND ARE SUFFICIENT 
CHECKS IN THE VOTING AND COUNTING SYSTEM TO PREVENT 
WHOLESALE MANIPULATION OF THE COUNT. 
 
4. (C) ANOTHER REASON FOR GREATER ZANU-PF CONFIDENCE IS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00574  070037Z 
INCREASED PLANNING FOR HOW THEY CAN PREVENT TSVANGIRAI 
FROM TAKING OFFICE, EVEN IF HE SHOULD WIN THE VOTE. 
MANIPULATION OF THE ALLEGED ASSASSINATION PLOT INTO A 
FORMAL CHARGE OF TREASON IS ONE OBVIOUS ROUTE, BUT WE 
KNOW THEY ARE THINKING OF OTHER MEANS AS WELL TO SUBVERT 
A NEGATIVE RESULT.  WHETHER THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO 
EXECUTE SUCH PLANS WOULD DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS, 
INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO THE RESULTS AND THE 
WILLINGNESS OF THE ARMED FORCES TO SUPPORT ACTION TO 
SUBVERT AN ELECTION RESULT IN FAVOR OF THE MDC. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>