US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI305

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 000305 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2015 
TAGS: IZ, KDEM, PREL, TC 
SUBJECT: DISAPPOINTING FIRST DAY'S TURNOUT IN UAE'S IRAQI 
OCV REGISTRATION 
 
REF: A) ABU DHABI 35 B) 04 ABU DHABI 4714 
 
1. (C) Summary: The first day of Iraqi out-of-county voting 
registration (OCV) ended on a low note, with only about 1,000 
people showing up at registration tents in Abu Dhabi and 
Dubai on January 17, according to an IOM staffer in Dubai. 
Registration will continue through January 23, with polls 
open from 8 am to 5 pm daily.  The Iraqi Embassy remains 
optimistic that registration will increase significantly over 
the Eid al Adha holiday. End summary. 
 
2. (C) An MOU authorizing an OCV program in the UAE on 
January 2 established voting centers in Abu Dhabi and Dubai 
(ref.A).  The UAE is the only location in the Gulf where 
out-of-country voting will take place.  The centers are 
staffed by international, Iraqi, and local officials and are 
operating without UAEG interference.  However, the UAEG is 
providing security protection to deter any incidents at the 
centers by election opponents.  Despite this, one of the 
IOM,s OCV coordinators in Dubai, Filippa Neave (strictly 
protect), reported that only about 1,000 Iraqis presented 
themselves at the two centers on the first day of 
registration.  This is a disappointingly low number, she 
said, considering that the IOM estimates that approximately 
100,000 Iraqis live in or near the UAE.  Of that number, the 
IOM estimates that roughly half may be eligible to vote, and 
approximately 20-40 percent of that number (10,000-20,000) 
are expected to register.  Neave blamed poor publicity 
leading up to the event as part of the reason why so few 
people showed.  She also said that holding registrations over 
the Eid holiday was poorly planned, and would likely result 
in an overall low turnout. 
 
3. (SBU) An Iraqi Embassy contact was more optimistic about 
the registration turnout.  First Secretary Sabah Al Wali said 
registration events were going &fine8 when he visited the 
Abu Dhabi registration center on January 17.  Admitting that 
turnout was somewhat low, however, he opined that this was 
due to the fact that it was a workday and people were not 
able to leave work and go to the center to register.  Al Wali 
predicted that many Iraqis would register over the Eid 
holiday, since they would not want to pass up the opportunity 
to choose their next government and improve their lives.  He 
did say, however, that he did not expect many Iraqis to 
travel to the UAE from other Gulf countries to register and 
vote.  This was due, he said, to financial constraints and 
difficulty getting visas. (Note: On December 29, MFA 
Assistant U/S for Political Affairs assured PolChief that the 
UAEG would provide every potential voter with whatever 
assistance necessary, including the issuance of visas.  End 
note.)  Al Wali said he was impressed with the security 
provided by the UAEG, and felt certain that there would be no 
incidents. 
 
4. (U) The local media quoted Iraqi expatriates in the UAE 
who rejected the claim that only Iraqi Shi,as were 
enthusiastic about the election.  One person at the Dubai 
registration center told Khaleej Times newspaper that any 
Iraqi Sunni Muslim who shunned the January 30 ballot in Iraq 
would be doing so only because of fear of the anti-U.S. 
insurgents responsible for the ongoing violence in Iraq. 
Another Iraqi at the center, a female doctor who is a 
resident of Canada, refused to state to the reporter whether 
she was Shi,a or Sunni, saying that she was a Muslim and an 
Iraqi, and registering to vote was the chance of a lifetime. 
The doctor said she extended her visit to the UAE until the 
end of the month in order to be able to vote. 
 
5. (SBU) We will provide another OCV update next week. 
 
6. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
SISON