US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI188

UNCLAS MUMBAI 000188 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, IN, Human Rights, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: BANERJEE STATES GODHRA FIRE MAY HAVE BEEN ACCIDENT - BJP 
DISAGREE 
 
REF: 2004 MUMBAI 2344 
 
 
1. (U) Justice U.C. Banerjee released an interim report in New 
Delhi on January 17, 2005, which claimed that the February 27, 
2002 fire in car S-6 of the Sabarmati Express just outside 
Godhra might have erupted "in the coach itself without any 
external input."  Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav of 
the RJD in Bihar formed the Banerjee committee (a one-man 
committee comprised solely of Banerjee himself) in September 
2004 to discover the cause of the Godhra incident.  The fire 
burnt to death fifty-nine Hindu pilgrims and sparked-off 
Hindu-Muslim violence in Gujarat from March to May 2002, killing 
an estimated 1,000 to 2,000 people, a majority of them Muslims. 
 
 
BJP Doesn't Agree with Justice Banerjee 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) BJP Chief Minister Narendra Modi of Gujarat has always 
claimed that Muslim "miscreants" from the town of Godhra set the 
fire. National BJP leaders criticized the timing of the report's 
release, with National BJP spokesperson Arun Jaitley saying it 
was clearly aimed at garnering Muslim votes in the upcoming 
February 2005 state legislature election. 
 
Accident or Conspiracy? 
----------------------- 
 
3. (U) Depending upon their political persuasion, Indian 
interlocutors have always advocated various theories about the 
cause of the fire.  According to the RSS and its various partner 
organizations, it was a deliberate conspiracy by Muslims.  Human 
rights activists have claimed that the fire could not have been 
set from outside, and that the car was locked from inside 
(preventing any Muslims from entering the car and starting the 
fire).  As the Times of India on January 18, 2005 puts it, "The 
(Banerjee) report, however, does not go so far as to blame the 
kar sevaks (pilgrims) and others for starting the fire 
deliberately in order to achieve the communal divide."  The 
Banerjee report has suggested the possibility that the kar 
sevaks might have been cooking inside the car and that might 
have set off the fire accidentally. 
 
4. (U) The Gujarat police are still working on their own 
investigation of the incident and have stated, via the media, 
that they disagree with the report entirely. Rakesh Asthana, a 
senior Gujarat police official heading the inquiry into the 
train fire, told a media conference a few hours after the 
report's release that police evidence indicates that someone 
collected gasoline in a small hotel in Godhra the night before, 
entered the car while it was in Godhra station, set the fire and 
ran away. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
5. (SBU) The timing of the release of the report is indeed 
significant.  Some observers have stated that Indian Muslims 
voted overwhelmingly anti-BJP and its coalition partners to show 
their displeasure for the 2002 Gujarat violence in the April-May 
2004 national elections, and in the September 2004 Maharashtra 
state elections.  The high-profile Best Bakery case being 
retried in a Mumbai court may now be unraveling because the 
chief witness has recanted (reftel), which may be causing some 
Muslims to have second thoughts about voting for the UPA. 
 
6. (SBU) Railway Minister Yadav is elated by the outcome and is 
taking credit for instituting the report, which he claims 
discredits the former BJP government.  Yadav's RJD government in 
Bihar faces the voters early in February and his opponents are 
scoring points with their accusations of mismanagement and 
corruption.  Bihari  Muslims are a key constituency of Yadav's 
winning caste and communal equation in Bihar, and he can now 
claim to be their champion against the BJP "communalists."   End 
Comment. 
 
SIMMONS