US embassy cable - 05MANILA271

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, INR/B 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KCOR, PREL, ECON, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT ESTRADA RETURNS TO THE 
PHILIPPINES AFTER SURGERY IN HONG KONG 
 
REF: 04 MANILA 5959 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for Reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Former president Joseph "Erap" Estrada 
returned to Manila on January 15 after undergoing knee 
surgery in Hong Kong.  Despite concerns that there could be a 
confrontation between his supporters and authorities, 
Estrada's return was uneventful, with police whisking him off 
via helicopter to a suburb outside of Manila where he is 
being held under house arrest.  His trial on corruption 
charges continued while he was in Hong Kong.  Estrada called 
for opposition unity in comments made upon his return. 
President Arroyo and her administration continue to appear 
highly anxious about the opposition, though there is little 
sign that Estrada and his allies pose a serious threat at 
this point.  End Summary. 
 
------------ 
Erap Returns 
------------ 
 
2.  (U) Former president Joseph Estrada has returned to the 
Philippines after undergoing (apparently successful) knee 
surgery in Hong Kong.  He arrived at Manila's international 
airport mid-day on January 15 (he had departed for Hong Kong 
on December 27 after receiving the approval of the anti-graft 
court in which he is being tried).  Despite reports that a 
huge crowd would turn out, fewer than 1,000 Estrada 
supporters had gathered near the airport to greet the former 
president. 
 
3.  (U) The size of the pro-Estrada crowd was probably 
diminished somewhat by the huge police presence put in place 
in the area of the airport to monitor Erap's arrival. 
According to reports, the Philippine National Police (PNP) 
deployed nearly 2,000 personnel to help prevent any problems. 
 The PNP took many other precautions to deal with 
contingencies.  GRP officials denied Estrada's request to 
hold a press conference after his arrival at the airport for 
"security" reasons.  In addition, PNP Director General Edgar 
Aglipay personally met the former president on the tarmac and 
police then whisked him off via helicopter to a suburb 
outside Manila (Tanay, in nearby Rizal Province) where he is 
being held under house arrest.  There, Estrada was greeted by 
about 500 supporters who held a rally outside of his home. 
There were no incidents at the airport or in Tanay. 
 
--------------- 
Trial Continues 
--------------- 
 
4.  (U) Estrada's trial on corruption charges continued while 
he was in Hong Kong.  The trial began shortly after his April 
2001 arrest and is taking place in the Sandiganbayan, the 
GRP's anti-graft court.  Estrada has been charged with 
plunder, perjury, and document falsification.  After being 
held in prison initially, he has been under house arrest 
since July 2004.  The trial continues to hit severe 
procedural hurdles.  On January 17, for example, the 
presiding justice suspended the case for one week following a 
defense motion that one of the justice's hearing the case be 
recused for alleged anti-Estrada bias.  The defense has 
placed other motions on the table that will almost certainly 
delay the case's progress further. 
 
5.  (C) The Special Prosecutor for the Estrada case, Dennis 
Villa-Ignacio, provided additional details on the trial 
during a January 13 meeting with poloff.  Villa-Ignacaio said 
Estrada's lawyers had presented 18 witnesses so far and more 
were expected.  Villa-Ignacio remarked thatthe case was a 
"must-win" for Ombudsman Simeon Marcelo and the GRP.  He said 
his office was under strict orders to press Estrada's case 
forward in order to reach a verdict by the end of the year. 
To keep to this schedule, he hoped that the defense team 
would conclude its arguments by the second quarter of 2005. 
This would allow for concluding arguments to take place by 
October 2005, followed by 30-60 days for the three justices 
hearing the case to reach a decision.  Given the consistent 
pattern of defense motions, however, Villa-Ignacaio admitted 
that his schedule might be optimistic. 
 
--------------------- 
Opposition Activities 
--------------------- 
6.  (C) Estrada -- following up on comments he had made in 
Hong Kong -- continued to call for opposition unity in 
remarks made upon his return.  Shortly after his arrival in 
Manila, he released a press statement through advisers that 
railed against President Arroyo, asserting, in part, that her 
"corrupt administration...remains suspect in the eyes of a 
great majority of our people."  After 19 days of relative 
freedom in Hong Kong -- meeting with members of his former 
cabinet, other opposition leaders, conducting frequent press 
interviews, etc. -- Estrada seemed upbeat and promised to 
coordinate the opposition's efforts, saying, "I am not 
interested in leading them; what is important to me is to 
unite them." 
 
7.  (C) Pro-Estrada elements appeared buoyed by Estrada's 
seeming political reemergence after the December death of 
presidential runner-up and former actor Fernando Poe Jr. (see 
Reftel).  House Minority leader Francis Escudero announced to 
the press on January 16 that Estrada loyalists planned to 
form a "Committee of Five" that would "represent the 
collective leadership of the opposition."  The committee 
would include Escudero, Estrada, former Agrarian Reform 
Secretary Horacio "Boy" Morales, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 
 
SIPDIS 
and former Senator Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, who recently 
took over as head of the RAM grouping again.  (Note:  RAM, 
"Reform the Armed Forces Movement," is a group of retired PNP 
officers, which was behind several coup attempts in the late 
1980s.  RAM claims to support reform in the GRP's security 
forces.)  When queried about opposition activities, Ramon 
"Eki" Cardenas, a close adviser to Estrada, told Dep Polcouns 
on January 14 that Estrada had met with 2004 presidential 
candidates Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and Brother Eddie 
Villanueva while in Hong Kong.  Cardenas said the meetings 
had gone well.  Edgardo Angara, an important opposition 
senator, remained out of the talks, however.  Cardenas added 
that Estrada hoped to increase the pace of opposition 
activities (rallies, demonstrations, etc.) in coming months. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) President Arroyo and her administration continue to 
be highly anxious about the opposition.  The funeral of 
Fernando Poe Jr. on December 22 deeply concerned the 
administration, for example, and Malacanang battened down the 
hatches that day.  Similarly, the administration wanted to 
ensure that Estrada's return went smoothly and it deployed 
the police in large numbers to prevent any incidents.  That 
said, despite their best efforts and a recent uptick in their 
confidence level, there is little sign that Estrada and the 
rest of the opposition pose a serious threat to the 
administration's stability at this point.  More than anything 
else, Estrada and his allies seem to be baiting the 
administration, hoping that it over-reacts and makes a 
mistake that helps catalyze the opposition's many strands 
into a coherent movement.  The administration has not fallen 
into that trap yet. 
Ricciardone