US embassy cable - 05CALCUTTA18

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CALCUTTA 000018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEW DELHI ALSO FOR DATT -- SBOTO 
STATE FOR SA/INS, PRM AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SOCI, ECON, ENRG, PBTS, PREF, CH, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: ARUNACHAL PRADESH:  ISOLATED TRIBAL STATE 
 
REF: A) 04 CALCUTTA 482;  B) 03 CALCUTTA 291 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: George N. Sibley, Principal Officer, ConGen 
Calcutta, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Geographic isolation, historical misfortune 
and deliberate choice combine to make the northeastern state of 
Arunachal Pradesh India's most isolated and among it least 
developed.  As home to 26 major tribal groups, Arunachal is 
something of an anthropologist's dream, but a political and 
developmental nightmare.  Much of the northern border with China 
remains disputed territory.  This contributed to the 1962 
Sino-Indian war that was waged mainly in Arunachal and ended in 
India's humiliating defeat.  As a result, the state has remained 
"sensitive" from India's security perspective and even Indian 
citizens require special permission to visit it.  This has 
severely hampered development, but the resulting isolation has 
not been entirely unwelcome to its xenophobic tribal 
inhabitants.  In fact, the major source of resentment against 
the Center is not the serious developmental neglect, but rather 
the settlement in Arunachal of Chakma and Hajong refugees of 
Bangladeshi origin in 1964, and their continued presence in the 
state.  Arunachal has significant potential in hydropower, 
forestry and tourism but these are unlikely to be developed 
quickly until a political consensus is reached on the 
fundamental question:  Does the state want tribal cultural 
isolation or economic development?  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Arunachal Pradesh: Geographic Isolation 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2.  (U)  Arunachal Pradesh is the largest state in the northeast 
in terms of area (32,000 square miles) and it borders China, 
Burma and Bhutan as well as the Indian states of Assam and 
Nagaland.  With a little over one million inhabitants, the 
density of population (31 per square mile) is the lowest among 
all Indian states.  More than 80 percent of Arunachal's land 
area is covered with forest and parts of the state remain 
unexplored.  It has limited transport and communication 
infrastructure.  With few highways, helicopter services or 
footpaths are the main transportation lifelines.  The state's 
population is largely tribal, with 26 dominant tribes, each with 
its own language and customs, and literally hundreds of 
sub-groups.  Villages are administered in consultation with the 
nominated village headman and the elected panchayat (local 
self-government) leader.  Several tribes practice Donyi Polo, a 
religion worshipping the sun and the moon, whereas others 
practice animism.  Missionaries have made few inroads here. 
Polygamy is permitted and practiced by some tribal elites.  Two 
of the tribes exist in a master-slave relationship (Ref A). 
According to 2001 census figures, overall literacy (54.3%; male 
-- 64%, female -- 44%) was ten points below the all-India 
average.  The 2002 GOI Economic Survey showed a sex ratio 
heavily biased against women (901 females to 1000 males) and 
infant mortality surprisingly low at 40/1,000.   These figures 
are difficult to explain, as the cultures do not practice gender 
preference or female infanticide, and may simply reflect 
counting errors in this remote and sparsely populated state. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Arunachal Pradesh:  Historical Misfortune 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3.  (C)  China invaded parts of Arunachal Pradesh during the 
1962 conflict and India's border with southern Tibet remains 
disputed.  Arunachal undoubtedly occupies a space in China's 
South Asia strategy.  During the Calcutta Principal Officer's 
(PO) visit in December 2004, a senior minister of the Arunachal 
Pradesh Government recalled how a Chinese government official, a 
few months previously, had told him that he would not require a 
visa to go to Kunming (in China) as he was from Arunachal 
Pradesh.  As the Indian and Chinese governments engage in a 
dialog over the border issue, Arunachal Pradesh's strategic 
importance has increased.  According to media reports, the 
Tawang District in north Arunachal Pradesh bordering Tibet is 
being contemplated for a swap with China in exchange for Aksai 
Chin in the Ladakh region.  In the last week of November 2004, 
then Indian National Security Advisor J.N. Dixit went to 
Beijing, and at the same time Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam 
Saran went to Arunachal.  Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister 
Gegong Apang told the PO that Saran did not discuss the GOI's 
deliberations with China during the visit.  He expressed 
dissatisfaction over this, saying that no resolution of the 
border issue, including territorial exchange, would be possible 
without taking the people of Arunachal Pradesh into confidence. 
Apang subsequently conveyed the same message to the GOI by 
leaking his own comments in this portion of the meeting to the 
local media.  Nonetheless, Apang expressed strong interest in 
developing border trade with China.  (Note:  Given these 
negotiations, perhaps it is no coincidence that Arunachal 
Pradesh's new Governor, S.K. Singh, sworn in on December 16, 
2004, is a former Foreign Secretary of India.) 
 
4.  (C)  Lack of development combined with isolation from the 
Indian "mainland" have led some in Arunachal's intelligentsia to 
develop a "pro-China" slant.  During an informal interaction, 
several student leaders and human rights activists candidly 
admitted their pro-Chinese tilt to the PO, even saying that 
living with China would be better than living with India. 
Arunachal, like other parts of northeast India, is ethnically 
and culturally more akin to their Tibetan and South East Asian 
cousins than to the majority of Indian citizens, but these 
statements appeared more a product of frustration than of any 
careful assessment of what costs any serious effort at secession 
would entail. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
Arunachal Pradesh:  Isolation as a Deliberate Choice 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  Arunachal Pradesh's indigenous communities are 
"protected" through the system of Inner Line Permits devised by 
the British.  No "outsider" can enter Arunachal Pradesh without 
an Inner Line (IL) or a Protected Area Permit (PAP).  Neither 
can they buy land, start a business or take up employment. 
While accompanying the PO in December 2004, Calcutta's Economic 
FSN, an Indian citizen, was even enjoined from "taking 
photographs" in Arunachal on the IL permit issued to him.  The 
people of Arunachal, its political leaders, government officials 
and civil society representatives are unanimous about retaining 
the Inner Line system.  They are convinced that by keeping 
outsiders away, the Inner Line is protecting the life and 
culture of the indigenous people.  The Chief Minister explained 
that without the Inner Line restrictions, the tribes would lose 
their land to people from mainland India.  Although Hindi is the 
state's official language, and "Jai Hind" is a common greeting, 
the passion to retain the Inner Line is an expression of the 
underlying resistance to integrate with the Indian mainstream 
that has a separate ethnic, cultural and linguistic identity. 
When PO suggested that these restrictions inhibit investment and 
tourism -- including from the U.S. -- virtually all of his 
interlocutors appeared willing to pay this price to preserve the 
state's tribal identity. 
 
6.  (C)  Arunachal's long-standing feud with the Chakma-Hajong 
refugees highlight this desire for preservation of indigenous 
rights in its extreme form.  The Chakmas and the Hajongs are 
tribes evicted from Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts.  In 
1964, about two thousand families were resettled in refugee 
enclaves in Arunachal's Tirap Division, presumably because the 
GOI believed that Arunachal, as the least densely populated 
state in India, could most easily accommodate them.  Since then, 
the Chakma and the Hajongs have grown in numbers whose reliable 
estimates are either not available or not disclosed. 
Representatives of indigenous people's organizations have their 
own estimates -- which to us do not appear credible -- that 
predict that Chakma-Hajongs will outnumber Arunachal tribes in 
the not too distant future.  Such portents are discussed and 
debated at group meetings, reinforcing the tension and the 
animosity against Chakmas and other "outsiders".   In a meeting 
with the PO a leader of the largest student group in Arunachal 
went so far as to suggest that his organization might lead 
efforts to violently drive out the Chakmas in future if the GOI 
did not take action to resettle them elsewhere.  Indeed, on 
December 10, 2004, the National Liberation Front of Arunachal 
(NLFA) - a tribal militant outfit - directed Arunachal's 
Chakma-Hajong refugees to leave the state in two months.  The 
directive came after a Singpho tribal leader was abducted and 
killed in late November, allegedly by the Chakmas. 
7. (U)  In contrast, there is much less animosity against the 
Tibetan refugee enclaves.  This is partly because their numbers 
are fewer and partly because they have significant ethnic and 
religious affinity with some of the Arunachalese.  For example, 
the largest Tibetan Buddhist monastery outside of Tibet is at 
Tawang in Arunachal.  In any case, as part of its public 
relation exercise, the state government organizes conducted 
tours of Tibetan refugee camps. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
Arunachal Pradesh:  The Development Conundrum 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
8.  (SBU)  As it comes in contact with the outside world, 
Arunachal tribal society is showing signs of confusion.  In a 
smoky Mishmi longhouse, middle-aged tribal women with enormous 
plugs in their earlobes stared at the PO as he squatted by the 
fire and sipped rice beer under racks of charred wild cattle 
skulls.  Asked through an interpreter what they found so 
interesting, they replied that they had seen "white" people on 
the cable television in their longhouse but that they had not 
believed, until just then, that such people existed in real 
life.  As awareness of material comforts grows, societal leaders 
will have to decide how to reconcile the appetite for material 
development with the tribal way of life.  Elsewhere these 
transitions have sometimes led to severe dislocation or even the 
extinction of tribal culture.  As a result, most students' 
bodies and other civil society organizations -- representing 
tribal pressure groups -are vehemently opposed to developments 
such as the large hydroelectric power projects that the 
Government of India is proposing and, in some cases, has started 
building.  The arguments against these projects are familiar -- 
destruction of fragile biodiversity, displacement/submergence of 
tribal villages and the resulting socio-economic disruptions, or 
seismic hazards. While some of these concerns are genuine 
(especially the seismic concerns), one suspects many are being 
driven by simple xenophobia.  Ironically, the groups making 
these arguments live in modern homes in the capital, wear 
Western clothes for the most part, and often have a Western 
education.  But they are trying to preserve "their" way of life 
back in the villages.  Hence the confusion:  They say the people 
of Arunachal are not averse to shopping malls, but they will not 
let the owner of the shop be from Calcutta, Mumbai or New Delhi. 
 They say they want factories and projects, but will not ease IL 
or PAP restrictions to enable the engineers and executives to 
travel to the state at short notice. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Arunachal Pradesh:  State Politics 
----------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C)  For 20 of the last 24 years, Apang has been Chief 
Minister of Arunachal Pradesh.  A member of the Adi tribe, he 
has been able to rally support across the state, usually under 
the banner of the Congress Party.  However, it is clear that his 
political weathervane is driven solely and exclusively by his 
calculation of what party in New Delhi can provide the most 
benefits to his state.  This explains his sudden conversion to 
the BJP in August 2003 (Ref B) and it also explains his return 
to the Congress fold under the current Congress-led coalition. 
The voters of the state appear to be similarly motivated, 
electing -- for the first time -- nine BJP Members of 
Legislative Assembly (out of 60 total) in the 2004 elections 
when the BJP was seen as frontrunners to return to power at the 
Center. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Arunachal Pradesh: Economic Resources 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
10.  (U)  Arunachal has three primary areas of economic 
potential:  hydropower, forest-based industries, and tourism. 
With nearly 50,000 MW of hydroelectricity potential, Chief 
Minister Gegong Apang envisions his state as the "powerhouse of 
India."  The Indian government, through the North East Electric 
Power Corporation (NEEPCO) and National Hydroelectric Power 
Corporation (NHPC), has identified 68 major power projects.  Of 
these NEEPCO has completed one (Ranaganadi Stage 1) and one is 
under construction (Kameng); NHPC is also building the 2,000 MW 
Subansiri (Lower) with a scheduled completion date of 2010. 
Basic survey and infrastructure development is underway for 
eight other of these projects.  The state government would also 
like to encourage its own medium-size projects, generating 
100-500 MW, and claims it is open to "outside" investment -- 
including U.S.-sourced investment -- through the 
build-operate-transfer route.  The state is trying to overcome 
objections to these projects by holding public hearings where 
villagers participate. 
 
11. (U)  According to the state Forest Department, Arunachal's 
forests generate 30,000 cubic feet per year of Non-Timber Forest 
Produce (cane, bamboo, etc.) that is supplied to the local 
factories.  Nearly 6,000 hectares of forest is replanted every 
year.  Agriculture is carried out primarily through 
low-productivity slash-and-burn (jhum) technique, which, given 
the low density of population, is not currently an environmental 
threat.  Despite its vast tourism potential, the infrastructure 
is limited and the obstacles -- such as the permit system -- 
substantial. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Arunachal Pradesh:  American Interests 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
12. (C)  The U.S. has a significant interest in the peaceful 
resolution of the Sino-Indian border dispute, but this is an 
area where progress is likely to be made in capitals, not in the 
region.  In the future there may be prospects for U.S. equipment 
sales or direct investment in hydropower projects or 
forest-based industries.  When conditions allow, U.S. cultural 
and adventure tourism to Arunachal may expand considerably.  One 
concern was an allegation, directed to the PO by an NGO 
activist, that the U.S. bore indirect responsibility for the 
conditions that generated the Chakma exodus from Bangladesh and 
therefore should assume a central role in assuring their return 
or their relocation and resettlement somewhere other than in 
Arunachal.  The PO expressed sympathy for their plight, but 
disavowed any U.S. responsibility for finding a lasting solution 
to remedy it. 
 
13. (C)  COMMENT:  Arunachal Pradesh may be an anthropologist's 
dream, but it seems a politician and an economist's nightmare. 
Proponents of the state's indigenous people's interests are torn 
between bringing modern education, health and other civic 
amenities to the tribes and keeping them pristine, isolated from 
the world by geography and the regulations of the Inner Line. 
Many claim that the Government of India deliberately did not 
build road infrastructure in the state for fear the Chinese Army 
might use it in an invasion.  In any case, given Arunachal's 
frontline position vis-`-vis China, the GOI does not seem ready 
to press fresh initiatives in the region, with the possible 
exception of some hydropower for export to "mainland" India. 
The net result is that Arunachal Pradesh remains, and is likely 
to continue to remain, isolated from the Indian mainstream. 
END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY