US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV290

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000290 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CODEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2014 
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, IS, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER SHALOM EXPRESSES SKEPTICISM ABOUT 
ABU MAZEN TO CODELS KERRY AND KYL 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
 1. (C) Summary: In separate January 10 meetings with Codels 
Kerry and Kyl, both joined by the Ambassador, Foreign 
Minister Shalom articulated Israel's cautious readiness to 
work with Palestinian President-elect Abu Mazen.  Shalom 
emphasized that Israel will measure Abu Mazen by his 
performance in dismantling terrorist organizations, but he 
was skeptical about Abu Mazen's willingness to do so, citing 
some of Abu Mazen's recent campaign statements as a possible 
indication that he has become less moderate.  In his meeting 
with Codel Kerry, Shalom expressed reservations as well about 
Syria's willingness to make peace, and underlined the 
symbolic importance of democratic elections in Iraq.  During 
his meeting with Codel Kyl, Shalom stressed Israel's grave 
concerns about Iran's nuclear program, and called for 
immediate referral of it to the Security Council.  Shalom 
lauded Israel's strategic relationship with Turkey.  End 
Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Abu Mazen: The Morning After 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom met separately with 
Codels Kerry and Kyl, both joined by the Ambassador, on the 
morning after Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) won the Palestinian 
presidential election.  He expressed cautious optimism about 
the President-elect, emphasizing that Israel is ready to work 
directly with the Palestinians towards achieving peace.  He 
stressed, however, that Abu Mazen must take steps to 
dismantle terrorist organizations and end incitement against 
Israel.  The crucial test for Abu Mazen, he said, will come 
with the first terrorist attack that occurs on Abu Mazen's 
watch.  The nature of the Israeli response, Shalom said, 
"will be one thing" if Abu Mazen appears to be actively 
trying to dismantle terrorist groups, and "quite another" if 
he is not.  Asked whether Abu Mazen has the resources 
necessary to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and fight 
incitement, Shalom responded that Abu Mazen, with 60,000 
people in the PA security services, and Dahlan in Gaza, has 
more than sufficient resources to defeat the terrorists.  The 
question is only whether he is determined to do so. 
Incitement, Shalom continued, could be fought immediately. 
To illustrate the latter point, Shalom mentioned a sermon 
that was broadcast live on Palestinian television January 7 
and filled with "unspeakable" statements about Jews.  Ending 
such incitement, he claimed, would be as easy as flipping a 
switch 
 
3. (C) Asked about a future meeting between Prime Minister 
Ariel Sharon and Abu Mazen, Shalom predicted that such a 
meeting would take place within weeks and stressed the 
importance of good preparation for it.  He claimed that 
Israel has done all it could to date to ensure Abu Mazen's 
success with the Palestinians by facilitating Arafat's 
medical travel and burial, easing Palestinian travel 
restrictions prior to and during elections, and allowing free 
access to polling places.  Abu Mazen, he said, won the 
presidency through a healthy voter turnout of approximately 
70% of registered voters.  Israel will not tolerate any 
excuses from him claiming that the PA is too weak or 
otherwise unable to take necessary steps against terrorism. 
The time for decisive Palestinian action is now. 
 
4.  (C) Senator Kerry expressed concern that the absence of 
clear Israeli expectations for Palestinian security 
performance could set up Abu Mazen to fail.  He asked whether 
Israel would seek to develop benchmarks or a timetable to 
measure Palestinian progress.  Shalom circuitously responded 
that his trepidation regarding Abu Mazen has more to do with 
his recent "unacceptable" statements to the press, which, 
instead of isolating extremists and embracing moderates, 
could have the opposite effect.  Recalling how Arafat's 
zealous speech at the White House signing of the Oslo Accords 
reflected his genuine extremism, Shalom said he could not 
dismiss Abu Mazen's commentary as simply campaign rhetoric. 
Abu Mazen's recent reference to Israel as the "Zionist 
enemy," his promises to continue the Palestinian struggle 
"with all means we have," and to "never abandon the right of 
return," make Shalom more skeptical now about chances for 
peace with the Palestinians than he was immediately following 
Arafat's death.  Still, he does not want Israel to lose the 
glimmer of hope that Arafat's death has presented. 
 
5.  (C) Shalom summarized his feelings towards Abu Mazen by 
emphasizing that now that Abu Mazen has the support of the 
Palestinian people and the greater Arab world, he will be 
expected to live up to implementing Palestinian commitments 
under the roadmap.  Shalom acknowledged that Israel will 
likewise have to live up to its commitments, including 
dismantling illegal outposts.  Shalom said that, as a result 
of Abu Mazen's recent "extreme" statements, he is more 
skeptical about Abu Mazen's potential to succeed, but he 
emphasized that Israel remains prepared to offer the 
Palestinians gestures of cooperation, such as issuing more 
work authorizations. 
 
-------------------- 
Syria and the Region 
-------------------- 
 
6.  (C) In response to Shalom's question about Kerry's 
January 8 trip to Syria, the Senator stated that he believes 
there is potential for Syria's participation in a regional 
peace process.  There are, he said, specific ways in which 
the U.S. could test Syrian intentions by cooperating in the 
realms of intelligence gathering and monitoring of the 
Syria-Iraq border.  These measures could build confidence for 
future discussions between Syria and Israel on a return of 
the Golan Heights, which Kerry qualified as Syria's top 
priority.  Shalom demurred, stating that Lebanon was more 
important to the Syrians than the Golan because of the 
resources located there and revenue from drug trade through 
the Bekaa Valley.  Syria's apparent peace overtures, Shalom 
continued, are a response to Washington's threats to impose 
sanctions.  While he acknowledged that moderate statements by 
Arab leaders should not be taken for granted, Shalom said he 
also believes that Syria can more easily talk about peace 
than take action against Islamic Jihad and Hamas, who still 
direct Palestinian terrorism from Damascus. 
 
7.  (C) Kerry posited that Assad would become more active 
against terrorist groups if given the assurance that he would 
get something in return.  For example, Assad is already 
prepared to shut down the border with Iraq and is willing to 
conduct joint intelligence operations.  Shalom responded that 
Assad could start to demonstrate his willingness to work with 
Israel by giving back the body of Israeli spy Eli Cohen, whom 
Syria executed in 1965.  Kerry agreed that the SARG should 
return the body, but noted a general sense of waiting that he 
sees in the region.  Arab leaders, he said, are growing 
uneasy with their inability to get a feel for how Israel and 
the Palestinians will return to the roadmap, while Iraq 
remains delicate and unstable.  This waiting, he said, 
creates an opportunity for Israel to take steps toward peace 
now. 
 
----- 
Iraq 
----- 
 
8.  (C) Shalom was optimistic about the future of Iraq and 
said that once democratic elections occur, citizens of other 
Arab countries will be encouraged to demand the right to vote 
from their governments.  Israel looks forward to having 
another democratic nation in the region, and would be in 
favor of relations with the new Iraqi leadership.  As for the 
violence throughout the country, Shalom said that Iraq is a 
big country and the violence portrayed by the media does not 
necessarily affect the lives of all Iraqis and all 
reconstruction efforts. 
 
---- 
Iran 
---- 
 
9.  (C) In his meeting with Codel Kyl, Shalom turned to the 
issue of Iran's nuclear program, describing it as a 
"nightmare" for Israel.  Iran, he said, will do everything in 
its power to develop a nuclear bomb.  Right now, he said, 
Iran is trying to "buy time" in order to pursue its true 
interests, which are hostile to Israel.  He said that now 
that the U.S. presidential election is over, the time has 
come to bring the issue before the Security Council.  Asked 
what would be the next step after moving the issue to the 
Security Council, Shalom said that Iran should face sanctions 
and if it still fails to comply, "we should stop them." 
Recognizing Europe's economic interests, he acknowledged that 
it is "not so easy to put pressure on Iran."  He commended 
France for being "the toughest" on Iran, and also commended 
the UK stance.  The Germans, he said, are not as tough on 
Iran as they should be. 
 
------ 
Turkey 
------ 
 
10. (C) Shalom lauded Israel's relationship with Turkey, 
which he referred to as "the only Muslim democracy."  Turkey, 
he said, is an example that the tenets of Islam and democracy 
are not contradictory.  Israel enjoys good strategic 
relations with Turkey, which Shalom hopes will help bridge 
the gap between Israel and the rest of the Arab world. 
 
11. (U) Codel Kerry consisted of Senator John Kerry, senior 
foreign policy advisor Nancy Stetson, press secretary David 
Wade, and military escort Col. Michael Barbero.  Codel Kyl 
consisted of Senators Jon Kyl, Lisa Murkowski and Mel 
Martinez, Rep. Adam Smith, Brandon Wales, senior foreign 
policy advisor to Sen. Kyl, and military escorts LTC Sam 
Mundy and Maj. Pete McAleer. 
 
12. (U) Codel Kerry cleared this message. 
 
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