US embassy cable - 05MUSCAT98

UNCLAS MUSCAT 000098 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARP (TROBERTS), NEA/PPD (CWHITTLESEY), NEA/P 
(FFINVER), INR/R/MR 
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH 
PARIS FOR ZEYA 
USCENTCOM FOR PLUSH 
FOREIGN PRESS CENTER/ASILAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, KMDR, OIIP, MU, Public Affairs, International Relations 
SUBJECT: MUSCAT MEDIA REACTION: POST ELECTION PALESTINE, IRAQI 
ELECTION BOYCOTT, TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ 
 
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The Hard Part 
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1. Government-owned Arabic daily "Oman" published an editorial on 
January 15 under the title, "After the Palestinian Election": 
 
"Now that the Palestinians have democratically elected Mr. Abbas 
as their leader, the hard part will begin.  Mr. Abbas in his new 
role as President must now carry the weight of his people's 
hopes, dreams and desires.  If President Abbas is unable to gain 
control of the disputed territories that Palestinians consider 
their own or significantly improve the bleak Palestinian economy, 
his supporters will quickly turn against him.  Hamas and Islamic 
Jihad officially boycotted the presidential election, though 
members of both groups participated in the municipal elections. 
Despite the boycott, both groups expressed a willingness to 
cooperate with President Abbas.  U.S. President George Bush's 
prompt endorsement of the Abbas victory further strengthened the 
prospects of the new president.  The endorsement indicates the 
importance that the U.S. places on the success of the Abbas 
presidency.  If a peace settlement is to be achieved during the 
current Bush administration, the U.S. will need to provide 
millions in aid to the Palestinians ... However, questions remain 
as to whether the U.S. will be able to provide Abbas the support 
he needs.  After all, completing the mission in Iraq is also a 
big priority for Bush." 
 
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Three-fourths of Iraq 
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2. On January 13, privately-owned Arabic daily "Al-Watan" carried 
an editorial entitled, "The Tragedy of Iraq": 
 
"One U.S. official has gone on record saying that the proposed 
election will be considered acceptable if polling can be held in 
three-fourths or four-fifths of the country, essentially the 
majority of Iraq.  Unfortunately, this kind of arithmetic is 
unrealistic since over one fourth of the non-participating cities 
fall largely in Sunni majority areas.  Cities like Fallujah have 
already been designated `no go' areas for polling because of the 
extreme measures taken to ensure security in the zone. The Shia- 
majority Baghdad suburb of Sadr City presents no less a security 
challenge and is also considered a `no go' area.  Yet how can 
these Iraqi voices be excluded simply because they live in cities 
with tenuous security?  If the Iraqi elections are held under the 
present circumstances, they will have little credibility with the 
Iraqi people and will, therefore, fail, making it even more 
difficult for the America and its allies to ensure a safe 
withdrawal from the quagmire that Iraq has become." 
 
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Should Elections in Iraqi Mean American Withdrawal? 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3. On January 13, privately-owned Arabic daily "Al-Watan" carried 
an editorial entitled, "Changes through The Election": 
 
"The Iraqi elections are a crucial final step before the U.S. 
really returns power to the people of Iraq and not simply to the 
U.S.-imposed Allawi interim government.  It is vitally important 
that the U.S. and Iraqi people alike understand that this 
election will not bring the fighting to an end.  What it will do, 
however, is shift the fighting to the political arena with Iraqis 
quarreling over positions of power in their own country, as 
opposed to the current situation in which Iraqis are fighting a 
foreign occupying force.  Washington should show support for the 
upcoming election by offering to withdraw U.S. troops following 
the election.  If the U.S. were to make such an announcement, it 
would light a fire under the Iraqis, alerting them to the fact 
that the time of the U.S. intervention is nearly over -- almost 
two years after the war began.  This announcement would also 
alert Iraq's neighbors and the rest of the world that someone 
other than the United States will be taking responsibility for 
the political and security environment in Iraq." 
 
BALTIMORE