US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA80

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000080 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FROM BRAZZAVILLE EMBASSY OFFICE 
 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C 
 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CF 
SUBJECT: CONGO/B: A LOOK AT THE NEW GOVERNMENT, REACTIONS TO 
CHANGE IN FINANCE MINISTER. 
 
REF:  04 KINSHASA 02115 
 
1. (U) POST HAS NO ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, 
THEREFORE MORE DETAILED ANAYLSIS WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN 
POSSIBLE. 
 
2. (U) SUMMARY: IN A FOLLOW-UP TO CONGO/B PRESIDENT DENIS 
SASSOU NGUESSO'S NEW YEAR'S DAY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTING HIS 
DESIRE FOR A NEW, MORE EFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE, AND SMALLER 
GOVERNMENT TO ADVANCE FURTHER REFORMS, THE COUNTRY WAS 
SURPRISED ON JANAURY 8 WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A LARGER 
CABINET THAN BEFORE (35 VERSES 34), WITH ONLY 5 NEW FACES. 
AT BEST THIS IS A RECONFIGURED CABINET, NOT A NEW ONE. MANY 
OF THE HARDLINERS, WHO CONGOLESE HAD EXPECTED TO BE REMOVED, 
REMAIN IN GOVERNMENT, BUT WITH EITHER BROADER POWERS OR 
RECONFIGURED PORTFOLIOS.  THE BIGGEST SURPRISE WAS THAT THE 
COUNTRY'S VERY ABLE AND RESPECTED FINANCE MINISTER - BOTH IN 
CONGO AND AMONG THE IFIS - WAS NO LONGER IN THE GOVERNMENT. 
THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS THE CREATION OF A PRIME MINISTER 
POSITION WHEN THE LETTER OF THE CONSTITUTION DOES CITE SUCH 
A POSITION. THE ANTI-CORRUPTION MINISTRY WAS ALSO 
ELIMINATED, AND REPLACED BY AN AMORPHOUS "MINISTER OF STATE 
FOR THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND REFORM OF THE STATE." OUTSIDE OF 
THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER, PACIFIQUE ISSOBEKA, THE OTHER NEW 
FACE IN THE CABINET OF ANY IMPORT IS THE APPOINTMENT OF 
NATIONAL PETROLEUM DIRECTOR (SNPC) BRUNO ITOUA AS MINISTER 
IN A RECONFIGURED MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND HYDRO-POWER. (NB: 
PREVIOUSLY THE MINISTRY WAS CALLED MINES, ENERGY AND HRYDRO- 
POWER.) DESPITE PUBLIC STATED DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE 
INDEPENDENT PRESS AND ON THE STREET, THERE IS NO OVERT 
EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF PLANS FOR PUBLIC DISORDER OR ANY 
OTHER REACTION BESIDES THE ISSUES PLAYING OUT IN THE 
INDEPENDENT PRESS AND PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS. END SUMMARY. 
 
3. (U) AN ATMOSPHERE OF DISAPPOINTMENT PERSIST IN THE 
CAPTIAL, BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO MANIFESTATION OF THIS IN 
TERMS OF DEMONSTRATIONS OR OTHER PUBLIC DISORDER. IT IS 
VIEWED THAT PUBLIC DISORDER IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM 
GIVEN THAT MOST CONGOLESE STILL FEEL THE TRAUMAS OF THE 1997- 
2001 CONFLICTS. WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT THE MEDIA BOTH 
BROADCAST AND PRINT HAVE COVERED EXTENSIVELY "MAN ON THE 
STREET" VIEWS, WHICH NOTE CONFUSION, DISAPPOINTMENT, AND 
CREDIBILITY ISSUES OF THE NEW TEAM. FOR MANY, INCLUDING 
THOSE IN THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY, CONGO MIGHT HAVE MISSED A 
CHANCE TO BUILD ON 2004 REFORMS, AND FURTHER CHANGE ITS 
IMAGE IN THE NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY AS REGARDS TO FURTHER 
TRANSPARENCY EFFORTS. 
 
4. (U) THE NEW GOVERNMENT TOO HAS ALSO BEEN ON A MEDIA 
BLITZ, SEEKING TO EXPLAIN HOW IT IS AND WILL BE DIFFERENT, 
ADDRESSING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE 
PRIME MINISTER POST, AND HIGHLIGHTING THAT COMMITMENTS, 
PARTICULARLY TO THE IMF AND WORLD BANK WILL BE HONORED AND 
THAT THE IMF PROGRAM WILL REMAIN ON TRACK. 
 
5. (SBU) THE NON-REAPPOINTMENT OF THE FINANCE AND THE NEW 
PRIME MINISTER POSTION ARE THE TWO BIG QUESTIONS BEING 
ADDRESSED BY THE PUBLIC AND DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY. THE RUMOR 
ON THE STREET IS THAT IN THE UPCOMING MID-FEBRUARY CEMAC 
MEETING IN LIBREVILLE, PRESIDENT SASSOU WILL NOMINATE 
OUTGOING FINANCE MINSITER ANDLEY AS THE VICE GOVERNOR OF THE 
BANK OF CENTRAL AFRICA, THE POST HE HELD BEFORE BECOMING 
FINANCE MINISTER, AND THE POST WHICH THE NEW FINANCE 
MINISTER PACIFIQUE ISSOBEKA IS COMING FROM TO THE ROC. WE 
HEAR THIS IS TO DEMONSTRATE THE PRESIDENT'S APPRECIATION AND 
THANKS TO THE PUBLICLY WELL-LIKED FORMER FINANCE MINISTER 
FOR HIS STEWARDSHIP OF CONGO'S DEBT ISSUES AND HIS WORK WITH 
THE IMF AND WORLD BANK. ISSOIBEKA, WE UNDERSTAND IS A SOLID 
TECHNICIAN, BUT IN CONGO THAT IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO STEM 
OR HANDLE THE POLITICAL PRESSURES WHICH ARE SURE TO COME. WE 
WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE. HANDLING THE POLITICAL PRESSURE 
ON TRANSPARENCY ISSUES WAS BY FAR THE FORMER FINANCE 
MINISTER'S GREATEST STRENGH, BUT ALSO ONE THAT GARNERED 
DISLIKE AMONG CERTAIN MORE HARDLINE MINISTERS. 
 
6. (U) ON THE PM POST GOING TO FORMER GOVERNMENT 
COORDINATION AND TRANSPORT MINISTER ISIDORE MVOUBA, 
DISCUSSIONS CONTINUE WHETHER OR NOT ARTICLE 74 OF THE 2002 
CONSTITUTION WHICH STATES THAT "THE PRESIDENT IS AUTHORIZED 
TO DELEGATE A FRACTION OF HIS POWERS FOR REASONS OF 
EFFICIENCY TO A MEMBER OF THE GOVERNMENT FOR CERTAIN 
DUTIES," COVERS THE CREATION OF THE PM POST.  IT IS UNDER 
THIS ARTCILE THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS JUSTIFYING THE PM 
POSITION, AND IT IS THIS ARTICLE THAT THE INDEPENDENT PRINT 
PRESS AND PUBLIC ARE INTEPRETING DIFFERENTLY FROM THE 
GOVERNMENT. THE NEW MINISTER OF STATE FOR THE PRESIDENCY, 
FORMERLY THE PRESIDENT'S CHIEF OF STAFF, EMMAUEL YOKA, WHO 
IS ALSO THE PRESIDENT'S UNCLE, STATED IN A JAN 11 TELEVISION 
INTERVIEW THAT THE "SPIRIT OF ARTCILE 74 ALLOWS FOR THE 
CREATION OF A PRIME MINISTER." HENCE, THE DEBATES WILL 
CONTINUE, BUT THE POSTION WILL BE PART OF THIS RECONFIGURED 
CABINET. 
 
7. (U) THE OTHER THREE NEW FACES IN THE CABINET ARE THE 
MINISTERS OF HEALTH, SECURITY, AND SMALL AND MEDIUM 
ENTERPRISES. CONVERSATIONS WITH INCOMING FINANCE MINISTER, 
OTHER MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT, JOURNALISTS, AND OTHER CONTACTS 
AS WELL AS ANALYSIS WILL BE REPORTED SEPTEL WHEN POST HAS 
ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED SYSTEM.  WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT A 
VISIT TO CONGO/B BY THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE IMF HAS BEEN 
POSTPONED BY THE IMF.  THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER PLANS TO 
TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON AT THE END OF FEBRUARY. 
 
8. (U) POST WILL FAX LIST OF RECONFIGURED CABINET LINE UP 
AND PHOTOS TO DEPARTMENT. 
 
9.  (U) BRAZZAVILLE EMBASSY OFFICE - SANDERS 
MEECE