US embassy cable - 02HARARE561

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000561 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR PDAS BELLAMY 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS USAID 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRASIER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/07 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAID, ECON, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION 
PROGRAMS SHUT DOWN AS "ILLEGAL MEETING" 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON: 1.5 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  GOZ SECURITY OFFICIALS CUT SHORT A 
MARCH 4 MDC BRIEFING FOR THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY ON THE 
GROUNDS THAT THIS WAS AN "ILLEGAL MEETING" UNDER THE 
PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA).  BEFORE THIS 
OCCURRED, MDC OFFICIALS HAD EXPRESSED A NEED FOR MASSIVE 
FOOD ASSISTANCE MAIZE AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 MILLION IN 
GRANT AID OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS TO IMPLEMENT A MORE 
RATIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM.  WHILE THE 
MDC'S FIGURES FOR DONOR ASSISTANCE LEVELS ARE 
UNREALISTIC, AT LEAST IT SHOWS A FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM 
PROBLEMS THAT WILL NOT GO AWAY IN THE POST-ELECTION 
ENVIRONMENT.  BY CLOSING DOWN THE MEETING, THE GOZ AGAIN 
HAS THROWN DOWN THE GAUNTLET BEFORE THE WEST.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
GOZ SHUTS DOWN MEETING 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U) APPROXIMATELY 45 MINUTES INTO A MARCH 4 MEETING 
OUTLINING THE MDC'S TRANSITION PROGRAM FOR ZIMBABWE, MDC 
LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI INFORMED INVITED MEMBERS OF THE 
DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY THAT THE GOZ HAD ORDERED HIM TO 
SHUT DOWN THE "ILLEGAL" GATHERING UNDER POSA.  THE GOZ 
ALSO REQUESTED THE MDC TO PRODUCE THE NAMES OF ALL THOSE 
WHO ATTENDED -- OR WERE INVITED.  MOST OF THE EUROPEAN 
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UNION, INCLUDING THE UK HIGH COMMISSION AND DFID WERE 
REPRESENTED, WITH DENMARK, BELGIUM, SPAIN, AND NORWAY 
REPRESENTED BY THEIR AMBASSADORS.  (NOTE:  THE ONLY 
AFRICAN DIPLOMAT PRESENT WAS A THIRD SECRETARY FROM THE 
BOTSWANA HIGH COMMISSION.)  TSVANGIRAI ANGRILY DENOUNCED 
THE ACTION, LABELING IT AS MORE "POLITICAL HARASSMENT," 
AND VOWED THAT NO NAMES WOULD BE FORTHCOMING.  MR. NGOWU 
WAS NAMED AS THE GOZ OFFICIAL WHO ORDERED THE CLOSURE. 
 
MDC STARTS TO BRIEF DIP CORPS ON TRANSITION PROGRAM 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
3.  (U) TSVANGIRAI, FLANKED BY VICE PRESIDENT GIBSON 
SIBANDA, TSVANGIRAI OPENED THE ABORTIVE BRIEFING BY 
NOTING THAT REGARDLESS OF THE ELECTION'S OUTCOME, THE 
COMBINATION OF DROUGHT AND LACK OF FOOD PRODUCTION WOULD 
FORCE MANY ZIMBABWEANS TO RELY ON FOOD AID UNTIL LATE 
2003.  TO ADDRESS THIS AND OTHER PRESSING ISSUES, 
TSVANGIRAI ASKED IAN MAKONE (A CONSULTANT AND MDC 
 
SIPDIS 
COMMITTEE MEMBER), RENSON GASELA (MDC MP AND SHADOW 
AGRICULTURE MINISTER), AND PETER ROBINSON TO FLESH OUT 
THE MDC STRATEGY FOR RETURNING ZIMBABWE TO PRODUCTIVITY 
AND PROSPERITY. 
 
FOOD SECURITY 
-------------- 
 
4.  (U) SHADOW AGRICULTURE MINISTER RENSON GASELA GAVE 
THE MDC'S ASSESSMENT OF FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS.  ZIMBABWE 
CONSUMES 1.8 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE MEAL PER ANNUM, BUT 
THIS YEAR WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 600 THOUSAND 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00561  01 OF 02  041339Z 
TONS, HE SAID (THE LOWEST FIGURE WE HAVE HEARD TO DATE); 
CURRENT MAIZE MEAL IMPORTATION IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP 
PEOPLE FED FOR ONLY 2.5 DAYS PER WEEK.  ZIMBABWE WILL 
NEED TO IMPORT 100 THOUSAND TONS/MONTH OF MAIZE MEAL 
UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 2003.  ZIMBABWE WILL ALSO NEED 15 
THOUSAND, 5 THOUSAND, AND 2.5 THOUSAND TONS PER MONTH OF 
WHEAT, SOYBEANS AND VEGETABLE OIL, RESPECTIVELY, TO 
PREVENT MALNOURISHMENT.  ZIMBABWE WOULD ALSO NEED TO 
IMPORT $6 MILLION IN ESSENTIAL MEDICAL SUPPLIES AND 
LIQUID FUEL/ELECTRICITY ABOVE AND BEYOND THAT CURRENTLY 
BUDGETED, SAID GASELA. 
 
5.  (U) THE MDC'S MEDIUM-TERM FOOD PRODUCTION STRATEGY 
INTENDS EXPLICIT SUBSIDIES OF MAIZE MEAL IMPORTS UNTIL 
PRODUCTION LEVELS INCREASE. (COMMENT: AND, ALTHOUGH HE 
DID NOT SAY IT, UNTIL THE ZIMBABWE DOLLAR STABILIZES. 
END COMMENT.)  AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD MOVE TO ABANDON 
PRICE CONTROLS ALTOGETHER, AND WOULD ALLOW DIRECT 
PURCHASING FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING BOARD TO LOWER THE 
BASE PRICE (WISHFUL THINKING, WE FEAR).  THE HAMMERMILL 
MEAL PRICE SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN THE IMPORT PRICE, HE 
SAID, THUS ENCOURAGING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION. 
 
LAND REFORM: MDC LOOKS TO DONORS 
--------------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ0889 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00 
      EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  EPAE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /014W 
                  ------------------6F0390  041339Z /38 
R 041334Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1081 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
NSC WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000561 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR PDAS BELLAMY 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS USAID 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRASIER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/07 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAID, ECON, PHUM, ZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00561  02 OF 02  041339Z 
SUBJECT: MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION 
PROGRAMS SHUT DOWN AS "ILLEGAL MEETING" 
 
6.  (U) GASELA EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO 
ALL ZIMBABWEANS, SAYING, "LAND REFORM IS NOT A POLITICAL 
PARTY ISSUE."  HE WAS QUICK TO POINT OUT, HOWEVER, THAT 
THE GOZ'S PROGRAM HAS NOT LED TO THE DESIRED RESULTS; 
EVEN SHOULD THE GOZ COMPLETE ITS RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, A 
MAJORITY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS WOULD STILL BE IN COMMUNAL 
AREAS, HE SAID.  ONCE RESETTLED, THE NEW FARMERS ARE 
LEFT ON THEIR OWN TO FARM THE LAND, LEADING TO UNDER- 
PRODUCTIVE SUBSISTENCE FARMING.   THUS, 90 MILLION 
HECTARES OF COMMUNAL AREA FARMLAND ARE UNDERDEVELOPED, 
HE SAID. 
 
7.  (U) GASELA ADDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO CREATE AN 
IMPARTIAL LAND COMMISSION, WHICH WILL COORDINATE LAND 
REFORM (WITH INPUT FROM THE MINISTRIES OF LOCAL 
GOVERNMENT & ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURE & 
INFRASTRUCTURE), AFTER RECEIVING ITS MARCHING ORDERS 
FROM A LAND INDABA (CONCLAVE) TO BE CONVENED AFTER THE 
ELECTION.  HE CONCLUDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO CREATE A 
RURAL DEVELOPMENT FUND THAT WOULD COST $33 MILLION FOR 
2002, $200 MILLION FOR 2003, AND $300 MILLION FOR 2004. 
THIS PROGRAM WOULD REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL DONOR GRANT 
ASSISTANCE, HE NOTED. 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
8.  (C) IF OUR MATH IS CORRECT, THE MDC TRANSITION 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00561  02 OF 02  041339Z 
STRATEGY IS POSITED ON USD ONE BILLION PLUS IN DONOR 
SUPPORT FOR EMERGENCY FOOD AID AND LAND REFORM IN THE 
2002-2004 PERIOD.  THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FUEL 
AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES AND A NUMBER OF OTHER NECESSARY 
EXPENDITURES.  WHILE THIS SUM IS CLEARLY UNREALISTIC, AT 
LEAST IT SHOWS THAT THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS AWARE OF THE 
ENORMITY OF THE CHALLENGES IT FACES.  THE REACTION OF 
THE PARTICIPATING DIPLOMATS TO THE ONE-BILLION FIGURE 
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THEIR REACTION TO THE ABRUPT CLOSURE 
OF THE MEETING.  INITIAL DISBELIEF GAVE WAY TO AMUSEMENT 
AND WAS CRYSTALLIZING INTO ANGER BY THE TIME THE 
DIPLOMATS WERE FILING OUT OF THE MEIKLES HOTEL, WHERE 
THE BRIEFING TOOK PLACE.  THE GOZ IS DOING ITS BEST TO 
BURN BRIDGES TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT 
THEY CAN BE REBUILT EVEN IF ZANU-PF MANAGES BY HOOK OR 
CROOK TO HOLD ON TO POWER. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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