US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN49

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, EI, UK, PTER, NIPP 
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS:  GOI DISCOURAGED, BUT COMMITTED TO 
FORGE AHEAD 
 
 
Classified By: AMB JAMES C. KENNY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D 
 
SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Summary:  On January 13, the Ambassador met with 
Michael Collins, senior advisor to the prime minister, and 
separately with members of parliament.  Anger and 
discouragement are rampant following the assertion that the 
PIRA is likely behind the December 20 robbery of Belfast's 
Northern Bank.  Nonetheless, the GOI is determined to move 
ahead with the peace process, and considers the Good Friday 
Agreement (GFA) and the December 8 joint statement by the UK 
and Irish PMs to be the starting point.  PM Ahern is clearly 
sending Gerry Adams a message by deferring a meeting, but 
Collins said Ireland would likely oppose sanctioning Sinn 
Fein, and would not jeopardize the interests of nationalists, 
nor let unionists think their agenda is more possible. At the 
same time, Sinn Fein can no longer expect any "brownie 
points" from decommissioning. Collins also delivered a 
message from PM Ahern to the effect that Ahern urges the U.S. 
to continue to facilitate visas for Sinn Fein.  Collins said 
Ahern believes Members of Congress and some Sinn Fein 
supporters in the U.S. have leverage with Sinn Fein and could 
set Sinn Fein straight on the need to end paramilitarism and 
criminality.  Collins also raised March 17 events in 
Washington, seemingly wanting to confirm that events were 
still on and that decisions about who to include were not 
locked in stone, yet.  Later, parliamentarians also raised 
March 17 with the ambassador, suggesting that we invite some 
of them as a counterpoint to what they referred to as the 
many Sinn Fein members who usually travel to Washington for 
the day.  Also on January 13, Justice Minister McDowell 
issued a very hard hitting statement (emailed to EUR, S/P, 
Belfast and London) against Sinn Fein, in which he said Sinn 
Fein and IRA were "two sides of the same coin" and that Sinn 
Fein tries to "rewrite history and to baptize the most 
brutal, cowardly, blood-soaked, divisive, anti-republican, 
sectarian, hate-driven and destructive terror campaign as a 
heroic struggle for peace and human rights." End Summary 
 
 
Ambassador's Meeting with Michael Collins 
----------------------------------------- 
2. (C)  Michael Collins, advisor to the Prime Minister, said 
the GOI is still "trying to get its head around" next steps 
in the peace process, following Chief Constable Hugh Orde's 
announcement that the Provisional IRA (PIRA) is most likely 
behind the December 20 robbery of Belfast's Northern Bank. 
Collins said the GOI has no firm strategy, yet, but 
underlined that the Good Friday Agreement, and the progress 
the PMs announced on December 8, remain the baseline for 
future talks.  Collins outlined upcoming meetings with UK 
officials (FM Ahern-Paul Murphy on January 17; PM Ahern-PM 
Blair late January/early February) and said that although 
Gerry Adams calls daily seeking a meeting, PM Ahern will not 
have time to see him until after his impending trade mission 
to China, probably "around January 24." (Ahern leaves over 
the weekend.)  He also said that Martin Frazier, the Prime 
Minister's new director for Northern Ireland (also at the 
meeting) would travel to Belfast on Tuesday, January 18 for 
what he referred to as talks with UK officials and Sinn Fein. 
 
3.  (C) Collins referred to PM Ahern's comments following 
Hugh Orde's press conference to confirm that the GOI agrees 
PIRA is likely behind the robbery.  He said PIRA's likely 
involvement puts the Irish government "in a bit of a bind" 
and hurts its credibility.  At the same time, Collins called 
the facts of the robbery "murky," given the lack of evidence, 
and said that unionists must understand allegations that PIRA 
committed the robbery do not make the unionist agenda "more 
possible."  The Irish government, he said, "will not 
jeopardize the interests of nationalists."  He said that PM 
Ahern is not likely to favor sanctions against Sinn Fein nor 
to favor ending salaries to Stormont MLAs, but might feel 
differently after the UK elections expected in May.  He also 
said that the IRA has lost all its leverage and can no longer 
expect massive dividends from decommissioning.  Weapons have 
become a liability to Sinn Fein, and following the robbery, 
Sinn Fein can no longer expect to earn brownie points for 
decommissioning. 
 
Robbery Derails Quiet GOI-Sinn Fein talks on Criminality 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
4. (C) Turning to criminality, Collins revealed that Justice 
Minister McDowell undertook a productive and quiet dialogue 
with Sinn Fein following the December 8 statements by the 
prime ministers.  This came to a full stop after the robbery. 
 
Dinner with parliamentarians 
---------------------------- 
5.  (C)  The ambassador also hosted a dinner January 13 for 
parliamentarians from the governing Fianna Fail and 
Progressive Democrats parties.  Like the government, the TDs 
believe IRA committed the robbery, citing the sophistication 
of the crime, Hugh Orde's integrity, and especially the word 
of PM Ahern.  At the same time, they favor continuing the 
peace process, seeing no alternative and fearing a return to 
violence.  They also described Sinn Fein's political talents 
in the Republic, where their work organizing at the grass 
roots level is extensive and effective.  The parliamentarians 
alleged voting irregularities by Sinn Fein and Sinn Fein's 
unfair advantages in having more staff to help in local 
offices (implying it was private funds, including from the 
U.S., and illicit funds that allowed them to hire staff). 
Additionally, they said Sinn Fein is able to intervene on so 
many issues at parliament because its supporters in academia 
and "high levels of Irish society" research and write 
statements for them.  Asked why they let Sinn Fein get away 
with claiming to be the real republicans, the genuine 
advocates of the poor, and the most "honest party," the 
parliamentarians essentially shook their heads, noting their 
own need to organize better at the grassroots, and Sinn Fein 
members' discipline and workaholic habits.  "They have no 
social life!" lamented one parliamentarian. 
 
 
Comment 
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6. (C) COMMENT:  Collins avoided saying that the Taoiseach is 
deliberately holding Sinn Fein at arm's length, but Ahern 
certainly could have made time to meet with Adams if he had 
wanted to.  Nonetheless, the Irish government's anger at Sinn 
Fein does not alter its interest in resuming the peace 
process.  To have Sinn Fein weakened in Republic electoral 
terms is in PM Ahern's interest as he contemplates 2007 
general elections, as is getting Sinn Fein to renounce 
criminality.  In the end, however, the Irish government is 
committed to the peace process, believes there can be no 
solution without Sinn Fein, and, although willing to 
capitalize politically and rhetorically on Sinn Fein's 
troubles, does not appear ready to get exceptionally tough on 
Sinn Fein.  Justice Minister McDowell's statement is 
interesting in this light because it is exceptionally 
forthright.  McDowell has often been the "heavy" with Sinn 
Fein, both at the request of the PM and by personal and party 
belief (McDowell is a Progressive Democrat, the more 
conservative junior partner in government.)  We suspect he is 
throwing down a gauntlet both to Sinn Fein and to PM Ahern, 
with the goal of ensuring a tough GOI stance on IRA 
criminality.  End Comment. 
KENNY