US embassy cable - 05ZAGREB78

UNCLAS  ZAGREB 000078 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: ALLEGED FRAUD IN CROATIAN 
DIASPORA VOTE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE RESULTS 
 
REF: SARAJEVO 89 
 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT 
------------------- 
 
1. (SBU) The respected Croatian NGO GONG has alleged that a 
number of votes recorded at polling stations in Bosnia and 
Herzegovina (BiH) during the first round of the Croatian 
presidential elections were fraudulent.  These allegations 
apply only to so-called diaspora voting in BiH and not/not in 
other diaspora voting nor in voting within Croatia.  Although 
not enough votes were cast outside of Croatia to affect the 
final results, the indications of fraud have renewed calls 
for electoral reform.  It is unlikely that the Sanader 
government will seek to change the long-standing policy of 
diaspora voting for the parliament or President, as the 
diaspora vote was critical to the current, slim HDZ majority 
in the Sabor.  Regardless of this scandal, President Mesic is 
still the overwhelming favorite to win reelection in Sunday's 
runoff round.  END SUMMARY and COMMENT. 
 
Fraud Charges 
------------- 
 
2. (U) In a widely publicized press conference February 13, 
the respected Croatian NGO GONG announced that it had 
uncovered evidence of irregularities in voting by ethnic 
Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).  Although GONG did 
not try to estimate the aggregate level of fraud in BiH, it 
did find that a large number of voters were registered on the 
day of elections at the polling place ) as many as 29.8% in 
one Mostar polling station.  GONG also contacted a random 
sample of 10 persons shown as having voted: four were dead, 
five said they had not voted, and just one said he had voted. 
 Finally, GONG found that several members of individual 
district voting commissions were HDZ party members in 
violation of regulations.  GONG has filed criminal charges 
and asked the State Prosecutor's Office to investigate. 
 
3. (SBU) Following this press conference, GONG Deputy 
Director Vanja Skoric told us that they have received ten new 
individual complaints of fraudulent votes in BiH.  GONG told 
us that similar fraud was theoretically possible within 
Croatia, but they had not received a single call or 
allegation of such fraud in Croatian voting.  Chief State 
Prosecutor Mladen Bajic confirmed that he had launched an 
investigation based on GONG's information, but noted that he 
had no indication that the fraud was widespread and had not 
received any complaints of voting irregularities in Croatia 
or BiH other than those from GONG. 
 
Responses 
--------- 
 
4. (SBU) The State Election Commission Chairman (and Supreme 
Court Chief Justice) Ivica Crnic told us that so far, the 
Commission's investigations of complaints had not/not 
indicated any malfeasance by election workers.  He said that 
although no fraud was alleged by district voting commissions 
containing HDZ members, the Commission had replaced all 
members who had not properly declared their party membership. 
 Crnic also said that the Commission would also send 
representatives to BiH to monitor voting procedures.  GONG, 
which had only two observers in all BiH for the first round, 
told us they will send four mobile teams to observe eighteen 
polling stations for the second round vote. 
 
Minimal Impact 
-------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The State Election Commission, GONG, and the State 
Prosecutor all told us that the reported irregularities, if 
proved true, could only have had minimal impact on the 
elections.  Our calculations indicate that President Mesic 
would have won the election in the first round only if more 
than 28,000 of the 77,000 diaspora vote (or over half the 
56,000 in BiH) were fraudulently recorded for candidates 
other than President Mesic.  Further, even if all 46,000 
diaspora votes for HDZ candidate Jadranka Kosor were 
discarded, she still would have come in second.  However, if 
only domestic Croatia votes were counted, President Mesic 
would have won in the first round with 14,000 votes over the 
50 percent threshold. 
 
Reform Possible? 
---------------- 
 
6. (SBU) This scandal has brought renewed calls for electoral 
reform.  Sabor Speaker and HDZ leader Vladimir Seks told the 
press that the time had come to change election laws, 
 
 
particularly in rules governing voter registration.  The NGO 
Juris Protecta calculates that Croatia has just over four 
million registered voters (inside Croatia, 4.4 million total 
adding diaspora registered voters) but a voting age 
population of closer to 3.5 million.  Voter registries are 
purged of duplicates at the county level but not at the 
national level and there is no systematic purging of deceased 
persons.  Judge Crnic told us he had sent a letter to Prime 
Minister Sanader and Speaker Seks last year warning of 
deficiencies in the election system and urging the 
development of a detailed, uniform voting process for 
presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.  Crnic has 
long advocated the creation of a professional election 
commission that would take over from the judiciary running 
elections. 
 
Comment: Mesic Likely Winner 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Polling in advance of Sunday's runoff shows 
President Mesic with a comfortable 58-61 percent rating, with 
Jadranka Kosor trailing far behind with 22-26 percent. 
Although historically HDZ voters tend to hide their 
intentions from pollsters, Mesic's lead appears 
insurmountable.  Voter anger over this scandal, and the 
presumption that at least the BiH wing of the HDZ was 
complicit, will likely fuel a pro-Mesic turnout on Sunday. 
FRANK 
 
 
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