US embassy cable - 02ABUJA680

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000680 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2007 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP UP - FEB 25 TO MAR 1 
 
Classified by DCM Andrews for reason 1.5 (d.) 
 
 
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Cabinet Reshuffle In The Works? 
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1.  (C)  The Senate on February 27 consented to the 
President's February 26 nomination of Dr. Olu Agunloye as 
Minister without Portfolio. Agunloye, a physicist by 
training, was a close friend of slain Attorney General Ige. 
Like Ige, Agunloye hails from the Southwest and is a member 
of the Yoruba-dominated Alliance of Democracy political 
party. Some Senators speculated during his brief appearance 
before them that eventually Agunloye will head the Ministry 
of Solid Minerals. 
 
 
2.  (C) Obasanjo's critics, particularly those in the North, 
will see Agunloye's appointment as added  evidence that 
Obasanjo has embraced a "Southwest" strategy of solidifying 
ties to his Yoruba homeland in the run up to the 2003 
election.  Many in the North believe that Obasanjo is 
pursuing this strategy to the point of ignoring Northern 
leaders, and their concerns.  If Agunloye is given the solid 
minerals brief, these Northerners will see his appointment as 
detrimental to their interests. Much of Nigeria's solid 
mineral deposits are in the North.  Some Northerners will 
view Aguunloye as an interloper trying to control the 
resources and revenues from resources which they believe more 
rightfully should be controlled by one of their own. 
 
 
3. (C) Agunloye's appointment also has revived speculation 
about a major cabinet reshuffling.  Obasanjo has to be aware 
that his popularity is flagging and that his Administration 
needs a tonic. A cabinet reshuffling would give him leave to 
jettison some non-performing ministers under the pretext that 
he is freeing them from their duties to allow them to pursue 
their ambitions for elective office. However, removing 
ministers is only half the equation.  The other half is their 
replacements.  The reshuffling will not improve Obasanjo's 
political standing unless replacements are a cut above their 
predecessors.  With only a year left in his term, convincing 
honest, highly competent people to take jobs for such a brief 
duration will be difficult unless Obasanjo has plans beyond 
2003. 
 
 
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Waiting to Hear From Above 
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4. (C)  Despite the intensified speculation about a cabinet 
reshuffling and a 2003 reelection bid, President Obasanjo 
continues to hold those with inquiring minds at bay. 
Deflecting an inquiry made by a women's group paying a call 
on him, Obasanjo reminded the group that he said he would 
take his instruction from God but as of yet had not received 
his celestial instructions. However, Obasanjo said he 
expected to receive his orders "very soon." (Comment: 
Obasanjo is a religious man and appeals to religion are 
commonplace in all aspects of Nigerian life, including 
politics. While those who like Obasanjo will consider his 
statement as a sign of piety, many critics are beyond giving 
him the benefit of the doubt, spiritually, politically or 
otherwise. Some have openly poked fun at his statements about 
divine instruction.  They believe that the voice he finally 
hears will tell him to run simply because that voice will be 
his own.  End comment) 
 
 
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President and House Remain at Loggerheads 
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5. (C) The financial disclosure standoff between the 
Presidency and House of Assembly entered its second week. 
Speaker Na'abba claims the House is almost out of funds for 
its operations but that he will not buckle to Obasanjo's 
demands to furnish an accounting of members' salaries and 
other emoluments. Na'abba's position is that the Revenue 
Mobilization and Fiscal Commission, an arm of the executive, 
has this information as it is the body that actually 
calculates payments to members. Obasanjo had barred the 
payment of salaries and other funds to the House until the 
Speaker complies with his disclosure requests; however, the 
President did agree to partial payment earlier this week 
after the intercession of Senate President Anyim and PDP 
Chairman Ogbeh. 
 
 
6. (C) This impasse has affected the 2002 budget process as 
the House has delayed consideration of the measure, citing 
the lack of money as impairing its ability to function. 
Additionally, Na'abba has filed suit seeking an order 
compelling Obasanjo to release the funds. (Comment:  This is 
the latest in a string of rows between Na'abba and Obasanjo. 
If one did not know better, it would seem the two were in 
different political parties.  Since they are not, it appears 
that Na'abba is consciously staking out a position as an 
independent, if sometimes opposing power node to Obasanjo 
within the party itself.  While probably excluding himself 
from the "Friends of Olusegun" list, this ploy will likely 
boost Na'abba's appeal among disenchanted elements in the 
party as well as with members of the Northern elite critical 
of Obasanjo.  End comment.) 
 
 
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Firings at the Electoral Commission 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) Out of the blue, President Obasanjo dismissed 34 of 
37 Resident Electoral Commissioners (REC).  Although having 
their offices in the 36 states and the Federal Capital 
Territory, RECs belong to the Independent Electoral 
Commission hierarchy, not the state electoral apparatus. 
While the President's action were undisputedly within his 
constitutional prerogative, the action might not go down well 
politically. For some, the excuse that the REC's were 
dismissed at the behest of the governors of the affected 
states due to security reasons or for corruption does not 
hold water. There was no inkling that any of them was under 
investigation nor has any incriminating evidence been 
disclosed. Moreover, the 34 dismissed RECs were appointees of 
former Head of State Abubakar while the three who escaped the 
axe were recent Obasanjo appointees.  This has some observers 
suspecting that Obasanjo is trying to stack the electoral 
deck with his acolytes. Should he go ahead and appoint known 
loyalists to the positions, many people will begin to cry 
that an electoral foul has been committed. 
Jeter