US embassy cable - 05PARIS274

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000274 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY CHANGED PARA MARKING SO AS NOT TO 
                       TO CONFUSE WITH CLASSIFICATION 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ WORLD ORDER 
PARIS - FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 2005 
 
 
A. SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. IRAQ 
2. WORLD ORDER 
 
B. SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
DOMESTIC POLITICS ARE TODAY'S MAJOR LEAD AND EDITORIAL STORY, 
WITH THE CHIRAC-SARKOZY DUEL FRONT-PAGED IN LE FIGARO AND 
SEVERAL EDITORIALS DEVOTED TO THE CONTROVERSIAL REMARKS MADE 
BY JEAN-MARIE LE PEN, OF THE NATIONAL FRONT PARTY, ABOUT THE 
GERMAN OCCUPATION OF FRANCE, WHICH IN HIS WORDS "WAS NOT THAT 
INHUMANE." IN LE FIGARO MICHEL SCHIFRES WRITES: "ONE OF THE 
`MERITS' OF LE PEN, FOR WHICH HE CANNOT TAKE CREDIT, IS THAT 
HE AND HIS REMARKS ARE SO REVOLTING THAT IT GIVES US THE 
OPPORTUNITY TO REPEAT ONCE MORE WHAT THE OCCUPATION AND 
DEPORTATION WERE LIKE. THIS IS A NECESSITY THAT MUST BE 
REPEATED." 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES ITS LEAD STORY TO THE 
DISAPPEARANCE IN IRAQ, OVER NINE DAYS AGO, OF ONE OF ITS 
JOURNALISTS AND HER IRAQI DRIVER. FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE WORD 
ABDUCTION IS BEING UTTERED, AND BY THE IRAQI PRESIDENT GHAZI 
EL-YANUAR WHO IS ON AN OFFICIAL VISIT TO PARIS. REPORTS ON THE 
VISIT REITERATE PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S OPINION THAT "THE ELECTIONS 
MUST BE HELD AT THE SCHEDULED DATE, IN SPITE OF THE VIOLENCE," 
ACCORDING TO THIERRY OBERLE'S REPORT IN LE FIGARO. 
 
IRAQ IS THE SUBJECT OF A TWO-PAGE REPORT IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF- 
CENTER FRANCE SOIR, TITLED: "IRAQ PLUNGES INTO CHAOS." 
CORRESPONDENT THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUART DOUBTS WHETHER "THE 
SITUATION CAN IMPROVE AFTER THE ELECTIONS" AND CONTENDS THAT 
THIS IS PRESIDENT BUSH'S "MOST CRITICAL ISSUE." (SEE PART C) 
 
FRANCE SOIR INTERVIEWS JEAN-CHARLES BRISARD, AUTHOR OF A BOOK 
ON ZARKAWI AND AL-QAEDA: "THE AMERICANS DO NOT KNOW HOW TO 
DEAL WITH THE SITUATION IN IRAQ. ALREADY THEY HAVE LOST THE 
WAR ON THE POLITICAL LEVEL. IRAQ HAS BECOME TODAY THE NUMBER 
ONE PLACE OF REFUGE FOR TERRORISM, LIKE AFGHANISTAN IN THE 
90S. THE U.S. IS CAUGHT IN A VICIOUS CIRCLE: TO RESOLVE THE 
CRISIS IT NEEDS TO PRESSURE NEIGHBORING NATIONS WHICH SUPPORT 
THE IRAQI RESISTANCE, SUCH AS IRAN AND SYRIA. BUT THIS IN TURN 
CAN LEAD TO ANOTHER CIRCLE OF VIOLENCE." 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-ED PENNED BY FORMER 
PRIME MINISTER EDOUARD BALLADUR, IN WHICH HE ESTABLISHES THE 
GROUND RULES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY AND THE FUTURE OF 
UNIVERSALISM, IN WHICH THE U.S. AND FRANCE HAVE A ROLE TO 
PLAY. HIS COLUMN IS EXCERPTED FROM HIS LATEST BOOK. (SEE PART 
C.) 
 
C. SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ 
 
"IRAQ PLUNGES INTO CHAOS" 
THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (01/14): 
"PRESIDENT BUSH'S FATE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE FUTURE OF 
IRAQ. CAN THE SITUATION CHANGE AFTER THE ELECTIONS? NOTHING IS 
LESS CERTAIN. THE ELECTIONS COULD VERY WELL LEAD IRAQ TO 
PARTITION OR A CIVIL WAR. IN SHORT, IT IS A HOTBED OF 
INSTABILITY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH LOOKS AS IF IT 
IS VERY FAR FROM THE `VIRTUOUS DOMINO EFFECT' PROMOTED TWO 
YEARS AGO BY PRESIDENT BUSH. THESE ELECTIONS ARE AKIN TO THE 
LAST THROW OF THE DICE FOR THE U.S. PRESIDENT. ALTHOUGH HE 
STILL HOPES TO COME OUT THE WINNER, FOR THE TIME BEING 
PRESIDENT BUSH'S ACHIEVEMENTS IN IRAQ ARE CATASTROPHIC: A 
COUNTRY GIVEN TO BLOODSHED AND VIOLENCE, DAILY U.S. 
CASUALTIES, THREAT OF A CIVIL WAR, RE-ENFORCED TERRORIST 
GROUPS AND A DETERIORATING U.S. IMAGE. AFTER HAVING 
C O R R E C T E D COPY CHANGED PARA MARKING SO NOT TO 
                       CONFUSE WITH CLASSIFICATION 
ACKNOWLEDGED THE ABSENCE OF WMD IN IRAQ, THE BUSH 
ADMINISTRATION HAS NO MARGIN FOR ERROR LEFT. PRESIDENT BUSH 
HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO BRING IMPROVEMENT TO A REGION WHICH HAS 
BECOME A POWDER KEG." 
WORLD ORDER 
"FRANCE, THE 21ST CENTURY AND UNIVERSALISM" 
FORMER PM EDOUARD BALLADUR IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO 
(01/14): "TODAY'S INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS WERE CONCEIVED 
AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR BY THE WEST, WHICH IMPOSED ITS 
PRINCIPLES AND ITS PRACTICES. BUT TODAY OTHER NATIONS ARE 
EMERGING, CHINA, INDIA, BRAZIL, RUSSIA, IRAN. AND WANT TO FREE 
THEMSELVES FROM THIS POLITICAL AND MORAL DOMINATION. THE 
AMERICANS AND THEIR DESIRE TO ACT ALONE, WHERE AND WHEN THEY 
WANT LEADS THEM TO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STATES OF MIND AND 
THE BALANCE OF POWER. NO NATION, HOWEVER POWERFUL, CAN EXPECT 
TO RUN THE AFFAIRS OF THE WORLD BY ITSELF. OTHERS HAVE 
APPEARED ON THE SCENE WHO EXPECT TO BE RESPECTED. BECAUSE 
EVERYONE SHARES THE SAME PLANET, THE BEST IS TO DEFINE RULES 
FOR LIVING SIDE BY SIDE AND TO RESPECT THESE RULES. THE 
INTERNATIONAL MODEL HAS SHATTERED. ANOTHER ONE NEEDS TO BE 
INVENTED FOUNDED ON THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN THESE ENTITIES, 
AND BASED ON NEW WORLD RULES, WITH MORE AMBITIOUS GOALS BUT 
ALSO MORE RESPECTFUL OF THE OTHER. THE THREAT HOVERING ON THE 
WORLD IS THAT OF A CONFRONTATION BETWEEN CULTURES IN THE FORM 
OF CIVIL WARS AND INTERNATIONAL WARS. THE FATE OF THE WORLD IS 
AT STAKE. THE TIME HAS COME AND GONE WHEN THE WEST COULD EVEN 
THINK OF IMPOSING ITS MODEL ON OTHERS THROUGH FORCE. IT IS IN 
THE INTEREST OF THE WEST TO HELP POOR NATIONS TO ACHIEVE 
MODERNITY. BUT DEVELOPMENT ALONE WILL NOT HELP TO CURB 
TERRORISM. FRANCE CAN PLAY A ROLE AND SUPPORT THESE CHANGES. 
MEN AND NATIONS EVERYWHERE ASPIRE TO BE EQUAL BUT DIFFERENT. 
UNITY DOES NOT MEAN CONFORMITY. DIVERSITY IN NO WAY ENDANGERS 
THE UNITY OF A PEOPLE: BEFORE THE 18TH CENTURY FRANCE WAS A 
LIVING EXAMPLE OF THIS, TODAY IT IS THE U.S." LEACH