US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI135

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 000135 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Economics, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT CHARTER FLIGHTS, 
U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
1. Cross-Strait Charter Flights 
 
A) "Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait Seize the 
Opportunity to Break the Ice and Create a Win-Win 
Situation" 
 
Journalist Chu Chien-ling observed in the centrist, pro- 
status quo "China Times" (1/13): 
 
". Judging from the interactions [between the two sides 
of the Taiwan Strait] regarding charter flights for the 
Chinese New Year, the change of mainland China's 
position from insisting on only private-sector 
participation in the talks to allowing `technocrats' to 
join in the negotiations can be viewed as a concession. 
In addition, Beijing kept an open-minded attitude about 
the choice of venues for holding the talks.  If both 
sides of the Taiwan Strait can hold public and formal 
talks in places like Beijing that can attract media 
attention, the image that `both sides of the Taiwan 
Strait have resumed talks' - an image that the DPP 
hopes to achieve - will be able to be broadcast to the 
world and both sides can get what they need from such a 
win-win situation. 
 
"Also, even though Beijing has repeatedly stressed that 
the charter flights for the Chinese New Year is merely 
a `single case' and China has sought to avoid 
[building] the image that both sides of the Taiwan 
Strait have `resumed talks,' its recent attempt to 
create a friendly atmosphere across the Taiwan Strait 
is already very evident.  Its next step, without doubt, 
will be [to promote] cross-Strait charter cargo 
flights, followed by talks on the three links across 
the Taiwan Strait. .  As a result, why doesn't [Taiwan] 
regard the charter flights for the Chinese New Year as 
... [signifying] that Beijing intends to achieve 
breakthroughs in cross-Strait relations, rather than 
being just a `single case.'  This opportunity is 
closely linked to the following several opportunities, 
and only when the first is well handled will there be a 
second one. .  We can say that charter flights for the 
Chinese New Year is a minor matter, whereas how to 
control the atmosphere across the Taiwan Strait is 
probably of more importance." 
 
B) "Taiwan Government Facing a Dilemma about How to 
Respond to [China's Proposal Regarding] the Cross- 
Strait Charter Flights Plan" 
 
Journalist Sean Liu said in the conservative, pro- 
unification "United Daily News" (1/13): 
 
". Taiwan can of course recognize Beijing's intentions 
[regarding cross-Strait charter flights for the Chinese 
New Year], so it does not want to accept in one bite 
whatever is offered by China.  But the Taipei 
government is also clearly aware that if the charter 
flights plan for the Chinese New Year works, it can 
prove to the United States and other countries that 
President Chen is truly interested in pushing for 
reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait, a move that 
can thereby alleviate the international pressure 
triggered by [Taiwan's] referendum and name change 
plans.  The Taipei government is thus facing a dilemma 
about how to respond to China's `soft position' 
regarding the charter flights plan while retaining its 
[original] position on cross-Strait negotiations.  As a 
result, what appeared to the outside is that the Taipei 
government is now stuck at an impasse and dares not to 
face reality. 
 
"For Taiwan, if it accepts the negotiation model 
proposed by Beijing this time in order to facilitate 
the charter flights plan, will it say yes or no to 
Beijing if the latter requests later that the two sides 
of the Taiwan Strait adopt a similar model when it 
comes to talks on some major issues such as the three 
links?  However, given the general trend to facilitate 
cross-Strait charter flights, Taiwan cannot question 
Beijing in public now [or else it will] make itself the 
`troublemaker' that disrupts the plan." 
 
C) "The Ruling Party Owes Its Voters an Explanation 
about the Consequences of [Promoting] Cross-Strait 
Charter Flights for the Chinese New Year" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" editorialized 
(1/13): 
 
". In other words, the contents of the DPP government's 
negotiations with China regarding charter flights for 
the Chinese New Year have overlooked [Taiwan's] 
economic safety, national defense security and social 
order and have totally disregarded the Taiwan people's 
safety and well-being.  In addition, the contents have 
also violated relevant regulations governing the 
relations between people of the two sides of the Taiwan 
Strait and have belittled Taiwan's national integrity, 
dignity and status.  The cross-Strait charter flight 
plan for the Chinese New Year is about to kick off, and 
a mistake will be made.  We thus need to solemnly urge 
the DPP government to step on the brakes immediately, 
or once such a plan is implemented, direct 
transportation across the Taiwan Strait will soon 
follow and there will be no days of peace for Taiwan. 
The DPP government that has become the ruling party 
because of its voters' support should clearly explain 
to its voters its position." 
 
D) "Both the Ruling and Opposition Parties in Taiwan 
Lack Vigilance about China's `United Front' Tactics" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" editorialized 
(1/12): 
 
". China's plan to enact an anti-secession law is aimed 
at creating a legal basis for its [attempt to] use 
force against Taiwan.  Though China's reasoning on 
whether it should use force against the island lies in 
its [military] strength rather than the law, the 
enactment of such a law can indeed blur the views of 
the international community and create psychological 
pressure for some Taiwan people.  Taiwan and China are 
two independent sovereign states that do not belong to 
each other.  China's enactment of the anti-secession 
law will not only violate the tacit agreement of the 
international community that the status quo in the 
Taiwan Strait should be maintained, but will also 
trample on Taiwan's sovereignty and interfere with the 
Taiwan people's freedom of speech and freedom of 
thinking.  It is thus natural for the Taiwan people to 
express unanimously their strong doubts and opposition 
to such an unruly and reckless law. . 
 
". China is playing a [two-sided policy] toward Taiwan 
by using the `anti-secession law' as the stick and 
`charter flights for the Chinese New Year' as the 
carrot.  This fully reflects the vulnerability of 
Taiwan and the lack of vigilance of both the ruling and 
opposition parties toward China's `united front' and 
`armed conflict' tactics.  This, without doubt, is the 
biggest crisis to face Taiwan's existence." 
 
E) "China Launching a Dual Strategy" 
 
Lin Cheng-yi, Director of the Institute of European and 
American Studies at the Academia Sinica, said in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
(1/13): 
 
". China's creation of the anti-secession law shows 
that [Chinese President] Hu wants to take the 
initiative to restrain Taiwan from carrying out a plan 
to create a new constitution through a referendum next 
year.  China has been preparing the legislation for a 
long while, but claims that the proposed law is passive 
and defensive.  China is obviously trying to prevent 
not only formal Taiwan independence, but also US 
interference. 
 
"After hurting the feelings of the Taiwanese people 
with this strategic arrangement, a ray of hope over 
charter flights has appeared.  Unfortunately, Beijing's 
political maneuvering can be seen behind its goodwill. 
. 
 
"Although Taipei wants to strike back, it is under 
pressure from Washington.  But if no action is taken, 
this will be interpreted as tacit recognition of 
Beijing's action. 
 
"Taipei has purposely defined Beijing's move as an 
attempt to unilaterally change the status quo.  US 
President George W. Bush's government did not criticize 
Beijing for the proposed law, unlike its response to 
Taipei's holding of a so-called defensive referendum 
last year. 
 
"Ironically, Taipei now has to swallow the insult, 
accept the delayed charter flight plan designed by 
Beijing and study the proposed two-way direct flights 
between Taiwan an Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. 
Although Taipei is relatively passive at present, it 
should at least express its opinion on the planning of 
destinations for the flights.  That would be fair play. 
"The cross-strait situation seems hopeless and 
depressing at times.  But it is full of all kinds of 
possibilities and turning points.  Real peace is surely 
impossible.  But it is not easy for a war to break out 
either.  Both sides have to seize this opportunity and 
make every effort to boost the economy.  Besides, at 
least Taiwan, China and the US do have something in 
common: avoiding the use of force in the Strait. . 
 
"Despite a few methods proposed to improve cross-strait 
relations (such as negotiation mechanisms and 
convenient charter flights for passengers and cargo), 
there is still a very long way to go reach [sic] true 
reconciliation.  The charter flights give only minor 
relief in a situation of major tension.  Although they 
will have no significant impact on the overall 
framework, we hope that such tiny drips can in the end 
break this stone. ." 
 
2. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "Anti-secession Law Is a Big Landmine for Taipei- 
Washington-Beijing Ties" 
 
Institute for National Policy Research Executive 
Director Lo Chih-cheng noted in the pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily" (1/13): 
 
". In general, [China's] proposal of an anti-secession 
law likely indicates a change in China's strategic 
thinking.  Beijing had sought to issue its `May 17 
statement' before [President Chen's] May 20 [inaugural 
speech] and to promote the anti-secession law.  These 
two actions show that China attempted to change its 
attitude from being passive to pro-active and to adopt 
a strategy that sets a framework and draws a red line 
for the future cross-Strait situation.  The Beijing 
authorities have realized that the policy that it 
adopted during President Chen's first term in office to 
`listen to his words and watch his behaviors' has 
resulted in handing the ultimate responsibility of 
cross-Strait relations to the Chen Shui-bian 
administration and in the end, putting itself in an 
unfavorable and passive position.  A glimpse of the 
anti-secession law can show that Beijing is gradually 
adjusting its approach of `listening to [Chen's] words 
and watching [his] behavior' and taking back the final 
say in cross-Strait issues. 
 
"It is thus expected that during the future 
interactions between the two sides of the Taiwan 
Strait, Beijing will very likely adopt a preventive, or 
even a pre-emptive, approach in order to guide or lead 
the possible future direction of the cross-Strait 
situation. . 
 
"In short, China's promotion of the anti-secession law 
seems like a passive tactic, but what it is thinking 
actually is to pursue a proactive strategy; its way to 
change the de jure status quo in the Taiwan Strait can 
even turn out to be a provocative move.  Beijing 
claimed that the purpose of the anti-secession law is 
to stabilize the cross-Strait situation, but in 
reality, it is laying a big landmine in cross-Strait 
relations.  As China continues to promote the anti- 
secession law, whether it will be Taiwan, the United 
States, or even China itself that will step on the 
landmine is something that the international community 
must be mentally prepared for." 
 
B) "Two Governments, Three Rivals" 
 
Lin Cheng-yi, Research Fellow and Director of the 
Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi 
University, said in a commentary in the pro-status quo 
"China Times" (1/13): 
 
". After some surprise developments in Taiwan-U.S. 
relations, [Taiwan President] Chen Shui-bian probably 
faces President George W. Bush, the self-centered, 
stubborn and righteous U.S. leader, as a new opponent. 
That will add to Chen's short list of political rivals 
[that contains the names] Lien-Soong and Hu Jintao. . 
 
"In terms of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, any Taiwan 
leader can face the scenario with Taiwan confronting 
the two countries, as the United States and China have 
taken similar approaches in key issues.  As President 
Kennedy tactfully joined Mao Zedong in blocking Chiang 
Kai-shek's plan to retake Mainland China, President 
George W. Bush may cooperate with Hu Jintao in stopping 
Chen's attempt to sever Taiwan from China. . 
 
". The two governments across the Taiwan Strait have 
their own principals in major policies, but they both 
have showed signs of easing in minor issues and have 
relayed the message to the Bush administration that 
their governments can be flexible regarding cross- 
Strait relations.  Against such a background, a new 
cross-Strait concept that the United States should be 
regarded as a helper instead of an opponent has taken 
shape. 
 
"President Chen's worst scenario is to concurrently 
confront the opposition parties, China and the United 
States as enemies ..  To the United States and China, 
Taiwan is trying to change the status quo, which China 
has maintained.  The concept, which could be attributed 
to the success of China's propaganda, points out that 
Taiwan is walking a narrow road under the structure of 
two governments and three rivals." 
 
C) "Back U.S., Japan to Face PRC Threat" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
said in an editorial (1/12): 
 
". The rapid expansion of China's military clout is 
already causing serious imbalances in power in East 
Asia.  The PRC is already well on its way to gaining a 
military edge in the Taiwan Strait and clearly has 
ambitions to become the dominant military power in East 
Asia. 
 
"Whether the U.S. and Japan can join hands and 
effectively cooperate will be the decisive factor that 
will determine the stability of the Taiwan Strait and 
even East Asia as a whole. 
 
"While we applaud the participation of numerous Taiwan 
civic and social movement groups in world peace 
efforts, including the `Global Partnership for the 
Prevention of Armed Conflict,' we must note that 
Taiwan's 23 million people cannot yet afford to naively 
rely for their national security on the global peace 
movement, especially in the light of Beijing's proposed 
`anti-splittist' law which would provide a quasi-legal 
pretext for attacks on Taiwan. 
 
"Defensive weaponry, such as anti-missile missile 
systems, anti-submarine patrol aircraft and even some 
convention submarines are needed to ensure that PRC 
hardliners cannot enjoy full confidence in a military 
adventure and to give the defense forces of the U.S. 
and Japan and other allies and the world peace movement 
to act." 
 
D) "It's Time for a Peaceful Cross-Strait Settlement" 
 
Antonio Chiang, former deputy secretary-general of the 
National Security Council, wrote in the pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" (1/13): 
 
". The proposition of the anti-secession law is of 
course meant as a response to Taiwan's Referendum Law. 
The Referendum Law is an anti-unification law, and the 
anti-secession law is an anti-Taiwan independence law. 
The anti-unification legislation, however, is 
substantive, because the two sides of the Taiwan Strait 
are separated, while the anti-secession law is empty, 
since it supports that the current status quo is one of 
unity. . 
 
"Taiwan's geographical position decides various formal, 
substantive and spiritual unification-independence 
relationships, where unification encompasses 
independence and independence encompasses unification. 
Sometimes unification holds the upper hand, and 
sometimes independence does.  This is the realistic 
world where we must learn to coexist peacefully with 
China." 
 
PAAL