US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI59

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E AND INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 
TAGS: ASEC, MARR, PGOV, PINR, PREL, MOPS, DJ 
SUBJECT: RUMORED CHANGES IN DJIBOUTI'S TOP MILITARY BRASS 
 
 
Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita Ragsdale. 
For reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Sources told the Embassy Political Assistant 
that significant changes are expected in the country's top 
military commanders after Djibouti's presidential elections 
in April 2005. The projected changes include the retirement 
and replacement of Djibouti,s only two General Officers. 
Subsequently, the shake-up would affect several senior 
colonels, including the primary interlocutor for the U.S. 
military, Colonel Osman Nour Soubagleh. The current military 
hierarchy has been in place since 1993. END SUMMARY 
 
2. (C) Watchers of Djibouti,s military have long awaited the 
retirement of Generals Fathi Ahmed Houssein, Chief of 
Defense, and Zakaria Chiek Ibrahim, Chief of Staff. Both are 
long over due for retirement and it is widely thought that 
President Ismail Omar Guelleh will use the opportunity in 
creating his new government after the April 05 elections to 
ask both Generals to step down.  Front runners to replace the 
two Generals include (in rank order) Colonel Youssouf Kayad 
Guelleh, Deputy Chief of Staff, Colonel Houssein Djama 
Ibrahim, Commander of the Rapid Reaction Brigade, Colonel 
Osman Nour Soubagleh, Director of International Programs, 
Colonel Omar Bouh Goudadeh, Director of Human Resources, and 
Lieutenant Colonel Abdourahman Abdi Dembil, Commander of the 
Republican Guard and Defense Advisor to the President 
(currently in France attending War College). 
 
3. (C) Recently, Post's Political Assistant was told by a 
source that Lieutenant Colonel Abdourahman was to be named 
Chief of Defense and Colonel Omar Bouh would be named Chief 
of Staff. Additionally, Colonels Soubagleh, Kayad, and Djama 
would all receive attach positions out of the country; 
Soubagleh to the US, Kayad to France, and Djama to Ethiopia. 
Such a scenario, if played out, would likely be viewed as an 
attempt by President Guelleh to attain greater influence over 
the FAD. Col. Kayad is generally regarded as the most 
competent manager of the front runners Colonel Soubagleh is 
generally considered the best connected to the presidency. 
However, both are hampered by sub-clan affiliation. Colonels 
Bouh and Djama are connected to President Guelleh by 
marriage. 
 
4. (C) An additional position that could come into play post 
election is that of Minister of Defense. The current Minister 
of Defense, Ougoureh Kifleh Ahmed, is commonly viewed as 
incompetent and ineffective as Minister. However, as an Afar 
and leader of the rebellion from 1990-1998, he holds his 
position as part of a power sharing agreement that ended the 
armed campaign by the Afar. Although formerly a competent 
guerrilla fighter, his lack of sophistication and marginal 
administrative skills are seen by many senior officers in FAD 
as a hindrance to allowing the military from fully profiting 
from all the current attention given to them by the American 
and French governments. Because he is such a prominent Afar 
figure, Ougoureh,s replacement at MoD would most certainly 
have to be balanced with the appointment of an Afar to some 
other equally important and prestigious position. 
 
5. (C) COMMENT: How retirements and reassignments play out in 
the post election period will be most certainly influenced to 
some degree by personal attachments, clan affiliation, and 
historical loyalties. To the degree that individual 
competency plays a role will be a telling barometer of 
President Guelleh,s priorities and values. END COMMENT 
 
6. For INR/B: 
 
Soubagleh and Kayad are members of the Oudahgob sub-clan. 
 
Djama has a successful maritime transit company and is 
rumored to have recently declined a nomination as Djibouti's 
representative to the African Union's Peace and Security 
Council on grounds that he was being forced out of Djibouti. 
He has a reputation as ill-tempered. 
 
Bouh also owns a brick factory 
 
 
7. Khartoum minimize considered. 
RAGSDALE