US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI355

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000355 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: MEA UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK, DESPITE SLOW PACE 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 303 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt,  Reasons 1.5 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The Indian Foreign Ministry remains 
optimistic about Indo-Pak relations, despite slow progress in 
the recent round of the Composite Dialogue, MEA Joint 
Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran) Arun K Singh told 
 
SIPDIS 
PolCouns and Poloffs on January 12.  "The process has 
momentum," he argued, despite a lack of dramatic progress in 
the recent round.  He suggested that Islamabad's interest in 
CBMs via people-to-people exchanges was limited to Punjab, 
and observed that PM Aziz had been given the role of "bad 
cop" to Musharraf's "good cop" on Indo-Pak issues.  He 
insisted that setbacks, such as Pakistan's threat to bring 
the Baglihar Dam dispute to arbitration, lack of visible 
action against Kashmir-oriented terrorist infrastructure, and 
refusal to grant transit rights for Indian aid to Afghanistan 
(septel), "will not derail" the overall peace process.  He 
gave Islamabad partial credit for the decline in terrorist 
infiltration over the past few months, but emphasized that 
the GOP had taken no action against terrorist infrastructure 
or communications.  Singh pointed to a busy itinerary of 
bilateral meetings this spring, including FM Natwar Singh's 
February trip to Pakistan, and offered that the interruption 
in backchannel meetings following the death of NSA Dixit 
would be more than offset by the continuation of the 
Composite Dialogue and other bilateral meetings.  Commenting 
on the upcoming Pakistani cricket team's tour of India in 
February-April, he predicted that it would be a media and 
people-to-people success, but would not measure up to last 
year's groundbreaking Pakistan tour by the Indian team.  End 
Summary. 
 
MEA Upbeat from Top to Bottom 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran) 
Arun K Singh opened our January 12 discussion of New Delhi's 
relations with Islamabad by reporting that both FM Natwar 
Singh and FS Shaym Saran remained upbeat on the dialogue 
process.  The recent flare-up regarding the GOP's threat to 
bring the Baglihar Dam issue to arbitration (reftel) was 
"unhelpful, but would not derail the dialogue," Singh said, 
because "it has momentum." 
 
GOP Turning "People-to-People" into "Punjabi-to-Punjabi" 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
3.  (C) Singh downplayed Pakistani FM Kasuri's January 3 
proposal to open a new Indo-Pak border crossing near Ferozpur 
as aimed to benefit his own constituency, criticizing the GOP 
for only being interested in promoting "Punjabi-to-Punjabi" 
exchanges that are not replicated "for Sindh or elsewhere." 
He claimed that the Munnabao-Khokhrapar train connection 
would have been a done deal if it had connected the two 
Punjabs and not Sindh-Rajasthan.  Likewise, he insisted that 
Islamabad is the obstacle to opening the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus line, although he indicated that a 
deal on the bus should still be doable. 
 
MEA View of Pak Leadership: "Good Cop/Bad Cop" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (C) Describing the MEA's view of the GOP, Singh called 
the Indian media "obsessed with Pakistan, first Musharraf and 
then PM Aziz."  Musharraf is casting himself as more 
"reasonable" while Aziz, who "comes off as modern, 
professional, but hardline," now "plays hardball."  For 
example, the MEA saw Aziz as the driving force behind efforts 
to bring the Baglihar Dam dispute to arbitration, obstructing 
the linkage between trade normalization and the 
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline "that Musharraf and Manmohan 
Singh agreed to in New York," and placing Kashmir ahead of 
normalizing trade ties.  "They are playing good cop/bad cop," 
Singh concluded, while claiming that Aziz's personal and 
private views are much more accommodating than those of the 
Pakistani President. 
 
GOP Helping Curb Violence in Kashmir, but Not Camps 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
5.  (C) Turning to Kashmir, Singh cited two reasons for the 
"significant decline" in infiltration rates as reported by 
the GOI: "we are more organized" (i.e. the LOC fencing and 
better military preparations are working), and "Pakistan is 
also taking action."  That said, he pointed to the January 
7-8 suicide attack on a government building in Srinagar as 
evidence that terrorist groups maintain the capacity to 
execute dramatic attacks and that "the issue of camps and 
other infrastructure remains."  Singh then showed us an 
internal GOI paper on terrorist camps in Pakistan and 
Pakistani Kashmir (septel).  He noted that cross-border 
terrorist communications are undiminished, with ISI handlers 
exhorting their jihadist clients to fight on. 
 
6.  (C) The Indian journalists who traveled to Pakistani 
Kashmir November 19-December 1 gave "fairly reliable reports" 
of Kashmiri terrorists who "are tired and want to come back," 
Singh said.  Remarking on the difficulty of managing 
re-integration on a large scale, he added that the GOI 
nevertheless wanted them "back in the fold" and to help 
"evict the Punjabis and Pashtuns." 
 
Backchannel Dormant While Front Channel Races Ahead 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
7.  (C) Waving away press speculation about the state of the 
backchannel, Singh informed us that Pakistani NSA Tariq 
Aziz's recent visit to New Delhi was strictly a condolence 
call: "He saw only the FM, the PM, and Mrs. Dixit."  He 
called it "an important gesture," but underlined that nothing 
of substance was discussed. 
 
8.  (C) Turning to the slate of bilateral talks, Singh 
predicted that there would be "concrete outcomes" to announce 
by next summer's meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries, 
though he did not mention any specific agenda items as being 
ripe for agreement.  Singh recounted that the Composite 
Dialogue and technical talks would resume later in January 
and conclude when the Foreign Secretaries meet in July.  A 
Joint Study Group on trade, originally slated for January 
24-25, would be pushed back to around February 22-23 at the 
request of his Pakistani MFA counterpart D/G for South Asia 
Jalil Abbas Jilani, he said.  "The schedule of meetings is 
exhausting," Singh explained, with the next major event the 
FM visit to Pakistan (although the dates are still not firm). 
 
Spring in South Asia, When a Man's Fancy Turns to Cricket 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
9.  (C) Singh predicted that the Pakistan cricket team's 
February 25-April 18 India tour, though yet another positive 
and confidence-building development, would not make as big a 
splash as last year's Indian team in Pakistan.  "This is 
continuity now, not a new development," he explained. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) Even when discussing contentious issues such as 
Baglihar Dam and terrorism in Kashmir, Singh remained calm 
and measured throughout the conversation, expressing 
disappointment but not issuing blame.  In fact, his comment 
that "Pakistan is also taking action" against terrorist 
infiltration -- whether or not he firmly believes it -- is a 
noticeable break with the host of officials and pundits who 
credit the decline largely to the Army and the LOC fence. 
This presentation came off as much more than just an 
optimistic spin for US consumption, and suggests that the 
policy levels of the MEA are firm in supporting the peace 
process despite continuing violence and infiltration in 
Kashmir.  Singh did not let on to whether his prediction that 
"concrete progress" would be made in time for the July 
Foreign Secretaries' meeting was grounded in anticipation 
that New Delhi would yield on certain issues, belief that 
Islamabad would do so, or hope that the two sides would find 
some modus vivendi.  His focus on front-channel diplomacy may 
also reflect an MEA effort to ensure that the high level 
diplomacy conducted by late NSA Dixit is now moved firmly 
back to the hands of MEA's mandarins. 
MULFORD