US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN53

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT: KOCHARIAN SENDS CONGRATULATIONS TO NEW UKRAINIAN 
PRESIDENT -- AGAIN 
 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (U) The GOAM announced January 11 that President Robert 
Kocharian sent a congratulatory message to Ukrainian 
President-elect Viktor Yushchenko.  The news sparked a flurry 
of media reports about Armenia-Ukraine-Russia relations and 
re-ignited discussion on the applicability of recent events 
in Ukraine and Georgia in the current Armenian political 
theater.  The congratulatory letter was reportedly almost 
identical to the message Kocharian had sent to Ukrainian 
Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich following the November 21 
round of voting.  Reports were quick to remind that the GOAM 
was the only Council of Europe country, other than Russia, to 
have recognized Yanukovich as the victor in the November 2004 
election.  GOAM officials once again defended Kocharian on 
his handling of the issue, saying the decision to recognize 
Yanukovich relied on cues of Ukraine's Central Election 
Commission and denied that the move was simply an attempt to 
please Moscow by supporting the pro-Russia candidate.  End 
summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
SAME LETTER, DIFFERENT ADDRESSEE 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The GOAM announced January 11 that President Robert 
Kocharian sent a congratulatory message to Ukrainian 
President-elect Viktor Yushchenko.  The text of the letter 
included standard language and a call for strengthening of 
relations between the two countries.  Most of the Armenia's 
press smirkingly noted that the congratulatory letter was 
almost identical to the message Kocharian had sent to 
Ukrainian Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich following the 
November 21 round of voting. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
KOCHARIAN - HEEDING THE CEC OR CUES FROM MOSCOW? 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3. (C) News reports seized on the latest Kocharian letter as 
an opportunity to remind the public that the GOAM was the 
only Council of Europe country, other than Russia, to have 
recognized Yanukovich as the victor of the November 2004 
election.  Opposition newspapers again suggested that 
Kocharian's decision to recognize Yushchenko was a move to 
please official Moscow by quickly supporting the pro-Russia 
candidate.  GOAM officials once again defended Kocharian, 
however, saying his November decision was based on 
information received from Ukraine's Central Election 
Commission and not a political move.  (Note:  GOAM insiders 
told us that Kocharian's rush to congratulate Yanukovich was 
prompted by an urgent personal appeal from Russia's former 
Prime Minister and Ambassador in Kiev, Viktor Chernomyrdin. 
End Note.) 
 
---------------------------------- 
COMMENT:  YEREVAN IS STILL NO KIEV 
---------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The news of Kocharian's congratulations of Yushchenko 
sparked a flurry of media reports about 
Armenia-Ukraine-Russia relations and re-ignited discussion on 
the applicability of recent events in Ukraine and Georgia in 
the current Armenian political theater.  Local commentators 
(and some media outlets abroad) are quick to draw parallels 
between recent events in Ukraine and Georgia and the 
political environment in Armenia.  But Yerevan is neither 
Tbilisi nor Kiev, and drastic political change is unlikely in 
the near future.  While Armenian opposition leaders like to 
think that the public is still outraged over electoral fraud 
during Armenia's 2003 presidential and parliamentary 
elections, the mood is nowhere near as electric as it was 
immediately following the election or during the much-touted 
"Hot Spring" rallies of April 2004.  The key difference 
remains the absence of a single opposition leader with enough 
charisma, popular support or an easy-to-understand agenda to 
unite party leaders in opposing the current government. 
EVANS