US embassy cable - 05RANGOON60

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000060 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, BM, NLD, ASSK 
SUBJECT: NLD: "WE HAVE LOST CONTACT WITH ASSK" 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 20 
     B. 04 RANGOON 1612 AND PREVIOUS 
     C. 04 RANGOON 1591 AND PREVIOUS 
     D. 04 RANGOON 1563 
     E. 04 RANGOON 1647 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  As a result of the regime's increasing 
restrictions on Aung San Suu Kyi, NLD party leaders report 
they now have "absolutely no contact" with the detained 
democracy leader.  Nothing would indicate ASSK is facing 
imminent danger.  However, the NLD's information is troubling 
in that the party cannot assess her well-being and has no 
ability to consult with her on strategy, a further blow to 
the pro-democracy movement.  Meanwhile the regime announced 
that the National Convention will reconvene on February 17, 
but has failed to communicate with the NLD or respond 
directly to the party's December letter to Chairman Than 
Shwe.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) On January 13, P/E chief and Poloff called on NLD CEC 
members, including Chairman U Aung Shwe and Secretary U Lwin, 
to discuss recent developments.   U Aung Shwe said that party 
leaders no longer have any means to communicate with Aung San 
Suu Kyi at her University Avenue compound, where she remains 
under house arrest.  Under new arrangements imposed by GOB 
authorities in late December 2004 (ref B), ASSK's two 
household companions are prohibited from departing the 
compound to purchase food and other supplies (designated ASSK 
supporters are allowed to deliver provisions to an on-site 
Special Branch (SB) officer, but are not allowed to 
communicate with the compound residents). 
 
3. (C) Furthermore, U Aung Shwe said that the NLD had learned 
that ASSK's personal physician, whose access to ASSK was 
recently reduced from daily to weekly visits (ref C), is now 
further limited to only one visit per month. (Note: 
Information about the physician's access is difficult to 
verify as he is no longer permitted to meet with NLD leaders 
or with foreign diplomats.  End Note.)  "We now have 
absolutely no contact with ASSK," said U Aung Shwe, "and we 
remain concerned about her, particularly her health." 
According to mid-level NLD sources, the physician most 
recently visited ASSK o/a January 6, but was then hauled in 
for questioning by SB officers over the weekend of January 
8-9. 
 
4. (C) On a separate issue, we noted that the SPDC had 
announced that it intends to reconvene the National 
Convention (NC) on February 17.  U Lwin said that the NLD had 
received no direct overtures from the regime on any matter, 
including either the NC or a December NLD letter to Chairman 
Than Shwe (ref D).  U Lwin observed that the political 
situation remains in a status quo:  the SPDC intends to plow 
ahead without the NLD (or the pro-democracy ethnic parties) 
and secure a new constitution that enshrines a preeminent 
governing role for the military.  He added that the only 
unresolved component in the NC process remains whether the 
ethnic cease-fire groups (CFGs) agree to participate and sign 
off on a new constitution. 
 
5. (C) Comment: We have no information that would indicate 
that ASSK is facing any imminent danger or increased risk. 
We have made it abundantly clear to the GOB that the regime 
is solely responsible for her safety and security, most 
recently with the Home Minister in December (ref E). 
However, the NLD's information that ASSK is now facing even 
tighter restrictions is troubling.  In addition to irregular 
and unreliable information about her well-being, the party 
does not at the moment have the ability to consult with her 
about party strategy and pertinent developments, a severe 
blow to the pro-democracy movement which relies on her 
leadership and decisions.  As for the National Convention and 
the cease-fire groups, we believe it is highly probable that 
the SPDC announced a date to reconvene with a clear 
indication that at least the major CFGs intend to return to 
the table.  End Comment. 
Martinez