US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM57

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: 1/11/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TZ 
SUBJECT: Mkapa's New Year's Greeting Warns Diplomats 
on Electoral Assistance 
 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.5(b) 
 
REF: A)04 Dar es Salaam 2602, B)04 Dar es Salaam 2600 
C)04 Dar es Salaam 2341, D) 04 Dar es Salaam 1935 
 
1. (C) Summary: At his traditional New Year Sherry 
party for the diplomatic community, President Mkapa 
briefly outlined a list of development programs and 
regional international initiatives, but Tanzania's 
upcoming elections were the real highlight of this 
year's speech.  In an apparent effort to pre-empt any 
international criticism of next October's elections, 
President Mkapa asserted that last year's local 
elections were successful and demonstrated 
overwhelming popular support for the ruling CCM party. 
Echoing remarks Zanzibari President Karume had made 
days earlier, Mkapa voiced what appears to be the new 
CCM party line: that foreign donors should not assume 
the CCM has to cheat to win the 2005 general 
elections.  End summary 
 
Development and Diplomatic Priorities 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The President's sherry party, held this year on 
January 7, is an annual tradition in which the 
President informs assembled Ambassadors of Tanzania's 
development priorities and international initiatives. 
The 2005 speech began on a somber note, as President 
Mkapa asked attendees to observe a moment of silence 
to commemorate victims of the tsunami disaster.  Mkapa 
called for the establishment of a tsunami early 
warning system for the Indian Ocean. 
 
3.(U) During 2005, President Mkapa said Tanzania would 
consolidate its economic reforms and strengthen public 
institutions.  The focus would be on investing in 
infrastructure such as roads and bridges, and on 
addressing the special needs of the large informal 
sector.  President Mkapa thanked the Norwegian 
government in particular for its assistance in 
implementing the Property and Business Formalization 
Program.  Health and education programs also got a 
mention.  President Mkapa said that the Tanzanian 
Government would focus on its HIV/AIDS Care and 
Treatment Plan for 2005.  He thanked the Clinton 
Foundation, President Bush's Emergency Plan for AIDS 
Relief and the Global Fund for their assistance. 
 
4. (U) President Mkapa also briefly outlined 
Tanzania's foreign policy priorities for the coming 
year.  He reiterated Tanzania's commitment to 
deepening regional integration through both SADC and 
the EAC.  He voiced Tanzania's support of various 
peace processes.  He opined that the Dar es Salaam 
Declaration was the best foundation for peace in the 
Great Lakes region, and he lamented that the ink on 
the agreement had barely dried before tensions 
escalated between Rwanda and the DRC.  Mkapa welcomed 
the peace agreement between the Sudanese government 
and the SPLM, and called for the international 
community to meet the challenge of resolving the 
conflict and providing humanitarian assistance in 
Darfur.  Perhaps as a gesture toward the Palestinian 
ambassador, who is the doyen, Mkapa eulogized Yasser 
Arafat with some eloquence and at some length, and 
said that Tanzania's thoughts and prayers would be 
with the Palestinian people as they elected a leader 
who "will take forward . . .the peaceful struggle for 
an independent, stable and secure Palestine coexisting 
peacefully with the State of Israel."  President Mkapa 
concluded by thanking all countries for their 
overwhelming support for Tanzania's candidacy for the 
Security Council. 
 
An Election Year Warning 
------------------------ 
 
5. (C) Mkapa's speech will be most remembered, 
however, for its focus on the general elections, now 
set for October 30, 2005.  While he emphasized his 
support for ongoing electoral reforms, Mkapa also 
attempted to pre-empt foreign criticism of the coming 
year's campaign by declaring that the ruling CCM party 
was strong, popular, and did not have to cheat to win 
elections.  Mkapa said that the November 2004 local 
elections demonstrated Tanzania's commitment to 
developing democratic leadership at the grassroots 
level, and that the elections generated "unprecedented 
interest and passion."  (Comment: This 
characterization of the local elections might have 
surprised some of the assembled diplomats who had 
observed low voter turn-out, poor organization and 
short tempers at many the urban polling places.  See 
reftel B.)  President Mkapa noted that 350,000 
elective positions, all on the Tanzanian mainland, 
were contested in the local elections.  While returns 
from a few of the more remote areas were still 
trickling in almost two months after the elections, 
the overall results of the elections had just been 
compiled.  President Mkapa reported an astounding 
tally for the CCM:  96.6 percent of the vote went to 
ruling party candidates; with the CUF party in second 
place with 1.49 percent of the votes on the Tanzanian 
mainland.  The remaining sixteen registered political 
parties each received less than one percent of the 
vote. 
 
6. (U) Mkapa reiterated his support for political 
reforms during the nine years of his administration, 
and said he would consolidate those reforms during his 
final year in office.   He gave a nod to the "spirit 
of the Muafaka," the bipartisan agreement between the 
CCM and the CUF that mandates electoral reforms on 
polarized Zanzibar.  Mkapa called for efforts to 
strengthen political institutions and for a binding 
code of political conduct to guide partisan behavior 
during the campaign and voting. 
 
The New CCM Party Line 
---------------------- 
 
7.(C) Although his speech touched on strengthening 
democratic institutions, Mkapa clearly is placing most 
of his energy into strengthening the ruling CCM party. 
In an implied warning to the assembled diplomats, he 
said "I strongly discourage the notion that if CCM 
wins, it has rigged the elections . . .CCM is very 
strong.  We do not need to rig.  We have more to gain 
by winning peacefully, fairly and squarely." 
 
8. (U) Mkapa's remarks appear to be the final 
confirmation of CCM's new party line.  Mkapa's speech 
echoed the sentiments voiced by Zanzibari President 
Karume just a few days earlier, when Karume 
inaugurated the new headquarters for the Zanzibar 
Electoral Commission (ZEC).  On that occasion, Karume 
decried foreign "meddling," saying that some foreign 
observers believe an election is free and fair only if 
an opposition party wins it.  Karume had also 
reiterated the discredited accusation that one British 
diplomat had observed voter registration on Pemba 
without the knowledge of the ZEC or the Zanzibar 
government.  (In fact, a half-dozen diplomatic 
missions, including the US Embassy, sent observers at 
the invitation of the ZEC and the Foreign Ministry. 
Please see Reftels A and C).  Karume also advised 
foreign donors (rather unnecessarily) to look at other 
issues, and not only elections. 
 
The Diplomats Take the Measure of the CCM 
----------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Diplomats sipping sherry on the Statehouse 
terrace after the speech had an opportunity to 
exchange views on the remarks of both Presidents, and 
to speculate what they meant for the CCM's election 
campaign.  Diplomats representing the Basket Group 
that had funded the renovation of the ZEC headquarters 
described an uncomfortable situation at the 
inauguration.  Karume had made his unhelpful remarks 
in Swahili, frequently directed an unsmiling gaze 
toward the assembled donors, who only partially 
understood him.  According to some of the diplomats 
who had been present, Karume never even thanked them 
for the building.  The Dutch Ambassador speculated 
that Karume had been misinformed about the diplomatic 
group that had observed voter registration; or perhaps 
Zanzibar government officials were miffed by the way 
the invitations had been issued.  (The Foreign 
Ministry of the Union Government had issued the 
invitations to embassies on behalf of the ZEC.) 
UNDP Country Representative John Hendra observed that 
voter registration was going well nationwide, 
notwithstanding the ritualized hand-wringing over 
foreign observers.  Over 90% of potential voters had 
registered in most districts on the mainland.  On 
Zanzibar, registration teams finished on schedule in 
southern Pemba, then moved to the north.  These teams 
have been registering just under 90% of potential 
voters in most districts, and the violent 
confrontations of the early days of voter registration 
have not been repeated. 
 
10. (C)  Comment: Mkapa's New Year's speech indicates 
the diplomatic community can generally expect more of 
the same from Tanzania's international relations in 
2005.  The Foreign Ministry, short on staff and often 
overwhelmed, will continue to work mostly through 
international organizations and will follow the 
regional consensus, rather than take the initiative on 
most issues.  The Tanzanian Government, heavily 
dependent on foreign assistance, will continue to 
welcome cooperation with donors on various long-term 
assistance projects.  Electoral assistance, however, 
is proving to be the major exception:  Mkapa's speech 
represents a clear effort to set election-year limits 
on outside assistance and advice. 
 
11. (C) Comment continued:  The CCM's sweep of 96.6% 
of the vote in a field of 17 competitors indicates the 
strength of the ruling party; but it also indicates 
the continuing weakness of multiparty democracy on the 
Tanzanian mainland.  Only on Zanzibar, where the 
opposition CUF is strong, are there prospects for real 
electoral competition in 2005.  The donor community 
has tended to see President Mkapa as an ally in the 
effort to strengthen Tanzanian democratic 
institutions, and to help Zanzibar overcome its 
history of electoral conflict.  Donors believed Mkapa 
was concerned about his legacy, interested in 
promoting a strong democratic transition  nd capable 
of reining in embattled CCM hardliners on Zanzibar and 
preventing their worst excesses.  With his January 7 
speech, however, President Mkapa indicated that he 
would be a CCM partisan first, and a small-d democrat 
second.  Mkapa seems more inclined to support 
hardliners like Karume, rather than rein them in. 
This first week of the New Year opened with a rather 
discouraging display of CCM party solidarity. End 
Comment. 
 
Owen