US embassy cable - 05AMMAN293

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ASEC, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQ ELECTIONS - DEVELOPMENTS IN JORDAN 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 00185 
 
     B. AMMAN 00150 
     C. 04 AMMAN 09898 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU) The GOJ publicly rejected a non-binding 
parliamentary resolution against Iraqi campaigning and voting 
in Jordan.  King Abdullah and senior Jordanian officials 
continue to issue strong statements in support of the January 
30 elections despite protests from the Islamic Action Front 
and its allies.  The out-of-country voting program in Jordan 
run by the IOM is reportedly on schedule to start 
registration January 17 for up to 200,000 eligible Iraqis. 
Voter outreach efforts, including television ads, are 
underway, but may be lagging.  A two-person team from the 
International Mission for the Iraqi Elections (IMIE) has 
established its local office, but seems focused on future 
elections to come after the January 30 polling.  End summary. 
 
 
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GOJ STANDS FIRM AGAINST CRITICS OF IRAQI ELECTIONS 
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2.  (U) Opposition elements in Jordan, led by the Islamic 
Action Front (IAF) and the highly-politicized professional 
associations, have expressed strong disapproval of the 
elections in Iraq scheduled for January 30.  On January 9 the 
IAF attacked the results of the January 6 Iraq neighbors' 
conference in Amman (ref A), charging that the conference 
communiqu only served to further the illegitimate U.S. 
occupation of Iraq.  The statement called on Arab governments 
to stop all cooperation with the Iraqi Interim Government and 
to support the Iraqi "resistance" which, it alleged, was 
representative of the Iraqi people.  The IAF expressed its 
appreciation for the non-binding resolution passed by the 
Jordanian parliament opposing the placement of banners and 
posters encouraging Iraqis in Jordan to register to vote in 
the elections (ref B).  Jordan's professional associations, a 
close ally of the IAF on many issues, added their voice by 
sponsoring a non-violent rally January 9 condemning U.S. 
alleged atrocities in Iraq and praising the "heroic forces of 
resistance" in Fallujah. 
 
3.  (U) On January 10 Government Spokesperson Asma Khader 
rejected Parliament's complaints about electoral campaigning 
for Iraqis.  While noting that the government "respects 
deputies' points of view," Khader stated that there were no 
legal grounds to ban the voter registration media campaign. 
She further noted that the upcoming Iraqi elections were "a 
very important step" in the reconstruction of Iraq and that 
preservation of Iraq's national unity required "participation 
of all Iraqi people in the elections."  During a December 
2004 interview with the press, Khader had stressed that 
Jordan backed all efforts to hold Iraqi elections on time. 
 
4.  (U) King Abdullah and other Jordanian leaders have 
repeatedly and publicly affirmed Jordan's endorsement of the 
January 30 elections while encouraging all Iraqis to vote. 
For example, the press quoted the King telling Iraq's 
neighboring foreign ministers during the January 6 Amman 
conference that the elections "are the embodiment of the 
Iraqis' will in determining their future."  In an interview 
with a Kuwaiti daily early this month, the King highlighted 
the need for all Iraqis to participate in the elections and 
denied charges that he was anti-Shia.  Foreign Minister 
al-Mulki, after meeting with visiting EU High Representative 
Javier Solana, told the press January 9 that Jordan was fully 
supportive of the upcoming elections, saying they were 
necessary to build a free and democratic Iraq.  Mulki earlier 
gave an interview to Al-Quds Al-Arabi, reprinted in the local 
press, that emphasized strongly the importance of the Iraqi 
elections and the need for every Iraqi, especially the 
Sunnis, to take part in them.  Most recently, Prime Minister 
al-Fayez, during a visit to Saudi Arabia on January 11, 
publicly renewed Jordan's call for all Iraqis to cast ballots 
in the January 30 elections. 
 
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REACHING OUT TO IRAQI VOTERS 
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5.  (SBU) Richard Scott, project manager for the 
out-of-country (OCV) program run by the International 
Organization for Migration (IOM), confirmed to PolOff January 
11 that Iraqi voter registration in Jordan is on schedule for 
January 17-23.  Scott said that according to IOM estimates, 
there are roughly 200,000 eligible Iraqi voters in Jordan. 
Jordan has the second-largest population of eligible Iraqis, 
after Syria.  He expressed confidence that registration 
centers would accommodate possible crowds, but admitted that 
"if they all decide to show up on the 23rd, we're going to 
have a problem." 
6.  (SBU) In a separate conversation, OCV external relations 
director Monique Degroot told PolOff that television 
advertisements on voter registration began running January 8 
to complement radio ads that started December 20.  In 
addition to Jordan TV, she said ads are being broadcast on 
satellite networks (to include channels such as MBC, LBC, and 
Al Arabiya) in order to reach Iraqis residing in all 
countries that will participate in the OCV program.  Degroot 
said that the IOM has sponsored several informational 
meetings in east Amman for the Iraqi community in Jordan, but 
that they were unable to distribute the list of candidates as 
they had not yet received the names from the Independent 
Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI). 
 
7.  (C) When asked about voter awareness among local Iraqis, 
Abdul al-Malki of the Iraqi Embassy in Amman told PolOff 
January 11 that he had not seen or heard any radio or TV ads 
on the voting process.  He elaborated that Iraqis in Jordan 
were flooding the Embassy with phone inquiries on candidates 
and registration procedures and locations.  Malki privately 
questioned whether there was sufficient time to reach and 
educate potential voters so as to help ensure a solid 
turnout. 
 
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IMIE ON THE GROUND IN AMMAN 
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8.  (SBU) EmbOffs paid a visit January 11 to the new IMIE 
secretariat in Jordan, currently staffed by two independent 
 
SIPDIS 
Canadian election consultants.  Grant Kippen, the lead 
consultant, said that since arriving in Amman on January 7, 
he and his colleague had been setting up an office (an Amman 
hotel room) and contacting diplomatic missions and NGOs.  He 
explained that the IMIE's mandate was still not completely 
defined; they were "flying by the seat of our pants."  Kippen 
said that the IMIE currently envisioned a limited assessment 
operation designed to provide recommendations for later Iraqi 
elections to follow the January 30 polling, rather than a 
large-scale monitoring mission that would "judge" the 
election outcome.  According to Kippen, the IMIE hoped to 
find and hire "a few" experienced international election 
consultants to lead IMIE activities in Iraq, though he added 
that security conditions could make this difficult.  The IMIE 
additionally plans to recruit local hires in each of the 
countries where out-of-country voting will take place to look 
at registration procedures and polling outside Iraq. 
 
9.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
HALE