US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT213

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000213 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KU, IR, IZ 
SUBJECT: SHIITE POLITICAL SCIENTIST: IRAN NOT TRYING TO 
ESTABLISH ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN IRAQ 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Liberal Shiite and Kuwait University 
Political Science Chairman Professor Abdull Redha Assiri 
shared his thoughts on Iran with Poloffs during a January 11 
meeting.  Assiri, who travels often to Iran, said Kuwait and 
Iran maintain good relations and predicted that Iran -- 
already active in the region -- would become the "balancer" 
should there be any future conflict between Kuwait and Iraq. 
On Iraq, Assiri said both Iran and the Iraqi Shiite community 
recognize the "impossibility" of establishing an Islamic 
Republic there.  End Summary. 
 
Kuwaiti-Iranian Relations Good 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Kuwait University Political Science Chairman Professor 
Abdull Redha Assiri told Poloffs January 11 that the state of 
Kuwaiti-Iranian relations is generally good, and that Kuwait 
and Egypt share the best reputations amongst Arab countries 
in Iran.  Although Kuwaitis and Iranians do a brisk trade in 
many legitimate goods, he said, Iran is known in Kuwait as a 
transshipment point for smuggled goods and drugs. 
 
Iranian Regional Policy 
----------------------- 
 
3. (C) Assiri said Iranians are generally businesslike and 
rhetoric notwithstanding, approach their regional policy in 
the same manner. He noted that Iran had been "positively 
neutral" during the liberation of Kuwait, turning a blind eye 
to U.S. violations of their airspace while at the same time 
accepting fleeing Iraqi aircraft.  He asserted that in the 
event that Kuwait and Iraq have some sort of future conflict, 
Iran would act as a "balancer," just as it had during the 
Iraqi occupation, when it threatened to take Failaka Island 
if Arab states did nothing to restore Kuwaiti sovereignty. 
 
Iranian Involvement in Iraq 
--------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Turning to Iranian involvement in Iraq, Assiri said 
Iran recognizes, as does the Iraqi Shi'a population, that 
conditions in Iraq will not allow for the implementation of 
an Islamic Republic; accordingly, Iran is not engaged in 
trying to establish one there.  Rather, Assiri said that Iran 
is involved in Iraq only insofar as it views itself as the 
"guardians of Islam" and a neighbor. (Note: This contradicts 
what Sunni GOK officials have told Emboffs.  End Note.) 
 
 
Internal Policy: A Multi-Headed Dragon Dogged by Poverty 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5. (C) On Iranian internal politics, Assiri said that 
nationalism and religion were the two major political 
currents driving events inside the country.  Although he 
described the current environment as one in which "politics 
is made in Qom and exported to Tehran" and every small town 
contains an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force (IRGC) element, 
he said that major changes were afoot which would steadily 
decrease the influence of hardline clerics in the country. 
Chief among these, he said, was the poor state of the economy. 
 
6. (C) Assiri said the average Iranian leaves their home for 
work at 6 AM and doesn't return until midnight, six days a 
week.  During this period, he said, they go to a main job 
which pays a monthly salary of 80,000 to 100,000 Toman (USD 
90-120), then leave this job to go to as many as three more, 
where the combined monthly salary is another 80,000 to 
100,000 Toman.  In a country where the collective resource 
wealth should be the foundation of a strong economy, this 
hard life, he said, is taking its toll on a population whose 
majority has no recollection of the Revolution.  Assiri 
predicted that poor economic conditions in Iran would 
eventually lead to the downfall of the current hardline 
regime; for now, they are instrumental in the decreasing 
influence of the thoughts of Ayatollah Khomeini. 
 
7. (C) Assiri took the opportuntiy to suggest that the U.S. 
unfreeze assets to reach out to Iranian moderates. 
 
8. (C) Comment: Assiri is a well-regarded strategic thinker 
and visits Iran often enough to be able to provide reliable 
commentary on Iranian policy.  As with most of post's Shiite 
contacts, and despite having no love for the Iranian regime, 
Assiri downplays the influence of Iranian state actors in 
Iraq. His assertion that Iran cannot successfully export the 
concept of velayat e faqih to Iraq is accurate; his belief 
that they are not trying to may be naive. 
 
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LEBARON