US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI301

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 
TAGS: PINR, PINS, PREL, PGOV, IN, PK, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: AFTER DIXIT, INDIA PONDERS ROLE OF ITS NSA AND WHO 
WILL GET THE JOB 
 
REF: 04 CHENNAI 575 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake,  Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Two questions now swirl around India's 
National Security Advisor position: will it lose its major 
role in the Indian foreign policy establishment, and who will 
land the job permanently?  JN Dixit's death has prompted 
media speculation that PM Manmohan Singh is reassessing what 
he wants from his next NSA and how the NSA system should 
function.  This has led Indian strategic commentators to 
posit that the NSC structure may be reinvigorated as the 
Congress Party pledged during last year's election campaign. 
That structural issue notwithstanding, Special Adviser to PM 
Singh and Acting NSA MK Narayanan clearly has the inside 
track to succeed Dixit, based on proximity and personal 
relations with Mrs. Gandhi, but there are also other serious 
contenders.  This cable provides biographic information on 
Narayanan.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) JN Dixit's untimely death on January 3 has set the 
stage for changes in the NSA position and the NSC system that 
were predicted but never came to fruition after last May's 
change of government.  According to numerous well informed 
press accounts and non-government contacts, the PMO is 
treating Dixit's death as an opportunity to re-evaluate and 
perhaps re-engineer the national security architecture at a 
time of relative quiet in India-Pakistan relations and Indian 
foreign policy generally.  The loss of the incumbent NSA, and 
his interim replacement with a seasoned bureaucrat who 
already has a good working relationship with the PM, gives 
the GOI breathing space to tweak the NSA/NSC system, and 
Indian strategic thinkers have been quick to suggest changes. 
 
The Next NSA: Less Adviser, More Chairman? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) The buzz surrounding PM Singh's decision to rethink 
what the NSA and NSC should do -- irrespective of who holds 
the post -- is based on the 2004 Congress Party election 
platform pledge to make the NSC "a professional and effective 
institution."  This in turn was a dig at Brajesh Mishra's 
role as the power behind Vajpayee on a broad range of 
political and foreign policy matters.  Structural changes 
were predicted after Congress came to power last May, but 
faded quickly from the agenda following Dixit's rapid 
occupation of the same "super minister" role played by his 
predecessor.  Speculation lingers around a partial shift in 
the NSA's work balance away from its current advisory role 
toward greater management of the NSC as an organization.  Any 
substantial redefinition of the position would probably take 
some time (and a measure of conscious self-restraint by the 
incumbent).  However, the current calm in Indo-Pak relations 
and the presence of an experienced hand as Acting NSA will 
provide breathing space to do so. 
 
4.  (C) The eminence grise of Indian strategic thinkers, K 
Subramanyam, has been arguing that India needs an NSA at the 
helm of a fully functioning NSC dedicated to addressing 
India's strategic needs, as originally mandated.  In a series 
of essays, he has argued for the NSA to play this role, 
rather than being the PM's point-man on the foreign affairs 
issues of the day, as the position became when Mishra and 
Dixit held it.  "Indian Express" strategic affairs editor 
Jasjit Singh has observed that much of Mishra's authority 
grew out of his other role as Principal Secretary to the PM, 
which removed the impetus to create a durable NSC that 
remains absent to this day.  "Hindustan Times" foreign 
affairs correspondent and National Security Advisory Board 
(NSAB) member Manoj Joshi wrote recently that PM Singh's 
reassessment would provide an opportunity to split the NSA 
away from dealing with Islamabad, most notably through the 
back-channel with Pakistan's NSA Tariq Aziz, and to put this 
issue "back where it belongs" -- in the Foreign Ministry.  A 
January 6 "Times of India" news report speculated that the 
internal and external security elements of the NSA position 
might be bifurcated. 
5.  (C) Redefining the NSA as the active NSC chair also poses 
a geographical problem if it is to remain in the forefront of 
GOI policymaking.  Mishra and Dixit sat in the PMO, down the 
hall from the MEA, which kept them firmly in the loop on 
foreign policy decisionmaking.  The NSC staff, in contrast, 
works out of a decrepit building on the other side of town, 
far from the corridors of influence.  For now, this location 
symbolizes the NSC's marginal role in Indian foreign 
policymaking. 
 
Narayanan Has the Edge 
---------------------- 
 
6.  (C) By most accounts, PM Singh,s Special Advisor MK 
("Mike") Narayanan, who became Acting National Security 
Advisor on January 4 after Dixit's death, has the inside 
track to become his permanent replacement.  Narayanan brings 
over four decades of experience in the Indian intelligence 
community, and as a long-time Gandhi family loyalist is seen 
as part of the traditional "coterie" around Congress Party 
President Sonia Gandhi. 
 
7.  (C) That said, the Indian media has been awash with the 
names of other NSA aspirants, many of whom possess far 
stronger foreign policy credentials than Narayanan.  This 
list includes (based on diplomatic and media gossip): 
-- Former Cabinet and Defense Secretary and Ambassador to 
Washington Naresh Chandra 
-- Gandhi family confidant and Ambassador to the US Ronen Sen 
-- Former High Commissioner to Pakistan and Rajiv Gandhi PMO 
veteran G Parthasarthy 
-- Former Foreign Secretary and recently-appointed Arunachal 
Pradesh Governor SK Singh 
-- Former Foreign Secretary and Indo-Pak Track II activist 
Salman Haidar 
-- Former Ambassador, Afghan Coordinator and National 
Security Advisory Board Convenor SK Lambah 
-- Former Ambassador to China Chandrashekhar Dasgupta 
-- Former Foreign Secretary MK Rasgotra 
-- Former Foreign Secretary K Ragunath 
-- Former Foreign Secretary Muchkund Dubey 
-- Former Defense and Home Secretary and Kashmir Interlocutor 
NN Vohra 
-- Former Ambassador Lalit Mansingh 
 
The Indian press has been quick to handicap the "contenders," 
many of whom have been promoting their own suitability.  For 
example, Sen arrived recently in Washington; Haider is 
considered too dovish for this post; and Lambah and Dasgupta 
are seen as political "light-weights." 
 
He's No Dixit 
------------- 
 
8.  (C) Unlike Dixit and Mishra, Narayanan is not a former 
Foreign Service Officer, and has not served overseas in any 
capacity; he thus does not enjoy a network of loyalists 
within the MEA bureaucracy, a break with tradition if the NSA 
position becomes more inter-ministerial in nature.  Unlike 
Dixit, who served as MEA spokesman earlier in his career, 
Narayanan also has not cultivated the Delhi press corps. 
When Narayanan took the position of Special Adviser to the 
PM, he made it clear that he had no interest in challenging 
Dixit for his "executive duties," and had no interest in the 
"glamorous part of the (NSA) job," an attitude that may 
dovetail with whatever NSA/NSC restructuring emerges. 
 
Early Tests Likely 
------------------ 
 
9.  (C) If Narayanan continues as NSA, he will face an early 
test as both Intelligence Bureau head AK Doval and Research 
and Analysis Wing chief CD Sahay are due to retire on or 
about January 30.  The IB succession will probably be 
straightforward, but some Indian press accounts suggest that 
RAW officers are concerned that Narayanan, whose IB 
background makes him by definition and institutionally 
skeptical of RAW, would look outside the organization for 
Sahay's successor, and might bring in a senior IB officer for 
the job. 
 
10.  (C) Narayanan -- or whoever becomes NSA on a permanent 
basis -- will also have his hands full with other 
intelligence issues, not the least of which is the ongoing 
review of RAW operations that began with last spring's 
revelation that RAW Joint Secretary Rabinder Singh had been 
spiriting away classified information before he spirited 
himself out of the country.  Media reports of his supposed 
whereabouts surface from time to time, most recently 
suggesting he was spotted in Virginia in December.  If 
Narayanan does become NSA, long-serving RAW officers may try 
to obstruct reforms initiated by a former IB head. 
 
11.  (C) If he inherits Dixit's diplomatic role with 
Pakistan, China, and the US, Narayanan will suffer several 
disadvantages, the most important of which is a lack of 
practical negotiating experience.  As demonstrated in his 
effective dialogue with Tariq Aziz and with the US over NSSP, 
Dixit was one of India's most respected diplomatic 
practitioners -- well versed in the arts of listening, 
compromise, and working to a bottom line.  As a former 
Ambassador to all of India's neighbors, and an Urdu speaker 
as well, Dixit was uniquely equipped to manage India's 
regional relationships. 
 
An Intelligence Professional 
---------------------------- 
 
12.  (C) Narayanan joined the Indian Police Service (IPS) in 
1955 and spent his first four years with the IPS in Tamil 
Nadu.  Calm, analytical, discreet, and cosmopolitan, he comes 
across as a classic intelligence analyst type.  It is not 
unusual for a conversation with Narayanan to consist largely 
of questions.  Although his writings have occasionally been 
critical of "the West," he has not shown visceral anti-US 
attitudes.  His many years of service to the Gandhi family 
earned him his post as Special Advisor, where he serves as a 
behind-the-scenes coordinator for intelligence activity -- 
including India's Northeast and Nepal, areas of concern to 
New Delhi on a daily basis.  His position as Special Advisor 
carries with it the rank of Minister of State.  As Special 
Advisor, Narayanan was open, accessible, and friendly to 
Embassy officials, but usually in a listening mode. 
 
13.  (C) He became one of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's 
confidants after moving to the IB, India's primary internal 
intelligence service, in 1960.  Narayanan's experience in 
Tamil Nadu made him an effective figure in intelligence 
activities involving Sri Lankan Tamil issues after Rajiv 
Gandhi appointed him IB Director in 1987.  US Consulate 
General Chennai officials recall his repeatedly expressed and 
profound distaste for the LTTE.  He is also known as an 
expert on the Indian Left and communism. 
 
14.  (C) In 1990, Prime Minister VP Singh moved Narayanan 
from the IB to become Chairman of the Joint Intelligence 
Committee and Secretary of the National Security Council. 
Less than a year later, Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar, whose 
government was supported by the Congress Party, reappointed 
him as IB head, and Narayanan retired from that post in 1992. 
 After retirement, he served as Senior Advisor on National 
Security Affairs to Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and as a 
member of Prime Minister Vajpayee's NSAB from 1998-2001.  He 
also served on two task forces on intelligence and internal 
security set up in the aftermath of the 1999 Kargil War. 
Narayanan is also a founding, but now inactive, member of the 
Center for Security Analysis, a Chennai-based think tank. 
15.  (C) Narayanan once related to CG/Chennai an anecdote 
from his days as Senior Advisor to PM Rao: Narayanan outlined 
how he had written a report and gave it to an aide to deliver 
to the PM.  After reading the report, the aide commented that 
he could not deliver such information, at which Narayanan 
said that he responded, "I am not here to please, but rather 
to inform the PM." 
 
Need for "Holistic Synergy" on Kashmir, Pakistan 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
16.  (C) During his retirement years, Narayanan revealed 
particular interest in Pakistan and Kashmir through weekly 
columns he contributed to "Asian Age" (expanded excerpts 
reftel).  In them, he argued that only a small minority of 
Kashmiris supported the militancy, and most were angered that 
the 2002 elections did not lead to a drop in violence.  An 
"early solution appears difficult," he wrote in January 2004, 
and in March he expanded that "Neither 'cleverness' nor 
'shortcuts' can help.  Creating a holistic synergy is 
necessary, (but) each side is more intent on blaming the 
other of being obstructive ... than in progressing the 
dialogue.  Neither side has been able to rise above narrow 
interpretations and preoccupations." 
 
Personal Data 
------------- 
 
17.  (C) Born on March 10, 1934 to a Kerala Nair 
(non-Brahmin, upper caste) family, Narayanan completed his 
bachelor's degree at Madras Christian College.  He and his 
wife Vijaya, also a Keralite, have a son, Vijay, and a 
daughter, Meena.  Their son-in-law Ajit Nambiar is Chairman 
and Managing Director of BPL Ltd, a consumer-durable 
manufacturing company, on whose board of directors Narayanan 
has served.  After retirement, Narayanan made Chennai his 
permanent home, and his wife remains there, as does his 
mother.  When he became Special Adviser to PM Singh, he often 
spent weekends in Chennai, which will probably cease if he 
becomes NSA on a permanent basis. 
 
18.  (C) According to a January 17 "Outlook" weekly profile 
by its foreign affairs correspondent V Sudarshan, Narayanan 
is a teetotaler and a fitness buff.  He also travels to 
Kerala every winter to visit the Hindu temple in Sabarimala, 
South India's largest pilgrimage site.  Narayanan has visited 
the US several times, and has delivered speeches and lectures 
in excellent English.  He is an honorary member of the 
International Association of Chiefs of Police, a rare 
distinction. 
 
19.  (C) Along with Principal Secretary TKA Nair, Narayanan 
constitutes what is now a Keralite "mafia" in the PMO.  In a 
bureaucratic culture dominated by North Indian Hindi 
speakers, this Keralite lock on the PM's inner bureaucratic 
circle represents something of an anomaly, which could in the 
long term create new faultlines around the Prime Minister. 
MULFORD