US embassy cable - 05MANAMA58

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BA, IZ 
SUBJECT: FORMIN AGREES ON NEED FOR PUBLIC STATEMENTS OF 
SUPPORT FOR IRAQ ELECTIONS 
 
REF: STATE 4932 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (S) In response to the Ambassador's January 11 delivery 
of reftel demarche on Iraqi elections, Foreign Minister 
Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa quickly agreed to make 
public statements in support of the elections.  He said that 
the January 6 Iraq Neighbors conference in Amman did not 
result in a statement as "clear and forceful" as he would 
have liked regarding support for the elections.  In Amman, he 
had proposed that the group issue a statement in Baghdad in 
order to speak directly to the Iraqi people.  Jordanian 
Foreign Minister Al Mulki was ready to do it but Iraqi 
Foreign Minister Zebari was "hesitant" about the idea. 
Addressing sectarian concerns, Zebari had said that no one 
group in Iraq had the right to rule another.  Shaikh Mohammed 
complained that there were problems in Bahrain's 
communication with Iraq's Sunnis; Iraq's Shia have been more 
active with Bahrain.  End Summary. 
 
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Speaking Clearly and Forcefully - In Baghdad? 
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2.  (S) Ambassador January 11 delivered reftel demarche on 
underscoring the importance of Iraqi elections moving forward 
as scheduled to Foreign Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak 
Al Khalifa.  The Ambassador emphasized that public 
expressions of support for the elections were most important 
and noted that Egyptian President Mubarak had done so twice 
in recent days.  The Minister replied, "yes, I will do that." 
 He continued that the aims of the January 6 Iraq Neighbors 
conference in Amman were (1) to ensure that neighboring 
countries, particularly Syria and Iran, not interfere in 
Iraq's domestic affairs, and (2) to support the elections 
"clearly and forcefully;" that is, to urge all Iraqis to 
participate and all of Iraq's neighbors to support them.  He 
commented that the conference did not accomplish these aims 
as well as it could have. 
 
3.  (S) Shaikh Mohammed said that the only initiatives on the 
agenda in Amman were from Bahrain - the King's previously 
proposed invitation for an Iraqi moderates conference in 
Manama, and Shaikh Mohammed's suggestion that meeting chair 
Jordanian Foreign Minister Al Mulki issue a public statement 
of support in Baghdad.  Representatives of the UN and Arab 
League could be present at the announcement.  The other 
ministers agreed it was a good idea but Iraqi Foreign 
Minister Zebari was hesitant, though he did not reject the 
proposal outright.  Shaikh Mohammed reiterated that he is 
ready to go to Baghdad at any time for this purpose.  Such a 
statement would appeal directly to the Iraqi people, saying 
that the elections are a unique opportunity and they should 
take advantage of it. 
 
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No One Group Has Right to Rule Others 
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4.  (S) In response to the Ambassador's question, the Foreign 
Minister said that Zebari was very optimistic about the 
elections, expecting up to 8 million voters to participate. 
Regarding Iraq's Sunnis, the Foreign Minister said that 
Zebari had told the conference that the "minority would not 
rule the majority and the majority would not rule the 
minority."  He had said the constitutional principle was that 
no one group had the right to rule others.  The Ambassador 
commented that SCIRI leader Al Hakim had said the right 
things during his recent visit to Bahrain.  Shaikh Mohammed 
agreed and noted that many Iraqi Shia had come to Bahrain 
(Hakim's son Amer Abdul Aziz Al Hakim is here now), but 
Iraq's Sunnis had not done so.  He said there were problems 
in Bahrain's communication with the Sunnis.  (Note:  IIG 
President Yawar visited Bahrain for several weeks in 
November.  End Note.)  The Ambassador stated that as many 
Sunnis as possible should participate in the elections so 
they feel they have a stake in Iraq's future. 
 
5.  (S) The Minister stated that this election will have a 
major impact on the future of the region.  The participation 
of Turkey and Iran in the neighbors meetings is important. 
He noted that some Arabs feel hesitant about Zebari.  They 
were surprised when he spoke in English at the Sharm meeting 
rather than in Arabic.  Shaikh Mohammed said, "you cannot 
pull Iraq from the Arab world."  The majority of the 
population - Sunni and Shia - are Arabs, not Kurds, Turks, or 
Persians.  Despite the concerns, Zebari, he said, is a "good, 
reasonable, down-to-earth" man. 
 
6.  (S) Shaikh Mohammed stated that Iran was strong in Basra 
but other areas of the country are opposed to Iranian 
interference.  There are fears of Iran's expansionist 
tendencies in Iraq and throughout the region.  He commented 
that the Iranian government should be more concerned with 
providing good education and clean water to its citizens than 
about spending billions on the military. 
 
7.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
MONROE