US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV198

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000198 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL, ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
SUBJECT: DESPITE UNITY GOVERNMENT, SHARON STILL STRAINING 
TO PASS BUDGET 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) A division among the 13 Likud disengagement foes in 
the Knesset may prompt several to give Prime Minister Sharon 
the eight or so votes he needs to ensure first-reading 
passage of the 2005 budget.  The 13, known as "the rebels," 
have threatened to vote against the budget -- as they did 
against forming the government -- as a means of derailing 
Sharon's disengagement plan.  While his government nominally 
controls 66 Knesset seats, opposition by the 13 rebels would 
leave Sharon scrambling to construct a simple majority from a 
combination of opposition "pro" votes and abstentions.  The 
Knesset opens debate on the budget late January 11 and is 
scheduled to vote on it in a first reading January 12. 
 
2.  (C) According to Likud rebel MK Gilad Erdan (strictly 
protect), some of the rebels may support Sharon on the budget 
to prevent early elections, something many of them fear.  Few 
observers believe that Likud would retain its 40 Knesset 
seats in new elections, which could thus cost some MKs their 
seats.  He also discounted what he referred to as "media 
hype" that the Likud Party itself could split, joking that 
the Likud name is like "Coca Cola," and no one wants to split 
from such a popular party.  Erdan noted that some of the 
rebels want to separate their opposition to disengagement 
from their basic support for the budget.  Erdan predicted 
that in the end, therefore, Sharon would be able to pass his 
budget.  A noted academic also told the Ambassador that he 
was seeing gaps in the rebels' ranks and predicted that 
Sharon would try to "pick them off one by one." 
 
3.  (C) Separately, Or Pearl, assistant to Likud 
disengagement foe MK Ehud Yatom, said that while several of 
the rebels have indicated an intention to support Sharon on 
the budget to avoid elections, they may end up following the 
forceful lead of arch disengagement foe Uzi Landau, who will 
likely vote against the budget.  Pearl highlighted that the 
rebels have been lately voting as a bloc and will probably 
meet January 12 prior to the budget vote to decide on a 
uniform position. 
 
4.  (C) Without the rebels, Sharon can count on some 53-54 
MKs from his new coalition and several mavericks from outside 
to support the 2005 budget.  The 14 Shinui MKs, the six 
National Religious Party MKs, the six National Union Party 
MKs, and up to eight MKs from the Arab parties, will probably 
oppose the budget.  The 11 Shas MKs and Yahad's six MKs will 
either vote against the budget or abstain.  Support of the 
pro-disengagement Yahad party and the United Arab List's two 
abstentions saved Sharon's government in the January 10 vote, 
but these parties' economic policies may prevent them from 
supporting Sharon on the budget.  In addition, Am Ehad, while 
formally part of the coalition since it merged with Labor 
January 1, has indicated it cannot support Sharon's budget. 
 
 
 
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