US embassy cable - 88BOGOTA18358

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 18358 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PINS, PTER, MOPS, PGOV, CO 
SUBJECT: DESTRUCTION OF FARC'S 45TH FRONT AND OTHER 
         RECENT FARC LOSSES 
 
REF: A. BOGOTA 18283; B. BOGOTA 17707 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  A RARE SUCCESS BY THE ARMY AGAINST 
THE FARC GUERRILLAS IN META LAST MONTH (REF B), AND 
FARC LOSSES DURING THEIR SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER 
OFFENSIVES APPEAR TO HAVE RESULTED IN A REDUCTION OF 
THEIR PREVIOUS HIGH RATE OF ATTACKS.  THESE LOSSES MAY 
HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THEIR SUDDEN RENEWAL OF 
INTEREST IN POLITICAL INITIATIVES, SUCH AS THE PEACE 
PLAN PROPOSED BY CONSERVATIVE SENATOR LEYVA DURAN 
(REF A).  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  IN ITS DECEMBER 9 ISSUE, "EL TIEMPO" 
PUBLISHED A DETAILED REPORT THAT THE ARMY'S VII 
BRIGADE TROOPS SUCCEEDED NOVEMBER 26 IN DISMANTLING 
AND RENDERING COMBAT INEFFECTIVE THE ENCAMPMENT OF THE 
FARC'S 45TH FRONT IN ARIARI, META DEPARTMENT (SEE 
REFTEL).  ACCORDING TO THE ARTICLE, THE ATTACK WAS 
SUPPORTED BY THREE BLACK HAWK HELICOPTERS AND CAUGHT 
THE GUERRILLAS BY SURPRISE.  THE ACCOUNT SAYS THAT THE 
GUERRILLAS LOST 21 KILLED IN THAT ACTION, MOST FROM 
BLASTS BY RIFLE-LAUNCHED GRENADES AS THE GUERRILLAS 
TRIED TO FLEE.  GUERRILLA CASUALTIES INCLUDED THE 
LEADER OF THE FARC'S 45TH FRONT, BUT SOME 30 SURVIVING 
GUERRILLAS MANAGED TO FLEE THE AREA IN A ROUT. 
 
3.  (U)  BRIGADIER GENERAL HAROLD BEDOYA PIZARRO, 
COMMANDER OF THE ARMY'S VII BRIGADE WAS QUOTED AS 
SAYING THAT THE ARMY WILL REMAIN IN THE ARARI ZONE TO 
"CONTINUE HELPING ITS INHABITANTS FIGHT OFF THE FARC 
CRIMINALS, WHO FOR YEARS HAVE WROUGHT ONLY POVERTY, 
DESOLATION AND VIOLENCE TO PEACEFUL SETTLERS IN THAT 
REGION." 
 
4.  (U)  WEEKLY "SEMANA" NEWS MAGAZINE PUBLISHED A 
BLURB ON THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 9 REPORTING FARC LOSSES 
INCURRED IN THE SERIES OF OFFENSIVES LAUNCHED BY THAT 
GROUP AFTER SEPTEMBER 1.  QUOTING "NATIONAL AND 
REGIONAL AUTHORITIES," SEMANA REPORTED THAT DURING 
THIS THREE MONTH PERIOD THE FARC LOST 42 MEN KILLED, 
87 WOUNDED, AND 242 WEAPONS OF DIFFERENT TYPES 
CAPTURED BY THE ARMED FORCES.  THE ARTICLE ALSO 
REPORTED THAT FARC COLUMNS HAVE BEEN FORCED TO ABANDON 
15 ENCAMPMENTS AND HAVE REVEALED THE LOCATION OF 12 OF 
THEIR 45 FRONTS. 
 
5.  (C)  COMMENT:  EVEN MAKING ALLOWANCES FOR POSSIBLY 
EXAGGERATED MILITARY REPORTING THAT LED TO THE 
NEWSPAPER ACCOUNTS, IT APPEARS THAT THE MILITARY HAS 
CHALKED UP A RARE SUCCESS BASED ON A WELL EXECUTED 
OPERATION IN META.  FARC LOSSES DURING THEIR SEPTEMBER 
AND OCTOBER OFFENSIVES MAY EXPLAIN GOC THINKING, AS 
REVEALED RECENTLY BY PRESIDENTIAL COUNSELORS RAFAEL 
AND RODRIGO PARDO ON SEPARATE OCCASIONS TO EMBOFFS, 
THAT THE GUERRILLAS COULD NOT KEEP UP THEIR HIGH RATE 
OF ACTIONS, AND WOULD LIKELY TURN TO POLITICAL 
INITIATIVES.  WE CAN SEE THE LATTER ALREADY UNDERWAY 
WITH THE FARC/M-19 TRYING TO USE THE LEYVA DURAN PEACE 
PLAN TO PRESSURE THE GOC INTO A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT 
(SEE BOGOTA 18283). 
 
 
MCNAMARA