US embassy cable - 05MANAMA50

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000050 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS USTR FOR J BUNTIN 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/ONE LOUSTAUNAU AND HOFFMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, ETRD, BA 
SUBJECT: CABINET RESHUFFLE EXPECTED VERY SOON; PM'S MEN MAY 
BE MOVING OUT 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) The Bahraini press January 10 reported rumors of a 
cabinet shuffle to be announced within days or hours.  While 
the press reports varied somewhat, it appear, if accurate, 
that five ministers would leave, two new ministers would be 
appointed, four ministers moved to new positions, two 
ministries closed, and ten ministries impacted by mergers or 
splits.  Those reportedly departing would be Minister of 
Finance and National Economy (MOFNE) Saif, Minister of 
Cabinet Affairs Mutawwa, Minister of Information Hamar, 
Minister of Oil Shaikh Isa, and Minister of State Shoala. 
(Shaikh Isa told the Ambassador today he is not stepping 
down.)  Joining the cabinet would be Bahrain Monetary Agency 
(BMA) Governor Shaikh Ahmed as MOFNE and University of 
Bahrain professor Fatima Al Belooshi as Minister of Social 
Affairs.  Al Belooshi would be the second woman in the 
cabinet.  The net result of the shuffle, if it plays out as 
described in the press, would be a diminution of PM Shaikh 
Khalifa's influence and increase in King Hamad and Crown 
Prince Salman's power within the cabinet.  The PM may have 
agreed to the changes on the condition that his son, Minister 
of Transportation Shaikh Ali, be given the additional title 
of deputy Prime Minister.  End Summary. 
 
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Many Changes in "Limited" Shuffle 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Newspapers January 10 were abuzz with reports of a 
planned cabinet reshuffle to be announced "within days or 
hours."  The Cabinet discussed the issue during its regular 
January 9 session, chaired by Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa 
bin Salman Al Khalifa.  While the press reports were not 
identical, they agreed on many of the major items. 
 
3.  (SBU) While reports characterize the reshuffle as 
limited, the end result would be five (of 24) ministers 
sacked, two new ministers, four ministers moved to new 
positions in the cabinet, two ministries dissolved, and ten 
ministries impacted by either mergers or splits.  In 
addition, the number of deputy prime ministers would increase 
from two to four.  One of the new ministers is said to be 
University of Bahrain professor Fatima Al Belooshi as 
Minister of Social Affairs.  She would join Minister of 
Health Nada Haffadh as the only women ministers.  The other 
new minister is Shaikh Ahmed bin Mohammed Al Khalifa as 
Minister of Finance and National Economy.  He is currently 
the Governor of the BMA, Bahrain's central bank. 
 
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Five Ministers Are Out 
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4.  (SBU) The sackings have attracted the most attention. 
According to press reports, those leaving the cabinet are: 
 
-- Minister of Finance and National Economy Abdulla Saif (who 
negotiated and signed the bilateral free trade agreement); 
-- Minister of Cabinet Affairs Mohammed Mutawwa; 
-- Minister of Information Nabeel Hamar; 
-- Minister of Oil Shaikh Isa bin Ali Al Khalifa; and 
-- Minister of State Abdul Nabi Al Shoala. 
 
Saif will be named Secretary General of the Economic 
Development Board (with minister rank), Mutawwa is rumored to 
be appointed Bahrain's Ambassador to France, Hamar could be 
an advisor to King Hamad or head of a government 
organization, and Shaikh Isa and Shoala are supposed to 
depart government service altogether. 
 
5.  (C) However, in a January 10 phone call, Minister of Oil 
Shaikh Isa told the Ambassador that contrary to the press 
reports, he would remain in the cabinet as Minister of Oil. 
"I tried to retire," he said.  He stated that the new cabinet 
would be sworn in on Tuesday, January 11, and he scheduled a 
previously requested meeting with the Ambassador on the same 
day. 
 
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Four Ministers Moving About 
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6.  (SBU) Four ministers will move to new positions in the 
cabinet.  Minister of Commerce Ali Saleh will become Minister 
of Municipalities and Agriculture, replacing Mohammed Al 
Sitry.  Al Sitry will become minister of a newly merged 
Ministry of Justice and Islamic Affairs.  Current Minister of 
Justice Jawad Al Arrayed will become a deputy Prime Minister, 
and Minister of Islamic Affairs and Deputy PM Shaikh Abdulla 
bin Khalid Al Khalifa will remain as deputy PM but lose the 
Islamic Affairs portfolio. 
 
7.  (SBU) The Ministries of Information and Cabinet Affairs 
will be dissolved.  There has been discussion for some time 
about breaking the Ministry of Information into its component 
parts and establishing them as government agencies or 
government-owned companies.  The Ministry will operate for 
the time being under the General Organization for Youth and 
Sport (GOYS), though there is no indication GOYS will be a 
permanent home.  There has been no comment on the fate of 
current employees of the Ministry of Cabinet Affairs, but its 
functions could be folded into the Prime Ministry. 
 
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Mergers, Acquisitions, and Splits 
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8.  (SBU) A number of ministries would merge or split.  The 
Ministries of Industry and Commerce will be consolidated 
under current Minister of Industry Hassan Fakhro.  The 
Ministries of Justice and Religious Affairs will be merged 
into one, and so returned to the status quo ante of two years 
ago when there was just one ministry.  The Ministry of 
Electricity and Water will acquire the Ministry of Oil, and 
current Minister of Electricity and Water Shaikh Abdulla bin 
Salman Al Khalifa will be head of the larger ministry.  The 
Public Works portfolio will be split off from the Ministry of 
Housing and Public Works and folded into a new Ministry of 
Public Works and Tenders under current Minister of State for 
Tenders Abdul Hussein Mirza.  The Ministry of Labor and 
Social Affairs will be split, with current Minister Majid Al 
Alawi staying on as Minister of Labor and Fatima Al Belooshi 
becoming Minister of Social Affairs. 
 
9.  (SBU) The two current deputy prime ministers, Shaikh 
Abdulla bin Khalid and Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Shaikh 
Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa, will retain their positions. 
 They will be joined by current Minister of Justice Jawad Al 
Arrayed, who will lose the Justice portfolio, and current 
Minister of Transportation Shaikh Ali bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, 
who will be both deputy PM and Transport minister.  (Note: 
Shaikh Ali is PM Khalifa's son.  End Note.) 
 
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Comment 
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10.  (C) Keeping in mind that at this moment all the 
ministerial moves are press speculation, it appears that the 
PM comes out the loser.  Of the five rumored to be leaving 
the cabinet, three are Shaikh Khalifa's men:  Mutawwa, Saif, 
and Shoala.  Cabinet newcomer BMA Governor Shaikh Ahmed is 
known to be very close to Crown Prince Salman (and, 
therefore, King Hamad).  Of those who have bolstered their 
portfolios, Fakhro and Mirza also are in the King and Crown 
Prince's camp.  Sitry, a Shia, has ties with the Shia bloc 
inside the lower house of parliament, the Council of 
Representatives, a group the King is seeking to encourage for 
having defied Shia calls for boycotting the 2002 
parliamentary elections.  Kicking Minister of Justice Jawad 
Al Arrayed upstairs to be deputy PM would be a loss for us: 
he is a reformer who led the GOB delegation on the 
USG-supported Southern Methodist University "Rule of Law" 
program in the U.S. in September 2004.  Knowing he was being 
squeezed, the PM may have agreed to the changes on one 
condition:  that his son, Shaikh Ali, be made deputy PM in 
addition to being Minister of Transportation.  The PM had 
worked for years to appoint Shaikh Ali Minister of Interior, 
but these hopes were dashed when the King engineered the 
appointment of Shaikh Rashed last spring.  If the cabinet 
shuffle plays out as described in the press, PM Khalifa will 
find himself with fewer friends and bases of support at the 
cabinet table. 
 
MONROE