US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU412

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000412 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
LONDON FOR RIEGEL 
 
E.O. 12958:    N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SUPPORTS GOVERNMENT IN RATIFYING 
STATE OF EMERGENCY 
 
REF(S): A)  KATHMANDU 0333 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) SUMMARY:   The Lower House of Parliament 
ratified the state of national emergency by well over 
the two-thirds majority necessary to continue the 
emergency for another three months.  The three largest 
Opposition parties voted with the ruling Nepali Congress 
Party for ratification after Communist Party of Nepal - 
United Marxist Leninist (UML) leader Madhav Nepal 
extracted several concessions--including an agreement to 
amend the Constitution to allow for an interim all-party 
government during national elections--from Prime 
Minister Deuba and Nepali Congress Party President G.P. 
Koirala.  This rare display of national unity is a 
heartening departure from the more typical politics of 
self-interest that has helped weaken popular confidence 
in democracy.  End summary. 
 
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A HARD DAY'S NIGHT AT PARLIAMENT 
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2.  (U)  After an all-day session, the House of 
Representatives in Parliament voted at 8:00 p.m. Feb. 21 
to ratify the state of national emergency, declared by 
King Gyanendra November 26, allowing its continuation 
for an additional three months.  Of the 205-member 
House, 194 MPs voted for ratification; 7 (from three 
small far-left parties) voted against; 3 MPs were 
absent; and 1 (Speaker Taranath Ranabhat) did not vote. 
 
3.  (U) MPs from the three largest Opposition parties-- 
the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist 
(UML); the Rastriya Prajatantra Pakshye (RPP); and the 
Nepal Sadbhavana Pakshye (NSP) all voted with the 
governing Nepali Congress (NC) Party.  Support from the 
UML, which controls 64 seats in the House to the Nepali 
Congress' 113, was critical to Prime Minister Sher 
Bahadur Deuba's bid for ratification, which requires a 
two-thirds majority vote for passage. 
 
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BACKROOM WHEELING, DEALING 
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4.  (SBU)  Although the party was not expected to block 
ratification, up until the actual vote, the UML had not 
publicly revealed its thinking on the emergency.  (Some 
observers speculated its MPs might boycott the vote, 
leaving the Nepali Congress with a two-thirds majority 
of MPs present, thereby ensuring ratification of the 
emergency without the UML actually having to articulate 
support for the Government.)  According to Jhala Nath 
Khanal, head of the UML's International Department, the 
party had already consulted with and obtained consensus 
from the RPP and the NSP on what changes (i.e., 
concessions) from the Government of Nepal (GON) to ask 
for as part of the ratification vote.  The UML had 
already approached both Nepali Congress President and 
former Prime Minister G. P. Koirala and current Prime 
Minister Deuba separately with a similar pitch.  Deuba 
"was a bit hesitant," Khanal said, fearing that former 
PM and current Nepali Congress Party President G.P. 
Koirala would use concessions granted to the Opposition 
as ammunition in his ongoing efforts to oust Deuba. 
 
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KOIRALA SAYS NEPALI CONGRESS MUST CLEAN HOUSE 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (U) The UML's proposed reforms include long-pending 
anti-corruption legislation; legislation aimed at 
expanding rights for women and members of the lower 
castes; and amendments to the Constitution to allow for 
an all-party interim government during national 
elections and at times of national crisis.  The 
Opposition also was pushing the GON to define more 
clearly the parameters of the emergency, including which 
activities are banned or permitted.  (Specifically, the 
Opposition is hoping to have lifted for mainstream 
political parties an indefinite, selectively applied ban 
on political meetings.) 
 
6.  (U)  G.P. Koirala's address to Parliament Feb. 21 
indicated agreement--at least for now--with many of the 
Opposition's proposed reforms.  Corruption should be 
vigorously prosecuted, and the considerable assets 
amassed by many former Ministers should be carefully 
scrutinized, he said, beginning with the Nepali Congress 
Party.  (He stopped short of saying the considerable 
assets of former Prime Ministers should undergo similar 
scrutiny.)  The size of the current cabinet should be 
cut by half--to about 10 percent of the membership of 
the Lower House.  All parties should unite together in 
"a broader democratic alliance" to confront the socio- 
economic problems in the country.  Finally, MPs should 
be prepared to consider appropriate amendments to the 
Constitution. 
 
7.  (SBU)  In his speech UML General Secretary and 
Opposition Leader Madhav Nepal condemned Maoist violence 
and called on the insurgents to resume negotiations. 
But he also criticized the GON for failing to deliver 
promised reforms and economic development.  He asked for 
a public commitment from the PM for greater progress on 
these fronts.  The session then broke up just before the 
PM was scheduled to speak while Madhav Nepal, along with 
Deuba and Koirala, huddled together in the lobby, 
according to a UML Central Committee member.  During 
that conversation, Deuba reportedly gave Koirala and 
Nepal the chance to look over and approve the draft of 
his closing speech before the vote. 
 
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DEUBA AGREES TO CONSIDER AMENDING CONSTITUION 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
8.  (U)  In Deuba's closing remarks before the House, he 
committed to consider suggestions for amending the 
Constitution and to present a thorough set of reforms, 
including anti-corruption and administrative reform 
legislation, during the current session of Parliament. 
In addition, he agreed to issue clearer regulations 
defining proscribed and permitted activities during the 
state of emergency.  With these concessions in hand, the 
80 Opposition MPs from the UML, RPP, and NSP voted with 
their Nepali Congress colleagues to ratify the 
emergency. 
 
9.  (SBU) When asked whether he expected Deuba to honor 
those commitments, especially suggested amendments that 
would allow a national government, the UML's Khanal said 
the PM had "theoretically" agreed to the proposals.  The 
UML will have to wait and see how that theoretical 
acceptance translates into action when/if the GON brings 
forward the amendments.  Other UML proposals, such as a 
comprehensive land reform package, will be harder for 
the Nepali Congress Party, which counts many wealthy 
landlords among its members, to swallow, Khanal 
predicted.  He added that the Nepali Congress has 
previously broken commitments made to the UML on several 
occasions; this time may be no different.  (Note: 
Already variations in interpretation regarding what 
exactly Deuba committed to are emerging.  For example, 
although the UML proposed amendments allowing an all- 
party interim government both during times of national 
crisis and during national elections, two Nepali 
Congress MPs both told us Deuba had undertaken to 
consider the possibility of an interim government during 
national elections only.  End note.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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10.  (SBU)  Madhav Nepal had quietly let it be known 
that the UML would not obstruct ratification of the 
emergency, but Deuba obviously wanted the explicit 
support of the Opposition to show a united front.  The 
Opposition leader clearly saw an opportunity to wring 
some public concessions from the PM--even if his own 
people see scant chance of their fulfillment--before 
consenting.  The shocking brutality of the attacks in 
Achham, which left nearly 140 dead in just a few hours, 
undoubtedly strengthened Deuba's hand in pushing for 
ratification of the emergency.  The Maoists have shown 
they are resolved to fight; mainstream political leaders 
are apparently figuring out at long last that they will 
have to show resolve as well.  Even Koirala appears to 
have got the message to put his personal ambitions on 
hold for the time being and desist from, at least for 
now, the usual intra-party maneuvering.  This rare 
display of national unity is a heartening departure from 
the more typical politics of self-interest that has 
helped weaken popular confidence in democracy.  End 
comment. 
 
Malinowski