US embassy cable - 05PARIS152

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000152 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
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BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE 
IRAQ - VIOLENCE BEFORE ELECTIONS 
PARIS - MONDAY, JANUARY 10, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE 
2. IRAQ - VIOLENCE BEFORE ELECTIONS 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
TWO MAJOR STORIES DOMINATE TODAY'S FRONT PAGES AND 
COMMENTARIES: THE PROJECTED VICTORY BY MAHMOUD ABBAS IN 
PALESTINE AND WHAT THIS MAY MEAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE 
PROCESS, AND THE SITUATION IN IRAQ, WEEKS BEFORE THE 
ELECTIONS, WHICH ACCORDING TO CATHOLIC LA CROIX, COULD BE 
COMPROMISED BY VIOLENCE. 
 
IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTIONS IS WIDELY 
CONSIDERED AS A "SIGNAL OF HOPE" (LIBERATION AND LE PARISIEN) 
AND A "VOTE FOR PEACE" (LE FIGARO). COMMENTATORS AGREE THAT 
"THE ELECTION IN PALESTINE, ALONG WITH PRESIDENT BUSH'S RE- 
ELECTION AND THE NEW SHARON-PEREZ GOVERNMENT GIVE A NEW 
PERSPECTIVE TO PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST." (SEE PART C) 
 
FM BARNIER IS INTERVIEWED IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE 
PARISIEN (AND ALSO IN ENGLISH LANGUAGE THE INTERNATIONAL 
HERALD TRIBUNE): "THIS IS A VICTORY FOR DEMOCRACY, AND A FIRST 
VICTORY FOR PEACE. IN ISRAEL, SHARON IS AT A HISTORIC 
CROSSROADS, AND I BELIEVE HE WILL BE UP TO THE TASK. WE ARE IN 
A NEW CONTEXT, WITH A LEGITIMATE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, A MUCH 
MORE OPEN ISRAELI GOVERNMENT WHICH IS COMMITTED TO WITHDRAWING 
FROM GAZA, A U.S. PRESIDENT NEWLY ELECTED AND EUROPEANS WHO 
STAND UNITED AND ARE AVAILABLE. WE WANT A NEW TRANSATLANTIC 
PARTNERSHIP: THE TEST WILL LIE IN OUR COLLECTIVE ABILITY TO 
GET THE PEACE PROCESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST BACK ON TRACK." 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-ED BY ISRAELI 
AMBASSADOR NISSIM ZVILI ON THE "DIFFICULT RELATIONS BETWEEN 
FRANCE AND ISRAEL. AT LEAST WE HAVE EACH ACKNOWLEDGED THAT 
THERE IS A DEEP BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO SOCIETIES. UNFORTUNATELY 
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A DEAF-MUTE DIALOGUE. WE LISTEN TO EACH 
OTHER POLITELY, BUT EACH STICKS TO HIS GUNS.  AFTER THE 
EUPHORIA OF THE OSLO ACCORDS, WE ARE MODERATE IN OUR 
ENTHUSIASM, IN ORDER TO GIVE THE NEGOTIATIONS THEIR BEST 
CHANCE FOR SUCCESS." 
 
THE SECOND MAJOR STORY, IRAQ AND THE GROWING DAILY VIOLENCE, 
LEADS MANY COMMENTATORS TO DOUBT WHETHER THE ELECTIONS WILL BE 
ABLE TO BE CONDUCTED FAIRLY. CATHOLIC LA CROIX HEADLINES 
"IRAQI ELECTIONS UNDERMINED BY VIOLENCE" AND INTERVIEWS PIERRE- 
JEAN LUIZARD, A RESEARCHER AT THE CNRS (THE NATIONAL CENTER 
FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH) WHO SAYS: "NO ARMY WILL BE ABLE TO 
LESSEN THE INSECURITY. IRAQ HAS BECOME A BATTLEGROUND FOR A 
CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND A FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENT, WHICH 
SEEMS TO HAVE A HOLD ON IRAQ'S SUNNI COMMUNITY AND COULD 
SPREAD. THE ATTACKS IN IRAQ HAVE WORSENED IN THE PAST THREE 
MONTHS AND KILLED A NUMBER OF FIGURES WHO MIGHT HAVE PLAYED A 
ROLE IN MANAGING THE COUNTRY. I REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT 
IRAQ." 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION CARRIES AN OP-ED BY FRANCOIS GERE OF 
THE FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS ON THE SUICIDE 
ATTACKS WHICH HAVE BEEN PLAGUING BAGHDAD. (SEE PART C) 
COMMENTATORS, WRITING ON THE DISAPPEARANCE OF LIBERATION'S 
JOURNALIST, NOTE BAGHDAD'S GROWING INSECURITY PRIOR TO THE 
ELECTIONS. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE 
 
"A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PEACE PROCESS" 
LUC DE BAROCHEZ IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/10): "THE 
MIDDLE EAST HAS ENTERED INTO AN ERA OF HOPE. PRESIDENT BUSH, 
WHO DOES NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT RE-ELECTION, HAS A FREE HAND 
TO GET MORE INVOLVED IN THE MIDDLE EAST. FRENCH FM BARNIER HAS 
INDICATED THAT `THE NEW RELATIONSHIP' BETWEEN THE AMERICANS 
AND THE EUROPEANS, AS ILLUSTRATED BY CHIRAC'S VISIT TO 
WASHINGTON IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND BUSH'S VISIT TO BRUSSELS ON 
FEBRUARY 22, COULD SERVE AS A `LEVER' TO GET THE PEACE PROCESS 
BACK ON TRACK. BUT THE ELECTION OF ABBAS MUST NOT RAISE 
INCONSIDERATE HOPES: HE IS AFTER ALL ARAFAT'S HEIR AND NOT 
VERY POPULAR IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. IF THE AMERICANS AND 
THE EUROPEANS DO NOT COMMIT THEMSELVES FURTHER, THE 
DISAPPOINTMENT WILL BE ON PAR WITH THE HOPES BORN OF THE 
ELECTION." 
 
"A WINDOW" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (01/10): "WESTERN 
NATIONS MUST HEAR THE MESSAGE SENT BY THE PALESTINIANS AND 
ACCEPT THEIR SKEPTICISM, EXPRESSED TO THEM AS WELL AS TO 
MAHMOUD ABBAS. HE WAS ELECTED WITHOUT ANY REAL OPPOSITION, BUT 
WITH THE FIRM DEMAND THAT HE GET RESULTS. THIS MEANS THAT IF 
HE IS SLOW TO ACHIEVE THEM, HE WILL BE HELD RESPONSIBLE. THE 
OFFER FOR A CONFERENCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST IN LONDON PROVES 
THAT TONY BLAIR IS AWARE OF THE URGENCY OF GRASPING THE 
OPPORTUNITY AT HAND, EVEN IF THE CONFERENCE IS NOT THE ANSWER. 
AN UNEXPECTED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY HAS OPENED IN THE MIDDLE 
EASTERN IMPASSE. THE COUNTDOWN IS ALREADY ON, BEFORE THAT 
WINDOW CLOSES OVER THE COMPROMISE WHICH ABBAS HAS LINKED TO 
HIS ELECTION." 
 
"PEACE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE" 
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/10): "NOW 
THAT PALESTINE HAS ELECTED A PRESIDENT WHO IS NOT ARAFAT, 
PEACE WITH ISRAEL IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS STAGE WE ARE 
SPEAKING OF A FRAGILE HOPE, BUT A HOPE NEVERTHELESS. IT IS 
FOUNDED ON THE FACT THAT ISRAEL AND THE U.S. ARE READY TO DEAL 
WITH ABBAS. WHOSE TASK IS IMMENSE: NAMELY HE MUST SUCCEED 
WHERE ARAFAT FAILED. THE ELECTION OF ABBAS WILL HAVE BEEN THE 
EASIEST PART. NOW THAT HE HAS BEEN ELECTED, ABBAS'S FATE IS 
VERY MUCH IN THE HANDS OF SHARON: HE CAN MAKE HIS WORK EASIER, 
OR ON THE CONTRARY MORE DIFFICULT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE U.S. 
AND EUROPE MUST GRASP THIS UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY. WE MUST 
SALUTE THIS SHOW OF PALESTINIAN DEMOCRACY AND HELP THE NEWLY- 
ELECTED PRESIDENT. AS WELL AS CONVINCE SHARON NOT TO OPPOSE 
HIM." 
 
"SHARON'S ATTITUDE WILL BE DECISIVE" 
THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUART IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (01/10): 
"HIS LACK OF A RIVAL HAS GIVEN ABBAS A CERTAIN MARGIN OF 
MANEUVER TO VOICE UNPOPULAR IDEAS SUCH AS ENDING THE ARMED 
INTIFADA. HIS SUCCESS WILL DEPEND ON ISRAEL'S DESIRE TO 
COLLABORATE WITH HIM. CAUGHT BETWEEN SHARON AND THE ARMED 
REBELLION, ABBAS WILL BE PLAYING A DIFFICULT GAME. HE WILL 
NEED TO BE CONVINCING, OR HIS POSITION AS A MODERATE WILL SOON 
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE." 
 
IRAQ - VIOLENCE BEFORE ELECTIONS 
 
"IRAQ AND THE POLICY OF SUICIDE ATTACKS" 
FRANCOIS GERE IN LEFT OF CENTER LIBERATION (01/10): "SINCE 
ALLAWI'S ELECTION, AN INSURRECTION IS RAVAGING TWO THIRDS OF 
IRAQ. THOSE IN POWER ARE MINIMIZING THE ATTACKS. IN THE PAST 
FEW MONTHS, IRAQ HAS BECOME THE THEATRE OF A VERY WORRISOME 
FORM OF ATTACK: SUICIDE-BOMBINGS. THE AIM OF THE ATTACKS 
AGAINST THE AMERICANS IS THREEFOLD: TO EMBARRASS THEM 
POLITICALLY, TO HIT THEM WHERE THEIR BIG WAR MACHINE IS MOST 
VULNERABLE AND TO ERODE THEIR MORAL. WHO ARE THE ATTACKERS? 
NOT A BUNCH OF DISPIRITED INDIVIDUALS, AS THE AUTHORITIES SAY. 
THE ATTACKERS COME FROM THREE SEPARATE GROUPS, THE SUNNI ANSAR 
AL-ISLAM, . A RADICAL GROUP OF FORMER SADDAM HUSSEIN 
SUPPORTERS AND A VAST GROUP COMPRISED OF FOREIGNERS. THEY HAVE 
A COMMON OBJECTIVE: THE AMERICANS, WHICH MAY NOT BE THE ONLY 
ONE. BUT THESE THREE GROUPS, FORTUNATELY, LACK COORDINATION. 
HEREIN LIES THEIR WEAKNESS. IRAQ IS LIKE A `FAILED STATE' 
WHERE DIFFERENT AND UNCONTROLLABLE FACTIONS ARE AT WAR. THE 
MORE INTELLIGENT ONES ARE TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE AMERICAN 
MILITARY FORCES, WHO ARE LIKE SO MANY ELEPHANTS IN A CHINA 
SHOP. THESE GROUPS, IRAQ'S NEW POLITICAL FORCE, ARE NOW ABLE 
TO TRAIN HUNDREDS OF VOLUNTEERS FOR SUICIDE ATTACKS WHICH 
REPRESENT A MAJOR DANGER FOR THE FUTURE. THEY WILL BE ABLE TO 
DISSEMINATE IN THE ARAB PENINSULA, AND CAUSE MORE 
DESTABILIZATION. NOTHING PROVES THAT THE DANGER WILL REMAIN 
CONFINED TO THAT REGION. IF WE IN EUROPE TEND TO NEGLECT THE 
EXISTENCE OF THESE SUICIDE ATTACKERS, THEY ON THE OTHER HAND 
HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN WE EXIST." LEACH